Part 1

The Colts managed to make August an extremely stressful month for fantasy managers who roster any of their key offensive position players. Anthony Richardson was named the starter behind an injured offensive line, their starting all-pro running back is in a stand-off with the front office over a new contract, their young tight end was placed on injured reserve, and all but three wide receivers were cut before the deadline. 

So what do we make of all of the chaos surrounding the Indianapolis Colts? In this two-part article series, we will examine each notable offensive player on the Colts’ roster to provide insight into this year’s production outlook, and whether dynasty managers should be actively buying, rapidly selling, or patiently holding each of these players.

Anthony Richardson

The new shiny toy of the Indianapolis offense, Anthony Richardson is primed to be the next great dual-threat quarterback in the NFL. As a prospect, Richardson is the most athletic specimen we have ever seen. But athleticism doesn’t always translate to good quarterback play — just ask Marcus Mariota, Tim Tebow, or Blaine Gabbert to name a few. Richardson’s most glaring flaw at Florida was his poor accuracy, as he managed to complete only 53.8% of his passes. 

Some people will cite his mechanics as the primary reason for this statistic, but Richardson has already made strides to improve this quality. Josh Allen recently appeared on The Pat Mcafee Show and stated that Richardson has worked with Chris Hess to improve his mechanics. Hess works with Biometric, where he digitally maps the mechanics of quarterbacks in the NFL. Josh Allen also mentioned on the show that “Anthony Richardson’s mechanics are up there” and that when he throws the ball it is a “pretty watch”. If Richardson sees any of the same improvements that Josh Allen saw after working with Hess, both Colts fans and dynasty managers alike are in for quite the treat. Richardson also now gets to work with Shane Steichen, who helped transform Jalen Hurts into a quarterback capable of leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl. 

Unfortunately, it isn’t all sunshine and rainbows for him this season, as there are a few hurdles for Richardson to climb for him to produce in Year 1. For starters, Jonathan Taylor will be out the first four games of the season, leaving a committee of unproven running backs to try to replace his production. Additionally, the Colts are battling multiple injuries at the center position. Ryan Kelly is still recovering from a foot injury and backup center, Danny Pinter, has been ruled out for the season with a broken ankle. Finally, the Colts rostered only three starting wide receivers at the cut deadline, meaning an injury to any receiver could mean waiver wire talent for Richardson to throw to.

Given the statements above, his first season is shaping up to be a heavy rushing year with an emphasis on slowly expanding the playbook and passing development. In limited preseason action, Richardson was 13/29 (44.8%) for 145 yards. If the two games he appeared in are any indication for the season ahead, we shouldn’t rely on him to do much through the air. 

I expect his stats to look eerily similar to what we saw with Justin Fields in Chicago in 2022. With this trajectory, Richardson is a clear buy in the dynasty space, but now is not the time to make an offer. The Colts offense should struggle mightily in the early stages of the season, facing a tough Jaguars team in Week 1 followed by two road games against the Texans and Ravens. After watching the rookie QB struggle for a few weeks, it should knock the price down a few pegs, and dynasty managers would be keen to buy at what could be Richardson’s lowest price over the next five years.

Jonathan Taylor

After leading the NFL in rushing in 2021, Jonathan Taylor struggled through injuries in the 2022 season. His agent then attempted to obtain a market-setting contract for the young, talented running back this offseason, which backfired and led to a stand-off between him and the Colts’ front office. Before the recent deadline, the Colts placed Taylor on the PUP list, keeping him off the field for at least the first four games of the season.

Assuming health, Taylor should remain firmly in the top 5 of your dynasty rankings at the running back position. Missing the first four games of the season isn’t the end of the world, but should Taylor be kept out for the entire season, a contending dynasty roster could quickly see its championship hopes vanish. 

My advice for contending dynasty teams that roster Taylor — sell, sell sell. If there is any opportunity to move off of the stud running back, it should be taken. The unfortunate part of this scenario is that you will likely need to take a discount compared to what a trade may have fetched earlier in the offseason. The first thing to do is to identify any teams in your league that are not in contention to win a championship this season. These are the teams that will have less concern with waiting for Taylor to return to the field. Once these teams are identified, we need to decipher which players are in the same tier as Taylor, or players a notch below him that could still prove to be vital for a championship run in 2023.

There are two reasonable versions of a trade using JT given his current status: a 1-for-1 trade, and a tier-down trade. A 1-for-1 trade is simply that, moving JT for a single player straight up. A tier-down trade is a deal meant to get both a player and some form of pick value in return. I have mapped out below some of the players that I view as potential targets for your contending teams that roster Jonathan Taylor.

Players in the same tier: Jahmyr Gibbs, Tony Pollard, and Saquon Barkley.

Players in the same tier (but at WR): Jaylen Waddle, A.J. Brown, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson.

Players to target in the tier(s) below Taylor: Travis Etienne, Rhamondre Stevenson, Nick Chubb, Javonte Williams, Drake London, Tyreek Hill, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Deon Jackson, Zack Moss, and Evan Hull

The remaining running backs on the roster are expected to pick up and split the workload during Taylor’s absence. Of the three, Evan Hull is the only one worth rostering. The Colts are liking what they are seeing from the rookie, and he will have every opportunity to impress the coaching staff early in the season. Any time a rookie running back is slated to get on the field early in his career, dynasty managers should be paying very close attention. Hull was a standout player during his time at Northwestern, amassing 2,732 yards and 16 touchdowns over his final two seasons. He also posted a 9.32 RAS score (out of 10) as a prospect. If he gets on the field and produces anywhere close to what he did in college, the Colts may feel a little bit different about trading Jonathan Taylor for assets that would help them quickly turn around a rebuilding roster.

If you roster any of these three running backs, I recommend selling them to anyone willing to buy. I would trade all of them for a 3rd round pick if given the chance, and Hull is a player that some people might pay a late 2nd for at some point during the first four weeks. If Taylor ends up being out longer than we are currently expecting, I believe it is far more likely that the Colts look to sign Kareem Hunt, a player they hosted for a visit in early August. 

Thank you for reading part one of this two-article series on the current state of the Colts’ skill position players. Stay tuned for the second article of this series, which will dive deeper into the Colts wide receiver and tight end groups and advise you on what to do with each of those players.  If you have any thoughts or questions and would like to discuss them, you can reach out to me on Twitter @Evan_Kerr_. #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding