An important aspect of Dynasty is being able to identify players with the most likely path to accruing value. Asset value alone doesn’t win you championships, but it gets you into a position where you can acquire players that bring with them the necessary production to compete for a title.
There are two primary tools I use to determine player value. The first is Keep Trade Cut which crowdsources Dynasty managers’ player evaluation data by asking them to keep, trade, or cut three closely ranked players. The second is Bulletproof ADP which utilizes actual Dynasty startup draft position data from Sleeper.
There are multiple ways to identify players who can accrue value. This can be accomplished by targeting undervalued players based on underlying metrics. For example, Drake London had the fifth-highest target share in the NFL. We know target share is highly correlated to next year’s fantasy success, as outlined in Chris Miles’s article here. Diontae Johnson set the record for receptions in a season without a touchdown after getting 15 in the prior two years. We know touchdowns aren’t sticky year to year, and Diontae should have positive regression for touchdowns next year.
Value appreciation can also be achieved by targeting players who have legitimate health concerns. There is an element of risk vs. reward that needs to be evaluated with these types of players. That brings us to our first player:
Michael Thomas
We don’t know what Michael Thomas is at this point but at the cost of WR72, I am definitely interested in acquiring shares. He still has the name brand that produced four top 10 finishes from 2016 to 2019, peaking with a #1 overall fantasy finish and an NFL record 149 receptions. His path to value appreciation is simple. All he has to do is show he can stay healthy, and his value will skyrocket.
Whenever he has played, he has performed. He played three games last year, averaging 17 fantasy points per game. Granted, this is a tiny sample, but that was the ninth most fantasy points per game for a wide receiver on the season.
He just turned 30 years old, and his body hasn’t been pummeled in the last three years. He is younger than Davante Adams and just a few months older than Stefon Diggs and Cooper Kupp, and that is the kind of ceiling he has.
So, what about the health? Well, that is the million-dollar question. At least Thomas himself is exuding confidence in that aspect.
If he proves himself early in the season, he will be an easy sell to any contending team.
Brock Purdy
Purdy is an interesting risk vs. reward play right now. He is being drafted at the 9.10 behind Quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Jordan Love, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, and Will Levis.
Purdy started eight games (including two playoff games). In those eight games, Purdy averaged 19.1 Fantasy Points Per Game. The only QBs to average more than that last year were:
Each of these players is a first-round dynasty asset.
So what is holding Purdy back, and what is his path to value appreciation?
- He is not the crystal-clear starter in San Francisco.
Reports from beat writers and even players themselves are indicating he has the inside track to be the starter.
2. Is he healthy?
I stay in my lane and don’t play doctor, so I rely on experts in the medical field. The reports again here are optimistic for Purdy.
3. Draft capital
Sure, seventh-round QBs rarely make it in the NFL. But it is also rare for them to go on a stretch like Purdy had last year. Kyle Shanahan and his dad have a long history of not putting too much stock in draft capital. If a player can play, they will play him. The last six leading rushers for the 49ers (before last year) were all undrafted or sixth-rounders.
The positive about being a seventh-round pick is the 49ers have a QB that led them to eight straight wins, only making about $1 million per year. Trey Lance makes about $6 million per year for comparison. That allows them to keep the incredible skill position group of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk behind him.
Is Purdy ultra-talented? No, but he showed he can run the 49er offense at a high level on a super cheap contract. If he repeats what he did last year, he will be a top three-round Superflex pick next year.
Kyler Murray
This next one should be a slam dunk. If you are in a rebuild, Kyler Murray is the perfect player to target. The only fathomable reason his value could be this depressed right now is due to his tenuous status for the coming season recovering from an ACL tear.
He was a top-five Dynasty startup pick a year ago and put up 18.9 fantasy points per game, good for the QB7 overall in that metric on the season. In the two years before last year, he finished as the QB4 and QB3, respectively. Murray is an ultra-talented former number-one overall pick and is still only 25 years old.
Of course, there is fair reason to believe the Cardinals are positioning themselves to tank for Caleb Williams. They traded with Houston to acquire their 2024 first-round pick. They don’t seem in a hurry to rush back Murray. They released Deandre Hopkins. They are rumored to be considering starting Clayton Tune at QB.
Regardless of what the Cardinals decide, Murray will have substantial trade value if he hits the market. It would, in all likelihood, cost any team at least one first-round pick for the rights to Murray. The Cardinals could also choose to trade the top overall pick if they get it and build around Murray. Either way, Murray’s fantasy value shouldn’t change much for the worse and likely improves.
Sources: Keep Trade Cut and Bulletproof
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. Please consider our DFF annual membership. See all the benefits of the yearly membership here. It truly is the best value in the dynasty industry. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy.
