Dynasty fantasy football has often been compared to the stock market. While there are some flaws in this analogy, many of the general principles are the same. We want to “buy low” and “sell high.” We want to diversify our portfolio across multiple leagues to mitigate risk. We want a healthy mixture of upside and safety in our investments. And, we want to look for arbitrage opportunities.
In financial terms, arbitrage is a complicated concept that involves the simultaneous buying and selling of the same asset. In fantasy football, however, arbitrage has a simpler definition: get this guy instead of that guy. Typically, a fantasy football arbitrage involves two players with similar situations or ranges of outcome that are available at wildly different price points. For example, in 2021 best ball drafts, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson went off the board around pick 55* while Jalen Hurts was available over 50 slots later, typically going around pick 109. All three QBs were prized for their rushing ability, and all three finished within one PPG. This means that Hurts was the better investment when considering the relative cost of each player.
In this piece, I’ll take a look at some dynasty assets that I’m avoiding at cost**. I’ll explain my reasoning and offer an “arbitrage” for each player. Remember, that means a player in a similar vein is available at a discounted price.
*ADP courtesy of Underdog Fantasy
**All positional ranks come from KeepTradeCut
Damien Harris – RB26 vs. Devin Singletary – RB31
Damien Harris scored 15 TDs in 15 games in 2021. He ranked fifth in total TDs despite ranking 17th in carries and 33rd in weighted opportunities. In other words, he vastly overperformed in the TD column, so much so that 46.6% of his fantasy points came from TDs. The rest of his profile is hard to look at. He’s a non-factor in the passing game, ranking 60th or worse in targets, receptions, and receiving yards among RBs. And he can’t be considered a bellcow in the mold of Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry because his share of RB opportunities ranked outside the top 30.
So, to recap, Damien Harris is a player who doesn’t command a high percentage of his team’s rush attempts or RB targets. He was only the RB20 in a season with 15 TDs, which will likely be his career-high. He’s also 25 years old, which is past the age apex for RBs, and he’s on the last year of his contract with a talented backup in Rhamondre Stevenson pushing him for touches. When you add all this together, his RB26 price tag makes no sense whatsoever.
Enter Devin Singletary, another third-rounder from the 2018 draft class who is currently the RB31 on KTC. Singletary is slightly younger than Harris and a whole lot more involved in the passing game. He had a higher opportunity share in 2021 than Harris despite Buffalo rotating through Zack Moss and Matt Breida earlier in the season. After a strong playoff run, I believe Singletary will be locked in as Buffalo’s starter for 2022 with a higher floor and ceiling than Damien Harris and the same long-term questions.
Jerry Jeudy – WR25 vs. Courtland Sutton – WR39
When you draft Jerry Jeudy as the WR25, you’re paying for the brand name, the draft capital, and the possibility of future production. Meanwhile, the actual metrics tell a different story. Jeudy’s target share and air yards share declined in year two, barely outpacing Tim Patrick. If you want to attribute this regression to the ankle injury that Jeudy dealt with throughout the season, that’s fine. However, Jeudy’s price tag already bakes in this assumption along with another massive, highly speculative factor: a QB upgrade.
Sure, a QB upgrade would likely lead to better production from Jeudy. However, you need that upgrade just to break even on your investment at this point. Think about it this way: if we could guarantee that Jeudy’s QB for the next five seasons would be Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater, how far would he fall in the rankings? If Aaron Rodgers was traded to Denver tomorrow, how much higher would Jeudy realistically climb? At WR25, the downside outweighs the upside.
If you want to assume that Denver wins the Rodgers sweepstakes, why not just grab Courtland Sutton at WR39 instead? Sure, he’s a couple of years older than Jeudy, but he still has several productive seasons left. He already has a 1,100 yard, top-20 finish on his resume and a long-term contract with the team. Jeudy may command a larger target share when both players are healthy, but Sutton can make up for that discrepancy with deeper targets and a higher share of the team’s air yards.
Gabriel Davis – WR34 vs. Laviska Shenault – WR52
We all know that Gabriel Davis looked unbelievable in the Divisional Round of the 2021 playoffs, racking up 201 yards and four TDs on eight receptions. That performance, which was watched by millions, has sent Davis skyrocketing up the dynasty rankings. Considering how little Davis has actually done outside of that game, a lot of assumptions are required to justify his WR34 price tag.
Davis saw just 10.9% of Buffalo’s targets in 2021, which was 90th among WRs and identical to his rookie-year target share. The lack of growth is alarming. Davis was fairly efficient on the field, ranking 11th in yards per reception and 22nd in fantasy points per target. However, we can’t just overlook his inability to command volume. This exact line of thinking led people to overvalue Mecole Hardman after his rookie season when he ranked 1st in the NFL in yards per reception and fantasy points per target. Many wrongfully assumed that his role would grow significantly.
With Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley potentially leaving the team, the WR2 role appears to be wide open in Buffalo. In order to select Davis as the WR34, you must assume that Davis slides into this role full-time without any outside competition being added. But when you consider the talent available in free agency and the draft along with the team’s lack of other glaring needs, this outcome seems unlikely.
If you want to invest in a third-year WR with mediocre production, why not Laviska Shenault? At WR52, he’s much cheaper than Davis despite a significantly larger 18.1% target share in 2021. Granted, Shenault’s offensive situation isn’t as sexy, but there is massive room for improvement with the arrival of Doug Pederson, the continued development of Trevor Lawrence, and the possibility of a franchise left tackle with the first pick in the draft. I would much rather bet on Shenault maintaining his volume in an improved Jacksonville offense than Davis doubling his volume in an already-great offense, especially when the price is factored in.
Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.
Did you enjoy this article and want more Dynasty, Devy, IDP, and Redraft content? Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership.
