It happens every year. Players get hyped during the offseason, and lofty expectations are set for them that coming season. Inevitably, several players will fail to meet those expectations and their value will fall, and leave a sour taste in your mouth. However, as a savvy fantasy player, you can use this to your advantage to identify undervalued players. Not every player who has failed to meet expectations will rebound, but if you put some thought into it, you can identify the ones that have a strong case for a bounce back.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)
The Twittersphere went into a frenzy on April 23, 2020, when the Kansas City Chiefs used their first-round pick on the LSU standout RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH for short (no pun intended), looked to be the perfect fit for the pass-heavy Chiefs. In his final season at LSU Edwards-Helaire showed his ability to both run and catch, with 1,414 yards on the ground and 453 yards through the air on 55 receptions. CEH was primed for a big role in the explosive and high-scoring Kansas City Offense.
The rookie RB had a strong start to the season, averaging 15.9 PPR points per game in the first six games. This was good for RB11 on the year to that point. However, things changed when the Chiefs decided to sign veteran Le’Veon Bell. Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s role was diminished and after Bell joined the team, CEH’s production took a hit, dropping to 11.5 PPR points per game, good for RB34 from weeks 7 to 16. Edwards-Helaire finished the season as the PPR RB19, a big disappointment for those that drafted him as their rookie RB1 or RB2.
2021 brings new opportunities for the now 2nd-year pro. The Chiefs added no RBs in the offseason, leaving just Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson behind Clyde on the depth chart. In 2020, CEH saw 60% of the offensive snaps. Considering that last year Williams took 25% and Thompson 7% of the offensive snaps, I see Edwards-Helaire’s snap share on the rise, looking more like the week one to six CEH in 2020, where he averaged nearly 16 PPR points per game.
As it stands now, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has an ADP of 23.6 as the RB15 on underdogfantasy.com. This is a screaming value in my opinion. When you can take the clear lead back on debatably the NFL’s best offensive unit as the 15th RB off the board, you run to the podium to make your selection. CEH should be an integral cog in the Chief’s high-scoring offense. He should receive the bulk of the carries and RB receptions, making his upside HUGE. In a somewhat limited role as a rookie, Edwards-Helaire had 1,100 yards and five TDs, and I believe it is easy to project him to do more in 2021. I believe 1,500 totals yards and nearly double digits TDs are a possibility for this Post-Hype Sleeper.
In Best Ball and Redraft, I feel comfortable taking CEH in the early second, a good bit higher than his ADP. In Dynasty, I would gladly offer a future 1st and 2nd for the 2nd year RB and feel good taking him in the RB8-10 range in a start-up draft. As the investors and day traders would say, “Buy the dip!”.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – CLE)
The former dynasty WR1 has seen his value consistently tumble over the past few seasons. Beckham Jr. started his career with three straight 1,300+ yard seasons before a leg fracture that required surgery derailed his fourth season. He then returned the following season in New York, playing 12 games and posting 1,052 yards and six touchdowns. The following season he was traded to the Cleveland Browns, and expectations were high with Baker Mayfield now his QB. 2019 was then a bit of a letdown, as OBJ had a solid season of 1,035 yards and four TDs, but was not nearly as dominant as he was in his early years with the Giants. His value fell again the last offseason, and it again tumbled more after Odell tore his ACL in week seven of 2020. Beckham Jr. is now 28 and will be 29 during the 2021 season. Can he become a viable option in your dynasty lineup once again?
As of today, Odell Beckham Jr. has an ADP of 59.7 (WR28) on underdogfantasy.com, a far cry from where it was years ago. I believe the main concern is his health and his availability for the start of the season. Per playerprofiler.com, ACL tear recovery takes six to nine months to heal, and week one will be nearly ten months from his injury. As of June, OBJ is already looking ready to go!
Based on typical recovery time, and his participation in the video above, I think it is safe to bet he will be taking the field in week one of the 2021 season.
In seasons that Beckham Jr. plays at least 12 games, he goes for over 1k yards. So considering his perceived value right now, if you have a healthy OBJ on your roster, you are going to be very happy. In Redraft and Best Ball he can be a fantastic high upside WR2 or WR3 for your team. In the early 5th round, I’m ecstatic to land OBJ. When looking at Odell through a dynasty lens, I would only be targeting OBJ if I know I am a contender for the title. He is a bit of a risk considering his health, but considering he is still a couple of years away from 30, he should have several good years ahead of him. I would happily trade away an early second for Odell, and look to draft him in a similar range to his Best Ball ADP of 59. His upside is still very high and he has a safe floor if he can stay healthy.
Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR)
To finish the 2019 season, Tyler Higbee went on a tear! His fellow TE Gerald Everett got hurt in Week 11, and Higbee made the most of the opportunity. From week 12 to 16, Higbee was truly dominant, averaging 18.4 PPR points per game during that stretch, scoring only less than TE George Kittle during that time. Seeing how great he was at the end of the season, fantasy analysts and fans couldn’t help but project that success into the 2020 season. Unfortunately, using small sample sizes is a slippery slope. In 2020, Higbee saw a career-high in snap share with 73%, but so did his teammate Everett with 57%. Tyler Higbee had to share the TE duties with his teammate and his production took a hit, falling to 521 yards from 734 the year before. Higbee owners had top-five TE hopes for Higbee in 2020, so they were grossly disappointed with his finish as the TE17. Can Higbee turn things around in 2021?
Right off the bat, I need to address the departure of fellow TE Gerald Everett. Higbee’s counterpart at TE left for Seattle in free agency, leaving the only notable names on the TE depth chart as second TE Bryce Hopkins, and rookie-TE and WR-convert Jacob Harris. History tells us that TEs take time to develop and produce at the NFL level, so it appears Higbee is lined up to be THE MAN at TE for the Rams in 2021.
On underdogfantasy.com, Higbee is the TE8 with an ADP of 97.2, so it appears the fantasy community has already noticed the TE situation in Los Angeles, and his ADP is already in the eighth round. However, for this go-around in 2021, I believe his top five upside is attainable. As mentioned, Everett is gone and the competition behind him is young and unproven.
Another thing that makes Higbee a good target is the arrival of Matthew Stafford. This veteran QB and newcomer to the Rams loves his TEs. In 2020, Stafford’s TE T.J. Hockenson saw the second-most targets on the team with 101, a strong 19% target share. The 101 targets were the fifth-highest for a TE in 2020.
We have seen what Higbee can do when he is asked to be the “Alpha” TE in his offense, and with the arrival of Stafford, top-five TE is a strong possibility. I will not project to recreate the end of the 2019 season, but I 100% project him to improve upon his 2020 season. With a TE8 price tag and top-five upside, Higbee is a strong value in Redraft and Best Ball. In Dynasty I see him as an even greater value. He falls outside of the top 10 TEs, and at the age of 28, he is coming into his prime years as a big-bodied pass catcher. Depending on your format, Higbee could be acquired for a late second or early third and I think that is worth it if you need the help at TE. He is stuck between the disappointment of 2020 and the upside of his situation in 2021. He is a buy-now before he shows what he can do as Stafford’s “safety blanket”.
Thanks for reading my thoughts! It has been a little while since I wrote last, and it feels good to see the “pen hit the paper” again, per se. If you like what you saw here, you can give me a follow on Twitter @RookieWhisper for more fantasy content.
