On Thursday, April 28th, at approximately 10:00 PM ET, A.J. Brown was traded from the Tennessee Titans to the Philadelphia Eagles for the 18th overall pick and a third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. After this blockbuster deal, we need to recalibrate our expectations for every offensive player in Philadelphia and Tennessee. Who benefits the most, and whose stock is moving in the wrong direction?
The Winners
Jalen Hurts is, by far, the biggest winner of this trade. In his second full season as the Eagles’ starter, he’ll have one of the league’s most dangerous supporting casts at his disposal. The front office hasn’t committed to Hurts long term, but their willingness to build around him is a good sign for his future, as well. He will have every opportunity to establish himself as a franchise QB in 2022, and he should score plenty of fantasy points along the way. A top-five finish is well within his range of outcomes.
Treylon Burks & Robert Woods
Moments after A.J. Brown was traded, the Tennessee Titans selected Treylon Burks to take his place at the top of the depth chart. Burks is a big, athletic WR who will be expected to contribute right away. If he can acclimate to the NFL quickly, he will have the opportunity to lead all rookie WRs in targets and fantasy points.
The other winner in Tennessee is Robert Woods, the only other WR of consequence on the roster. Woods is thirty years old, joining a run-heavy offense fresh off an ACL tear, so we still need to temper our expectations. Still, this is good news if you roster Woods in dynasty. You might even have a nice sell window here if someone in your league believes that Woods can return to form and capture a large percentage of Tennessee’s vacated targets.
Finally, we have our smallest winner: Miles Sanders. The Eagles did not add any RB competition through the draft, so it’s safe to assume they’ll ride with Sanders as their early-down back and primary red-zone option once again. The addition of A.J. Brown gives Sanders a nice boost, as his presence should lead to more drives, more red-zone visits, and more positive game scripts.
The Losers
Within 24 hours, the Titans traded their superstar WR and moved up to draft an exciting young QB. Rough scene for Ryan Tannehill. Even with the arrival of Treylon Burks, he’s easily the biggest loser of this trade. I’m not necessarily worried about Tannehill’s job security in 2022, but you should tread lightly in dynasty formats. If the Titans struggle in this stacked AFC conference, the rug pull could come sooner than expected.
DeVonta Smith & Dallas Goedert
DeVonta Smith is another clear loser in this trade, especially if you thought Quez Watkins would be his only competition in the WR room this season. A.J. Brown will command a large target share, so the ceiling projection for Smith has to come down. And if the Eagles maintain their incredibly low passing volume with their (perceived to be) below-average starting QB, can Smith truly breakout? These are reasonable concerns, but I wouldn’t be rushing to unload Smith in dynasty for a couple of reasons. First, pass volume is rarely predictable year-to-year. We just saw a 38% increase in pass attempts from the Baltimore Ravens in 2021 due to a confluence of unforeseen factors. Then there’s the QB issue. Through nineteen career starts, Jalen Hurts doesn’t look like an elite, franchise QB. But he’s also not bad to the point of actively sabotaging his pass-catchers in the vein of a Sam Darnold or Taylor Heinecke. Plus, if he doesn’t show signs of improvement this year, the Eagles have multiple 2023 first-rounders to address the position. Either way, we should not be worried about DeVonta Smith’s QB situation long-term.
With more target competition in the mix, we have to adjust our expectations for Dallas Goedert, as well. Goedert has looked all offseason like the next breakout tight end, but with a true target magnet joining this offense, it’s difficult to imagine an Andrews-Esque ascension, at least in 2022. However, due to his age, contract, and athleticism, Goedert should still be ranked just behind the elite tier of tight ends in Dynasty.
A.J. Brown
Surprisingly, A.J. Brown finds himself in the “losers” column after receiving a $100M extension. But that’s what happens when you step into an offense with more target competition, fewer overall pass attempts, and a less accurate QB. I’m not significantly downgrading Brown in dynasty, though. As I’ve already explained, the situation in Philadelphia is fluid. The pass attempts could increase as we saw in Baltimore last season, or Jalen Hurts could improve or find himself replaced in 2023. We don’t know exactly what the future holds in Philadelphia, but we do know one thing: Brown is one of the best target earners in the NFL. Even with the change of scenery, I believe Brown will post his third straight season with a top-ten target share.
Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.
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