Since the last four games of the regular season and playoffs, the Cam Akers hype train has started to gain velocity. That train is now going too fast, has exceeded the speed limit, and will soon be charged for speeding. Akers is now being drafted as the 19th pick in Dynasty Startups (RB8) according to Sleeper’s ADP and FantasyPros consensus, ahead of guys like Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Gibson, and D’Andre Swift, among others. I’m not thrashing Cam Akers but this price is definitely a market overreaction.
People are hand-picking which games they liked from Cam Akers and ignoring every other game he played. What is very odd for me is that he wasn’t even that amazing. In the last four regular-season games, he finally cracked the 60% snap share mark. In those four games, he averaged 21.5 carries, 2.5 receptions, 109 yards, while only scoring once in that stretch. These add up to 14.4 points per game, good numbers, but not what you expect from your RB1. He was only a top-12 RB in one game and a top-24 RB in three games.
With Darrell Henderson on Injured Reserve for the postseason, playoff games were a different story. In those two games, he totaled 46 carries, three receptions, 272 total yards, and two touchdowns. That would have been 21.2 points per game.
But why are we suddenly ignoring Darrell Henderson’s existence? He was also drafted in the second round just a year before by the same coaching staff. I know Akers was a better prospect, but they are both liked by the coaches and there was no regime change. What if at the end of the season they were just riding the hot hand? What if they are a two-headed backfield? What if Henderson takes a significant share of the backfield and we get stuck in the middle of a mess? That’s not a risk I’m willing to take in my “Top 10 Dynasty RB”.
So which workload and Akers are we going to see? A bumpy season with ups and downs or the explosive playmaker we saw in the playoffs?
Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford is an undebatable upgrade. The offense should see an improvement and more positive game scripts that would increase or at least maintain the 45% rushing percentage they had in 2020. But, what about the receiving workload?
In an analysis made by Santiago Casanova in Broto, he dives into the source of the targets by position. WRs and TEs get targets by themselves, but RBs are best predicted year to year by their QB and coaching scheme. Rams RBs totaled 66 targets (11% share) in 2020; that’s only a little bit above four targets per game. In 2019, when Gurley was still on the team, RBs had 61 targets (10% share). Not enough! I know the decline in RB targets matches with the decline in Gurley’s production, but couldn’t that mean McVay is afraid to overwork his RB again?
Now let’s look at RB targets in Detroit with Matthew Stafford. In 2020, they had 101 targets (19%), 98 in 2019 (18%), and 130 in 2018 (23%). I would expect the receiving workload of the RBs in this new Rams offense to be somewhere in between, about 14-16%. That would be slightly below league average, and that workload would still be divided between Akers and Henderson.
My last concern is efficiency. I’m aware efficiency regresses to the mean, but we should still point out he was not amazing last season. I challenge you to guess who is Cam Akers, Player A or Player B.
| Player A | Player B | |
| Snap Share | 38.10% | 32.80% |
| Red Zone Touches | 33 | 35 |
| TD Rate | 1.90% | 3.90% |
| FP per opportunity | 0.64 | 0.8 |
| Routes run per game | 9.6 | 9 |
| Yards per route run | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| True yards per carry | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| Yards per touch | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| Breakaway run rate | 3.40% | 4.30% |
| Evaded tackles | 27 | 25 |
| Juke rate | 17.30% | 16.20% |
| Expected points added | -25.5 | 4.4 |
| Yards created per touch | 1.43 | 1.16 |
Cam Akers is Player A. Darrell Henderson is Player B. Was he really that better? Did he really make that much more out of his touches than Henderson? I don’t think so. He was slightly better, but he won’t make Henderson disappear.
I do like Cam Akers, don’t misunderstand me, but he is very expensive for me right now. As stated earlier, he is being drafted as the RB8 in both Sleeper’s ADP and in FantasyPros consensus. I know this is not his ceiling, but I definitely prefer a lower price for another second-year RB like Antonio Gibson or Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I would strongly consider selling him for a good haul, especially if that included one of the two RBs I previously mentioned. I rank Cam Akers as a top 12-15 RB, not yet a top-8 or even top-5 like Fantasy Twitter wants him to be.
Hey, thanks for reading the article. My DMs are always open to any question, critic, or fantasy advice in any format. You can find me on Twitter @MisterMartinez9.
