Welcome back to Factory AccuRankings Analysis, the series where I will be giving you guys a closer look into our member-exclusive DFF consensus rankings. The full rankings are available on our website at dynastyfootballfactory.com. By purchasing our annual membership, you’ll get full access to our entire staff of creators and editors in the DFF discord on top of all the member-exclusive articles, and of course, the centerpiece of this series, the DFF AccuRankings. We also have extremely comprehensive Devy rankings as well, which I can attest are extremely hard to come by online. In this edition, I’ll be sharing some notable changes in the final update leading up to the kickoff of the 2023 NFL season.
RISER OF THE WEEK
Javonte Williams (+11), #56 OVR, RB12
It’s been a roller-coaster start in the NFL for Javonte Williams, but his final mark on the off-season AccuRankings record will be a strongly positive one. Javonte leapfrogged three running backs to return to Dynasty RB1 status in this update and has earned himself a Round 5 ADP, making us officially higher than the market on Williams.
Likely the main culprit of this sudden rise is that the reality of Williams starting in Week 1 has officially sunk in. While he is likely to be on a snap count in their first matchup against the Raiders, this is still a favorable defense to be facing especially in Williams’ first game back. His rehab appeared to have gone extremely successfully, as this is a much sooner return than was expected. However, with that expedited return must come tempered expectations, as we’ve seen players make miraculously quick comebacks only to return a step slower, needing to re-acclimate to the speed of the NFL game.
Patience will be required for Williams investors, as he likely will get off to a relatively slow start this season. However, this was still a very good prospect coming into the league, who had a successful rookie season and appeared to be poised for a bell-cow workload in 2022 were it not for his injury. Now in an offense orchestrated by Joe Lombardi & Sean Payton, two offensive minds who heavily employ running backs in the passing game with the use of screens, option routes, and more, Javonte looks to have some pretty substantial upside in fantasy and could easily produce as a low-end RB1. Williams is still a fantastic value in Dynasty and a strong buy at his current market cost.
Other Risers
Mark Andrews (+2) #13 OVR, TE1
Andrews has now crept up into the conversation as one of our top non-QB options in the late first/early second turn. Granted, these are tight end premium rankings, but it’s notable regardless of just how high Andrews has risen in the DFF AccuRankings. As discussed in the first edition of Factory AccuRankings Analysis, Andrews’ projected role in what looks to be arguably the most explosive offense in the league has him comfortably at our TE1 spot in Dynasty. Andrews is still available in the late-second mid-third of most Dynasty startups and remains a top buy amongst DFF rankers.
Luke Musgrave (+7) #163 OVR, TE20
On the other end of the tight-end spectrum lies Luke Musgrave, who made a name for himself at Packers training camp this off-season and is officially on our radar at DFF as a potential future low-end TE1/high-end TE2. Musgrave is part of one of the best TE draft classes in recent memory, which has provided the fantasy landscape with a much-needed injection of youth and depth at the tight-end position. Specifically, Musgrave’s athleticism has reportedly popped in the weeks leading up to the season, and he appears to be comfortably in the driver’s seat of the Packers TE room. He’s a low-cost and intriguing buy, and a great taxi stash for this season.
WEEKLY SINKER
Jonathan Taylor (-6), #30 OVR, RB5
This feels like a fairly tame reaction to the world seemingly crumbling around Jonathan Taylor, but it is still quite easily the most notable drop in the DFF AccuRankings. Taylor ended up receiving the brunt of the 2023 RB exodus, with fellow stars like Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs all set to play in Week 1.
This all started with an abrupt trade request in late July. Seemingly out of nowhere, Taylor and the Colts entered a standoff, with the Colts making it clear that they would refuse to grant his trade request. A few weeks later after some continued back-and-forth, Taylor has now found himself not only still on the Colts, but also on the PUP list, meaning he’ll miss at least the first four games of the season. Regardless of whether you think this is due to real injury or the Colts refusing to give Taylor the contract extension he’s seeking, the fact of the matter is that Taylor is at real risk of missing significant time this season, if not missing the whole year.
This has now brought Taylor to an extremely palatable RB5 valuation in our rankings, and he’s even cheaper in most leagues where owners are freaking out and attempting to jump ship. I would still advise caution when inquiring about Taylor, as, despite the discounted price, the risk baked into that price is very real. However, Taylor is still one of the best at his position in the whole league and is a potential game-breaking fantasy asset any time he’s on the field. Despite the slight dip in AccuRank, which is something you’ll see everywhere with Taylor, I think he’s an excellent value and is someone I’d be seeking to acquire on most of my rosters.
Other Sinkers
De’Von Achane (-7), #103 OVR, RB26
On the other end of the Jonathan Taylor debacle lies a quaint little rookie running back dropped in arguably the best RB landing spot the league has to offer. De’Von Achane truly could not have asked for a better team to be on, but the rumors linking Taylor to Miami are much louder than they are quaint. If I had to say, I would point to this as the main thing dropping Achane in the DFF AccuRankings. He’s never been high on my priority buy list, and I can’t say that’s changed at all post-Taylor rumors given Achane’s current market value.
Greg Dulcich (-6), #120 OVR, TE14
I’m very proud to be far and away the leading ranker on Greg Dulcich by well over 30 spots. People might be concerned about Adam Trautman running with the first team in this past preseason, but Dulcich investors have always been betting on the talent over the situation, and nothing has happened that makes me feel any different about Dulcich’s capability as a player. His peripherals from last year are mind-bogglingly impressive, as he was one of the most efficient and productive rookie tight-ends (granted in a limited sample size), and he appears extremely smooth as a receiver on tape. Dulcich is a prime breakout candidate on a thin Broncos pass-catching corps and an excellent buy at his current cost.
INJURY: THE GREAT EQUALIZER
Regression to the mean is a highly cited, albeit fairly vague and abstract concept. However, the dichotomy of the weekly riser and sinker of this final preseason rankings update has revealed what I believe is an intriguing phenomenon.
On one hand, we have Jonathan Taylor, universally agreed to be an elite running back and one of the best at his position in the whole league. Taylor has an RB1 season in his pedigree, finished as the RB6 as a rookie, and has rarely struggled with injury when looking at his career from a macroscopic perspective. After spending over two and a half years at the top of the running back landscape, Taylor has fallen out of the top-5 RBs for the first time since I was literally in high school. Why, you might ask?
One injury. One singular four-week injury.
Now, compare this to Javonte Williams. A very solid prospect coming out, who produced respectably in his rookie year, albeit nothing otherworldly. Regardless, there were enough flashes to vault Javonte into that same top-5, a spot he retained for just barely under a year before…
A freak injury derailed his sophomore campaign and caused the biggest market overcorrection in the entire Dynasty landscape in 2022. Javonte dropped closer to the 18-22 range of running backs than the top 10 he had previously been featured in. However, roughly 11 months removed from Javonte’s ACL tear, he’s poised to start in week 1 (on a pitch count as I mentioned earlier). Now, Javonte has slung himself back into the conversation as an RB1 in Dynasty… without even really doing anything. Javonte and JT have gone from nearly 20 RB spots apart to just 7, and neither has played a single game in 2023.
I admit that this is still a bit of a half-baked idea and something I hope to expand on in the future. Market overcorrection has always been apparent in the dynasty world, but I do think there is a potential relationship with injury serving as the catalyst for regression toward mean market value.
Thanks for reading! I hope you were able to learn something, or at the very least found this piece entertaining. You can find me @bwinknfl on Twitter/X and Tik Tok, where you can see my day-to-day content as well as short videos. Subscribe to the DFF YouTube channel and check out some other recent articles to dominate your leagues! #DFFArmy
