Expectations for Baltimore Offense

Welcome back, Dynasty family! Today, I’ll be discussing expectations for the Baltimore Ravens offense in 2023 with Todd Monken as the Offensive Coordinator. Monken replaced Greg Roman this offseason after Roman decided to pursue other coaching opportunities. Roman had one year left on his contract, but the Baltimore fanbase was growing impatient with the lack of results on the offensive end. So before we look at Monken’s resume and discuss future projections, I want to dig into Greg Roman’s offensive numbers at Baltimore. 

Greg Roman Era

Greg Roman was promoted to Offensive Coordinator after a couple of seasons as the tight ends coach for the Ravens. They reached the playoffs three of four seasons with Roman as OC but only have one playoff win to show for this, beating the Titans 20-13 in the 2020 Wild Card game. Arguably the best season for Roman and the Ravens was 2019. They finished with a 14-2 regular season record; Harbaugh was voted Coach of the Year, Roman was Assistant Coach of the Year, and Lamar was MVP. Unfortunately, the accolades weren’t enough, as the Ravens fell to the Titans 12-28 in the Divisional Round. The city of Baltimore has high expectations for their Ravens, and they want more than simply earning a playoff spot. 

Below are some numbers reflecting where the Ravens’ offense ranked amongst the rest of the NFL during Greg Roman’s tenure:

As you can see, Roman played the cards he was dealt and utilized the rushing attack successfully during his four seasons in Baltimore. While they were a top-3 rushing team all four years, they only managed to finish in the top half of the NFL in pass yards per game once (2021). The one thing that stood out was the yearly decrease in points per game. Baltimore went from the best offense in the NFL in 2019 to a below-average offense in 2021 and 2022. I assumed these stats were skewed since Lamar only played 12 games in both seasons. However, when I looked at the numbers, I saw that just 2022 was skewed. For weeks 13-18, the Ravens only put up 12.5 PPG without Lamar (I’m including Week 13 because Lamar only played 14% of the snaps) but scored 25 PPG with Lamar. For 2021 however, the Lamar-less Ravens scored 20.2 PPG, which was closely in line with the 22.8 PPG they scored on the season overall.  

Todd Monken

Todd Monken spent the past three seasons as the Georgia Bulldogs Offensive Coordinator, helping the Bulldogs secure back-to-back national championships. Monken has a 34-year coaching resume which includes prior NFL experience. He was the WR coach for the Jaguars from 2007-10, the Bucs OC from 2016-18, and the Browns OC in 2019. 

Monken’s Bulldogs were a top-10 scoring offense in the country in 2021 and 2022, finishing with 38.6 PPG and 41.1 PPG. In addition, they led the nation in 10+ yard plays (272) and 20+ yard plays (98) in 2022. Georgia was also 4th in yards per play in 2021 and 2022 (6.98, 7.17). Georgia capped off their 2022 season by dominating TCU in the National Championship game with a final score of 65-7. This 58-point win was the largest margin of victory in bowl game history. Needless to say, Monken’s time at Georgia was a major success. 

Offensive Schemes

Georgia’s most common package under Todd Monken was 12 personnel, which includes one RB, two TEs, and two WRs. Georgia used that set 59% of the time, and only two FBS teams used it more. When asked about this, Monken said it was because two of his best players were TEs (Bowers, Washington). Baltimore has excellent TEs, too (Andrews, Likely), and an upgraded WR room (Flowers, Odell, Bateman), so they should have plenty of options regarding offensive packages. Injuries could change the season’s outlook, but this is the best surrounding cast Lamar has ever had. 

From watching Todd Monken’s press conference following the Ravens’ hiring decision, I found Monken to be very open-minded and adaptable, emphasizing the importance of spreading it out and using the whole field. Monken loved to create mismatches with his tight ends at Georgia and should have the roster and depth at the position to do the same in Baltimore. He favors no-huddle, up-tempo football and says he plans to bring that pace of play to Baltimore. 

Greg Roman’s offense was typically tight formations, and power runs with Lamar. Todd Monken plans to use spread-out formations and occasionally empty sets. This should be beneficial for Lamar’s elusive rushing style. The open field gives him more space to be creative and bust out big plays. Several times in the press conference, Monken talked about using all 53.3 yards of width (sideline to sideline) and letting his athletic players make plays. 

Monken has never had the opportunity to work with a QB of Lamar’s caliber. He’s coached mainly college guys, but at the NFL level, he’s only worked with Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. At Georgia, Stetson Bennett rushed for 10 TDs in 2022, and he’s not even considered a dual-threat QB. If Monken can help Bennet put up those rushing numbers, I can only imagine Lamar’s rushing ceiling in 2023 and beyond. 

Monken’s NFL Offenses

Monken ran a pass-heavy scheme in Tampa Bay. He primarily had Winston and Fitzpatrick under center for those three seasons. In 2018, the Bucs led the NFL in passing offense (320.3 YPG) and total offense (415.5 YPG) and were 4th in pass attempts (625). They also led the NFL with 26 team INTs. 

His 2019 Cleveland offense was more run-heavy. RB Nick Chubb finished second in the NFL rush yards (1,494). QB Baker Mayfield threw for the most pass yards in his career with 3,827, but also the most INTs with 21. 

The common denominator here was that all of Monken’s NFL offenses were error-prone. Much of this had to do with the personnel, though. And as fantasy owners, we are less concerned with turnover rate than scoring opportunities. Sure, we lose points on fumbles and interceptions, but the faster the pace of play, the more chances we have for fantasy points. Monken’s up-tempo style should increase the number of plays and scoring opportunities for Baltimore in 2023. 

Lamar Jackson

Lamar was the QB1 overall in 2019. This is still his ceiling if he can remain healthy, especially considering the surrounding cast he has now. He finished as a high-end QB2 overall the past two seasons, but this was due to injury. Here were Lamar’s fantasy numbers from a PPG perspective for the past four seasons, based on a 4-point pass TD league.

Lamar’s PPG has decreased yearly but did level out in 2022. I think the 19.5 PPG mark is Lamar’s floor going forward. This past season, J.K. Dobbins was hurt for most of the year, as was Rashod Bateman. Lamar’s top two receiving options outside of Mark Andrews were Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson. And Jackson was still a QB1 from a PPG perspective with this offense. The WR corps has received a significant upgrade, and Lamar’s numbers should follow suit. Pass TDs and rush TDs per game have been trending down for Lamar, but rushing YPG has stayed steady at around 64-67 YPG. We should see Lamar’s TDs trend back upward as the pace of play increases. With Lamar under center, the Ravens were dead last in pace of play in 2019 and 2020, 17th in 2021, and 24th in 2022. The Ravens will never be a top-5 team in pace of play as their identity is still run-heavy, but the up-tempo style Monken wants to bring to Baltimore should move them up the ranks here.

Ravens’ Offense

The Baltimore Ravens may have a top-10 offense in 2023, but the biggest question mark is health, namely, Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr.

Rashod Bateman was a first-round selection in 2021. Many expected Bateman to break out in Year 2, but his season was cut short due to a Lisfranc injury. This injury typically takes a while for players to recover from (see Najee Harris and Travis Etienne). But Rashod appears to be healing well and is back on the field and participating in team drills.

Odell had three WR1 seasons from 2014-2016. Unfortunately, he missed all of the 2022 season after undergoing surgery for an ACL injury, so it’s unclear what version of Odell we will have going into 2023. That said, he did prove to be an effective receiver for the Rams in 2021, specifically from the slot. 

As for the rest of Lamar’s weapons, Zay Flowers is another 1st round selection and an incoming rookie. Flowers is a great route runner, has excellent hands, and is technically sound. Mark Andrews needs no explanation, and Isaiah Likely is a young, athletic TE. Charlie Kolar was a highly productive prospect from the 2022 class, and many are still high on him. He just hasn’t had a chance to show his ability, as he missed nearly all of his rookie season due to a sports hernia. 

J.K. Dobbins is still young and highly effective. He finished fourth in true yards per carry in 2022 with 5.2 YPC, 2nd in juke rate (evaded tackles per touch) at 43.4%, and third in breakaway run rate (percentage of runs of 15+ yards) at 10.9%. He just needs to remain healthy. Dobbins has yet to hit 1,000 yards in a season due to his injury history. 

Dobbins may see his role expand as a pass catcher this upcoming season. Monken’s 2019 Browns offense threw many screen passes and may try to do the same in Baltimore. Dobbins was a solid pass-catcher at OSU but hasn’t had the opportunity at the NFL level yet. 

Summary 

I expect this Ravens offense to be a top-10 team from a YPG and a PPG perspective. Todd Monken has tons of experience, and while he didn’t have massive success in his prior NFL stints, he helped create one of the most dominant college offenses we’ve ever seen during his time at Georgia. I expect the passing offense to ramp up in Baltimore, but their identity should remain run-first. I know Lamar said he wants to throw for 6,000 yards in 2023. Please don’t think this is in the realm of possibility. Lamar has never thrown for 3,200 yards in a season. We can reasonably expect a new career high for single-season pass yards, but I’m assuming that will still be somewhere under the 4k mark. 

Andrews remains a staple to your Dynasty roster and a top-3 TE in Dynasty overall. Isaiah Likely can be bought at a discount this offseason and is a “buy” for me. Expect Likely to see the field much more in 2023 under Monken. I’m less excited about rostering/starting any of the Baltimore WRs, just because there won’t be enough volume to feed all three players. I prefer Flowers over Bateman and Odell in the Dynasty since he is the youngest, has first-round draft capital, and has no prior injuries. Finally, I value Lamar as a top-5 QB in Dynasty, in the same tier as Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. He secured a 5-year $260 million contract this offseason, has seen an upgrade in offensive weapons, has incredible rushing upside, and gets to work under Todd Monken. What’s not to like about that?

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @DynastySavant. Until next time, keep grinding out there, Dynasty family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding