I wanted to see if the NFL has improved at drafting based on rounds over the past 14 seasons. I split it into the first seven years and the last seven years, but I did not include 2025 because rookies typically take a couple of years to produce. More wide receivers have been drafted in Round 1 recently, and the success rates have increased, as have opportunities via bet365 bonus information. It has become easier to identify elite first round wide receivers in recent years.
| Rd 1 WR | Total | Top 12 | Top 24 | Top 36 |
| 2011 – 2017 | 28 | = 9/28 = 32% | = 14/28 = 50% | = 19/28 = 68% |
| 2018 – 2024 | 32 | = 12/32 = 38% | = 19/32 = 59% | = 24/32 = 75% |
| 2011 – 2024 | 60 | = 21/60 = 35% | = 33/60 = 55% | = 43/60 = 72% |
Looking at Round 2, more wide receivers have been drafted in Round 2 recently, and the hit rates have gone down. It has not been easy to nail second round wide receivers in recent years.
| Rd 2 WR | Total | Top 12 | Top 24 | Top 36 |
| 2011 – 2017 | 27 | = 7/27 = 26% | = 10/27 = 37% | = 13/27 = 48% |
| 2018 – 2024 | 40 | = 6/40 = 15% | = 12/40 = 30% | = 15/40 = 38% |
| 2011 – 2024 | 67 | = 13/67 = 19% | = 22/67 = 33% | = 28/67 = 42% |
Looking at Round 3, basically the same wide receivers have been drafted in Round 3 in both groups, and the hit rates have gone down recently. It has not been easy to nail third round wide receivers in recent years, and the hit rates start to really go down.
| Rd 3 WR | Total | Top 12 | Top 24 | Top 36 |
| 2011 – 2017 | 29 | = 6/29 = 21% | = 6/29 = 21% | = 8/29 = 28% |
| 2018 – 2024 | 28 | = 3/28 = 11% | = 5/28 = 18% | = 6/28 = 21% |
| 2011 – 2024 | 57 | = 9/57 = 16% | = 11/57 = 19% | = 14/57 = 25% |
Looking at Round 4, fewer wide receivers have been drafted in Round 4 recently, and the hit rates have gone up. It has been easier to find fourth round wide receivers in recent years, but it is still not a good bet to hit.
| Rd 4 WR | Total | Top 12 | Top 24 | Top 36 |
| 2011 – 2017 | 37 | = 0/37 = 0% | = 0/37 = 0% | = 4/37 = 11% |
| 2018 – 2024 | 25 | = 1/25 = 4% | = 1/25 = 4% | = 4/25 = 16% |
| 2011 – 2024 | 62 | = 1/62 = 2% | = 1/62 = 2% | = 8/62 = 13% |
Looking at Round 5, fewer wide receivers have been drafted in Round 5 recently, and the hit rates have gone down. It has been harder to find fifth round wide receivers in recent years, and they are still not good bets to hit.
| Rd 5 WR | Total | Top 12 | Top 24 | Top 36 |
| 2011 – 2017 | 28 | = 3/28 = 11% | = 4/28 = 14% | = 5/28 = 18% |
| 2018 – 2024 | 24 | = 2/24 = 8% | = 3/24 = 13% | = 3/24 = 13% |
| 2011 – 2024 | 52 | = 5/52 = 10% | = 7/52 = 13% | = 8/52 = 15% |
Round 6 has seen fewer wide receivers drafted, with hit rates remaining low—these remain poor draft choices.
| Rd 6 WR | Total | Top 12 | Top 24 | Top 36 |
| 2011 – 2017 | 28 | = 0/28 = 0% | = 0/28 = 0% | = 0/28 = 0% |
| 2018 – 2024 | 36 | = 0/36 = 0% | = 0/36 = 0% | = 1/36 = 3% |
| 2011 – 2024 | 64 | = 0/64 = 0% | = 0/64 = 0% | = 1/64 = 3% |
Round 7 has had fewer wide receivers drafted and lower hit rates, continuing to make them poor bets.
| Rd 7 WR | Total | Top 12 | Top 24 | Top 36 |
| 2011 – 2017 | 30 | = 0/30 = 0% | = 2/30 = 7% | = 2/30 = 7% |
| 2018 – 2024 | 24 | = 0/24 = 0% | = 0/24 = 0% | = 1/24 = 4% |
| 2011 – 2024 | 54 | = 0/54 = 0% | = 2/54 = 4% | = 3/54 = 6% |
Grouping Rounds 3-5, there have been fewer wideouts drafted and have hit basically the same. These wideouts should not be drafted in the first two rounds of your rookie drafts.
| Rd 3 – 5 WR | Total | Top 12 | Top 24 | Top 36 |
| 2011 – 2017 | 94 | = 9/94 = 10% | = 10/94 = 11% | =17/94 = 18% |
| 2018 – 2024 | 77 | = 6/77 = 8% | = 9/77 = 12% | = 13/77 = 17% |
| 2011 – 2024 | 171 | = 15/171 = 9% | = 19/171 = 11% | = 30/171 = 18% |
Summary
If you can draft a first round wide receiver who has good analytics in the first or second round of rookie drafts, then do so. If you are looking at second round wide receivers, lower your expectations, and if you need a wideout to produce, I would trade the pick away. If you want to take a chance on one, they should be very good analytically.
Thank you for checking out my article. You can reach me on Twitter/X via @joshreedy5. And for those interested in an annual membership, visit us here for the next steps! #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #NFLDraft #DynastyFantasyFootball
