DAY 1: Buffalo Bills

As we anticipate the start of the 2017 NFL season, the DFF Degenerates Roundtable (@DFF_Degenerates) will tear down every team in the NFL – #32teams32days. We’re going round-trip to tackle the entire country – AFC East to West, then NFC West to East. We didn’t have to do it, but we did.

 

Buckle up! It’s going to be a bumpy ride. We’re traveling to another dimension between the pit of man’s fears and the summit of his knowledge… that’s the signpost up ahead – our next stop – the RED ZONE.

 

 

AFC EAST

In the first of our series, we visit the

Buffalo Bills

Sammy Watkins – Worth the investment? Overrated?

@DFF_Madman: Sammy Watkins? His ADP is still too high at 26 overall (as of July 2017 DFF results). While I love his skillset – and like most dynasty owners I imagine the possibilities of Sammy at 100% in a functional offense – the guy is always banged up. He has missed 11 games since 2015! That’s a problem. Watkins’ has a bum foot (Jones Fracture) that may never be right again. He’s had other injuries as well. He just left practice this week after hurting himself in non-contact and the Bills signed Anquan Boldin. I mean, we’ve seen more of this than fantasy points:

@DiBari22: I’ve never been a Sammy fan and that has paid off thus far in my fantasy life. His draft price has always been too high for me to pay for him. I’ve let other owners pay his going rate, and more-or-less, they have never gotten the return on their investments.

@ChristipherBean: Sammy Watkins WAS overrated.  I’ve been on record as calling him a better Torrey Smith.  However, suddenly we have a first-round pick who has put up big numbers when healthy and who is an absolute target hog available at discounted rates because of the great bargain creator – injuries. For the first time, I’ve moved him to a “buy” status – although I haven’t acquired him anywhere… yet.

In truth, I’m most excited to see Andre Holmes get a bigger role.  Big, fast, talented, effective when used by the Raiders. We’re not talking a ton of money but he IS the second highest paid WR on the Bills.

You can read more about Sammy Watkins here.

 

Zay Jones – Thoughts? Is he taking the WR1 role or nah?

@DFF_Madman: I like Zay Jones, but I’m not as high on him as others. In July, his rookie ADP at DFF was 15 overall. That’s not a bad spot, but there are other rookies I like better and can get in the same range of picks. 

15 Jones, Zay BUF
16 Golladay, Kenny DET
17 Smith-Schuster, JuJu PIT
18 Godwin, Chris TBB
19 Samuel, Curtis CAR

I also think Andre Holmes is a nice sleeper this season and the price is right! Eventually, Jones could grow into that lead WR role, but this season he’ll be the Bills WR2 or WR3, behind Holmes – and if healthy, Watkins.

@DiBari22: I think Zay Jones is a solid PPR prospect. Seems like a guy that can catch a bunch of balls and be relied on out of the slot, but I also thought that about another ECU product, Justin Hardy, and that has looked bad in hindsight. Do I think Jones can become a true WR1 for fantasy? Maybe, but it’s hard to see that with the Bills as they’re currently constructed but he’s probably going to be their #1 long term.

@ChristipherBean: Zay Jones looks like a good enough prospect: Great athleticism. Good Dominator Rating. Average Breakout Age.  Even his Comp list has some great names like Amari Cooper, Jordan Matthews, James Jones, and Jeremy Maclin. My issue is that disgusting 11.1 YPR – which is lower than any “Comp” in my entire database. The only guy with a sub-12 YPR and having any type of high-level NFL success is Antonio Brown. Beyond that, we have a handful of names like Andre Roberts, Tavon Austin, Mohammed Sanu, Kenny Stills, etc. There are other targets at his price to acquire.

@FatAdamSchefter: Love me some Zay Jones. He has such vast potential. He has strong football bloodlines and a very high football IQ. Although his routes were not as deep as Bean wants them to be, it does not mean he won’t become the number one WR on an underwhelming Buffalo offense. He lit up and showed that deep speed at the Senior bowl which in turn helped his draft stock go from a 4-5th round selection to a high 2nd round. Watkins time is over, so move the F–K on. If Tyrod Taylor uses his noodle he will work extra hard with Jones. At 6’2” he can hold down either a slot or an outside receiver position as he has shown recently at camp.

 

LeSean McCoy – 2017 rushing champ? Some say so… Will he play 16 games?

Jonathan Williams – The heir apparent?

@DiBari22: I had a few McCoy shares last year and I enjoyed the ride. I also tried to move on and trade him where I could during the off-season. McCoy has been a great NFL running back and a solid producer for fantasy, but he’s also about to turn 29 and has only played 16-games 3 times over his 8-season career. He may have another solid year-or-two left in him, but I’m selling while I still can. Look in your crystal ball… eventually, he’s what Jamaal Charles is this year and good luck trading him.

@ChristipherBean: I could make an argument that McCoy had the best season of his career last year. Certainly, he did when it comes to second-level running – which has always been his bread and butter. Additionally, the great OL and little real competition have me anticipating another great performance this year. Meanwhile, trading a 29yr old RB with an injury history is a nightmare. If you have any chance at contending I’d ride Shady to the end.

@DiBari22: I think Jonathan Williams is being very overlooked right now. He flew under the radar last year as injuries derailed his college career and as McCoy and Gillislee put up numbers he languished in the background. But with Gillislee out of the picture and McCoy getting older, Williams is the last man standing on a team that made Karlos Williams look good for a season.

@ChristipherBean: Williams is at best a handcuff, not the “heir”.  Shady’s eventual replacement isn’t on this roster… unless they actually hand the ball to Dri Archer.  I don’t know if Archer is “big enough” for the NFL, but I know his metrics are legit:

Pass Catcher (19.2% Target Share, 96th Percentile)

Hyper Agile (10.92 Agility Score, 94th Percentile)

Speed Demon (4.26 40yard Dash, 100th Percentile)

Archer put up 1429 yards rushing at 9.0ypc (100th Percentile) at Kent State in 2012.

@DFF_JamesH: I rode on Gillislee for the back end of last season due to the unreliable nature of Shady and his injuries. A year on, he isn’t going to get less injury prone, so I will again be riding Buffalo’s back up in Williams. I am a big fan (as shown in my Dodgers and Sleepers article), and I believe that he can be a solid back up to McCoy.

 

Tyrod Taylor – Still an underrated fantasy QB?

@DiBari22: I’m not a scout. I’m not a big X’s and O’s guy. I know where my shortcomings are and I use other tools to overcome them. That being said, Tyrod sure passes the eyeball test for fantasy purposes. However, the Bills are a team the desperately needs to have their QB situation ironed out, and they sure seemed pretty reluctant to sign him to his current deal that runs through 2021 with a potential out after 2018. They also drafted a rookie QB in this draft (Nathan Peterman) that many people feel will be NFL ready after a little seasoning under his belt. If he’s not good enough for an NFL team, I’m thinking he might not be good enough for me either.

@ChristipherBean: It’s pronounced “TyGod”.  And the Bills Front Office should thank him every day for not walking away.  He’s a solid QB, and for Fantasy purposes, he’s the QB Konami Code of high rushing volume at the QB position.

 

Coaching change – Will it bring good things for fantasy?

@DiBari22: Sean McDermott comes to Buffalo as a former defensive coordinator and has arguably been one of the better DCs in the NFL the last few years. If that was the direction they wanted to go, why not keep Jim Schwartz in 2015? It was a bit of a head scratcher to go from Marrone to Ryan then to McDermott. The defensive minds aren’t working here, they should have brought in a guy from the offensive side in my opinion.

@FatAdamSchefter: I think the front office wanted to have Rex Ryan put his money where his mouth is and run everything his way. This, in turn, gave him zero opportunities for an excuse if he failed. I agree that they should’ve just kept Jim Schwartz but, then if Big Mouth Rex had a scapegoat, he would’ve used it. Now, he must own it.

@DFF_Madman: All I know is the Bills are going to run the ball and that means good things for Shady until he gets hurt. Then it’s JWill time. JWill is going to tote the rock a little anyway, in short yardage situations and at the goal line.

@DFF_JamesH: What Jeremy (@DFF_Madman) said.

 

Thank you for reading. We hope this helps you in your quest to find the Holy Grail of dynasty football.

 

You can follow the DFF Degenerates Roundtable on Twitter: @DFF_Degenerates

Individual Twitter accounts:

@DFF_Madman

@dibari22

@ChristipherBean 

@FatAdamSchefter 

@DFF_JamesH

 

jbrowand

Dynasty Football Factory Editor, Writer, Ranker, Analyst. Building dynasties one player at a time! Sky's the limit and them haters can't get past that. #Cleveland #Buckeyes #DynastyFootball

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