GAME PREVIEW
Week 6 kicks off with yet another low-level Thursday Night Football matchup between two bottom-feeding teams as the Washington Commanders (1-4) travel to Soldier Field to face off against the Chicago Bears (2-3). Betting lines have this TNF contest listed as the lowest projected scoring total of the Week 6 slate, with an over/under of 38.0 points. The traveling team is a surprise 1.0-point favorite over the hometown Bears.
The Commanders are averaging 18.0 points per game on offense (26th) while conceding 25.6 points per game on defense (25th). The team ranks top-10 in passing yards, averaging 252.6 (10th) per contest. The Commanders have not been able to get their run game going this season, totaling a 28th-ranked 89.0 rushing yards on average. The offense has been able to put up yards in bunches on opposing defenses but has not translated that production into scoring points or winning games. Their defensive averages trump the Bears, albeit in mediocre numbers. The Commanders allow 365.6 scrimmage yards per game (20th), with 235.0 passing yards (19th) and 110.0 rushing yards (14th).
The Bears rank dead last in total yards in 2022, averaging 293.2 scrimmage yards on offense per game. However, the team ranks in the top five in rushing production with a monstrous 157.4 rushing yards on average. They are scoring a sluggish 17.2 points per game with a league-low 17.6 pass attempts. Their defensive identity has dissipated into a matchup offenses look towards rather than fear to face. The team concedes 378.8 scrimmage yards per game (22nd), allowing 170.0 rushing yards (32nd) and 197.2 passing yards (9th) to opposing offenses. Their strong defensive passing numbers only appear intimidating until you realize teams have not had to pass against the Bears due to their swiss-cheese rush defense. Offenses are scoring 21.2 points per game (15th) against the Bears this season, running amok on the defense en route to easy victories.
I anticipate a low-scoring matchup between two famished offenses in a run-focused game with the Commanders edging the Bears for the win.
Game Prediction
Moneyline: Commanders
Scoring Prediction: 20-13
Under 38.0 Total Points
Now that we have introduced the matchup let’s dive into some high-upside player props for this NFC clash.
CARSON WENTZ UNDER 237.5 PASSING YARDS
Betting Odds: -115
Carson Wentz threw for 650 yards and seven touchdowns through the first two weeks of the 2022 season. Since then he has totaled 740 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions over his last three stars. Wentz is averaging 278.0 passing yards per game in 2022 but faces a sneaky-good secondary in Week 6. The Bears’ defense concedes -24.7% of the expected production to passers this season. A 24.7% decrease in Wentz’s average passing output would equate to 210.8 yards. The Commanders will likely find success on the ground against the Bears, minimizing their need to rely on Wentz as a passer.
DAVID MONTGOMERY OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS
Betting Odds: +115
The Bears’ passing offense is operating at an anemic rate with league-low yardage and attempt totals across the board. However, Justin Fields has attempted a season-high streak of 43 combined pass attempts in his previous two contests, allocating a cumulative eight targets to the running back position for an 18.60% target share. David Montgomery led the team in receiving in Week 5, catching all four of his targets for 62 yards. Fields’ high propensity for checkdown passes should help Montgomery surpass his over/under threshold despite a low-scoring affair.
TERRY MCLAURIN UNDER 54.5 REC YARDS
Betting Odds: +100
Terry McLaurin is averaging a mere 65.2 receiving yards per game this season and will draw the shadow matchup of Jaylon Johnson against the Bears in Week 6. Johnson is the top-rated cover corner in terms of stemming the fantasy production of opposing wideouts, allowing just one target on a 61.5% snap share this season. The Bears’ defense ranks 31st in production allowed over average, conceding a stifling -19.0% of the expected receiving output to their opposing matchups. A terrible game script combined with a dreadful defensive assignment sets McLaurin up for a tough day at the office. The veteran wideout is more than capable of hitting his over on one big play, hence the plus odds but the overall outlook for the passing offense is grim in this one.
BRIAN ROBINSON ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER
Betting Odds: +225
Brian Robinson made his debut for the Commanders in Week 5, six weeks after being shot in a tragic car-jacking incident that left the rookie sidelined for the first quarter of the NFL season. Robinson was immediately thrust into a meaningful role as the team’s leading rusher ahead of Antonio Gibson. The rookie running back garnered a 75.0% rushing share (9 RSH) in his debut opposed to Gibson’s 25.0% (3 RSH). The former Alabama product expects to increase that opportunity share throughout the season, opening up more scoring opportunities. The Commanders slated Robinson to be the early-down and goal line bruiser before the season commenced and will have several chances to maintain that role should the team find themselves inside the five-yard line against the Bears.
SIGNOFF
Please remember to always bet responsibly. Know your limit and play within it.
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
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