Earlier this week, Tashan Reed of The Athletic reported that Las Vegas Raiders’ running back Jalen Richard sustained a foot injury after returning from the COVID-19 list and will be out indefinitely. The report had zero mention of what injury Richard suffered but to be immediately labeled as “out indefinitely” I have to assume it was fairly severe. Plus, foot injuries for skill position players are never a good thing as we have seen in the recent Carson Wentz saga and with Joe Mixon in season’s past.
While we don’t know the details of the injury, I feel like this injury has gone under the radar and might have bigger fantasy football implications than we think.
With Jalen Richard out indefinitely and Theo Riddick recently retiring from the NFL, the Raiders only have four running backs in training camp: Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, Bo Scarbrough, B.J. Emmons, and rookie Trey Ragas.
While I have heard good things about Ragas and liked his film in college, he is an undrafted rookie who will likely be fighting for a roster spot. Scarbrough, although serviceable in limited action in 2019, is not the pass-catching asset like Jalen Richard was. Who this really affects is former Arizona Cardinals running back Kenyan Drake who the Raiders just signed to a two-year 14.5 million dollar deal with 11 million guaranteed.
Kenyan Drake The Pass Catcher
While Drake was signed to be the backup running back to Josh Jacobs after Devontae Booker was signed by the Giants, the absence of Jalen Richard fully opens up the role for the primary pass-catching running back for the Raiders. With Booker and Richard out of the equation, that’s 44 targets from last season that are up for grabs.
And I know, targets don’t carry over year to year, targets are earned not given but it bears mentioning that before last season in which the Cardinals decided Kenyan Drake was a goal-line running back for whatever reason, he had 68 targets in 2019 and 73 targets in 2018.
Also, while Jacobs improved from 20 receptions as a rookie to 33 in his second season, receiving has never been Jacobs’ strong suit and Drake has graded out as the better pass-blocking running back of the two.
Kenyan Drake the Rusher
I’m not out on Jacobs, but I believe it’s worth pointing out that Jacobs’ efficiency is worse with increased volume. Since Jacobs entered the NFL, in games when Jacobs had 20 or more rushes per game, he averaged 4.1 yards per attempt. Now compare that to games in which he had under 20 carries where he averaged 4.6 yards per attempt.
Jacobs also had over 200 yards less in yards after contact, almost 10 fewer forced missed tackles, and two fewer 100-yard games from his rookie season to his second year in two fewer games.
It’s within the realm of possibilities that the Raiders believe that Josh Jacobs is better without a massive workload and the numbers back it up. The Raiders’ decision to make their backup running back the 14th highest-paid running back in the NFL also seems to back up this notion.
Kenyan Drake the Touchdown Scorer
While I’m least confident in this version of Kenyan Drake as Josh Jacobs has scored 7 and 12 touchdowns on the ground the last two seasons, Drake has also proven that he can get the job done within the five-yard line.
Last season, Josh Jacobs scored five touchdowns on 18 attempts within the five-yard line, a 28% touchdown efficiency rating. Whereas, Drake scored 9 touchdowns on 21 attempts within the five-yard line, a 43% touchdown efficiency rating.
So there is potential Drake takes more touchdowns in the red zone than Jacobs owners would like.
Conclusion
With the injury to Jalen Richard, Kenyan Drake will be this team’s 3rd down running back, 2-minute drill running back, while likely also taking a few series from Josh Jacobs throughout the game.
Plus, Josh Jacobs hasn’t exactly been the epitome of health at the running back position as he is constantly banged up and has already missed four games through two full seasons in the NFL. So on top of having a playable asset, Drake serves as a high-end hand-cuff.
No, Drake will by no means become the starting running back for this team but he is going to be more involved in this offense than Josh Jacobs owners will like with the potential to even take some of his high-value touches.
This isn’t me saying to avoid Jacobs as he is still a solid RB2 this season but it is me saying that you are likely undervaluing what Drake can bring to this offense as a pass catcher and compliment to Josh Jacobs.
Right now, Josh Jacobs is my 19th ranked running back in 0.5 PPR while Kenyan Drake is my RB 30. Right now, ADP has Jacobs as RB17 and 30th overall while Drake is RB38 and 96th overall.
Just something to think about as your draft is right around the corner.
-Zach Pavlichek, PT, DPT
As always, give me a follow on Twitter @zachpav42 and hit me up with any injury concerns or fantasy questions. My replies are always open.
