In the Dynasty format of fantasy football, it’s easy to get caught up in future projections with rookies that we have not seen play yet at an NFL level. It’s important to look ahead at what these rookies will accomplish in the future, but each one has a starting point that will affect their future value and influence betting lines at sites with the most popular features. Some players will break out immediately, and some may take time to develop based on their talent level and how quickly they get an opportunity to see the field. Here are the top Dynasty rookie running backs and what to expect in fantasy and at the sportsbook in 2024.
Jonathon Brooks (RB – CAR)
Jonathon Brooks was the first running back off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft selected 46th overall by the Carolina Panthers. Brooks was the consensus RB1 due to his well-rounded skillset including elusiveness, contact balance, and a combination of strength and 4.45 speed that resulted in 6.2 yards per carry at Texas. However, Brooks tore his ACL on November 11th last season, and the typical timeline to return to true form is about 10 months. He’s expected to be ready to go at the start of the 2024 season, and current reports are that he’s being eased into training camp. The good news is that it was a clean tear and no other ligaments were damaged.
Brooks is also only 20 years old and should heal quickly, but the Panthers have no reason to rush him back as they’re likely not contending for playoffs this season. Brooks has limited competition at his position. The Panthers paid Miles Sanders (RB – CAR) a big contract in 2023 only for him to fall flat on his face and rush for only 432 yards. Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) largely outplayed Sanders and took the bulk of the carries rushing 902 yards on 238 carries. Hubbard only had 3.79 yards per carry, and Brooks should have no problem taking his spot as the RB1. New Panthers Head Coach Dave Canales was previously the Offensive Coordinator in Tampa Bay last season, and it’s no secret that he likes to run the ball. Rachaad White (RB – TB) had the third most rushing attempts by a running back in the NFL last season with 272. While Brooks should be eased into this season coming off the ACL tear, I expect him to be a playable RB3 (Top 36) in fantasy after the first few weeks.
2024 Projection: 200 rushing attempts, 850 rushing yards, 35 receptions, 250 receiving yards with six touchdowns for 175 fantasy points in PPR scoring.
Trey Benson (RB – ARI)
Trey Benson was drafted 66th overall by the Arizona Cardinals, taken as the second running back in the 2024 NFL Draft. Benson is known for his 4.39 speed and tremendous burst and acceleration. He’s an explosive downhill runner and has shown some ability in the receiving game catching 20 balls in his final season at Florida State. Benson joins James Conner (RB – ARI) who led the Arizona backfield with 1,040 yards on 208 attempts in just 13 games. Conner is now 29 years old and many expect Benson to step in for him when the time is right, but I don’t think Conner is out of gas yet.
In 2023, Conner forced 27 missed tackles and averaged five yards per carry. He’s averaged 15+ fantasy points per game over the last two seasons with Arizona. The only knock against Conner is that he has trouble staying healthy. He’s never played a full season in his seven-year NFL career and has missed four games in each of the last two seasons. This could benefit Benson early. As soon as Conner misses time he should see an uptick in usage. We can’t forget that Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) is one of the most skilled rushing quarterbacks in the NFL and has averaged seven rushing attempts per game in his career which can take away from the running back position. Trey Benson may get off to a slow start if James Conner and Kyler Murray stay healthy. I expect him to remain on your Dynasty bench waiting for 2025 as an RB4 (Top 48) unless we see a significant injury that would provide him an opportunity.
2024 Projection: 130 rushing attempts, 550 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 150 receiving yards with four touchdowns for 114 fantasy points in PPR scoring.
Blake Corum (RB – LAR)
Blake Corum was selected 83rd overall in the third round by the Los Angeles Rams. Corum was the most productive rookie running back in the 2024 class rushing for 3,736 yards and 58 touchdowns in his four-year career at Michigan resulting in 5.5 yards per carry. He has more experience than the other rookie running backs and is the most NFL-ready. At 23 years old with 674 rushing attempts under his belt, he has more tread on the tires and may have less longevity in the NFL, but he may have a better chance to break out sooner than some of the young guns.
Corum joins second-year player Kyren Williams (RB – LAR) who was a pleasant surprise last season as he rushed for 1,144 yards in just 12 games resulting in over five yards per carry. Kyren was a fifth-round pick, and history shows that it’s hard to trust Head Coach Sean McVay regarding running backs. Kyren fits perfectly in McVay’s offensive scheme, so I think he’s gained McVay’s trust and it’s his backfield to lose.
However, the Rams need to keep Kyren healthy. He played an average of over 80% of the Rams snaps in 2023 and some games did not leave the field. It’s not sustainable for a running back to carry this much of a load and be without injury. Kyren missed four games last season, and I’d bet that a large part of drafting Corum was to take some of the workload off of him. Recent reports say that Corum is already impressing in camp as McVay has said he’s “really stood out” and will “definitely have an opportunity as a pass catcher” which is exactly what fantasy managers want to hear. Corum will have some flex appeal in 2023 and I’m projecting him to finish as an RB3 (Top 36).
2024 Projection: 150 rushing attempts, 650 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 250 receiving yards with six touchdowns for 156 fantasy points in PPR scoring.
MarShawn Lloyd (RB – GB)
MarShawn Lloyd was selected 88th overall in the third round by the Green Bay Packers, who revamped their running back room this offseason. They lost Aaron Jones (RB – MIN) to the Vikings and signed former Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) to a large contract. Lloyd didn’t get much volume in his college career at South Carolina and then USC in his final year, but he did make the most out of the touches he was given. He averaged an impressive 7.1 yards per carry and had the highest elusive rating of this rookie class, per PFF. He was also effective in the receiving game with 17.8 yards per catch.
Lloyd will play second fiddle to Josh Jacobs, who is second in the NFL in rushing yards over the last five seasons with 5,545. But we can’t ignore that AJ Dillon (RB – GB) remains on the team. Even though he was one of the league’s most inefficient runners last season with only 3.44 yards per carry, Dillon has averaged over 180 rushing attempts in the three seasons. I expect Green Bay to move on from Dillon in 2025 when his contract expires as Lloyd is a more skilled player, but he may need to prove himself in his rookie season before he takes snaps away from the veteran. He had fumbling issues in college losing the football 10 times in 325 carries, and it may take time for Head Coach Matt LaFleur to trust him enough to be the 3rd down back. Reports are that he’s taking kick return snaps in voluntary OTAs. Depending on training camp, Lloyd may be the third option in the Packers backfield until he can earn more snaps. Lloyd will likely be an RB5 (Top 60) in 2024, and I expect him to remain on your bench or taxi squad until he gets a shot at more volume.
2024 Projection: 80 rushing attempts, 350 rushing yards, 15 receptions, 100 receiving yards with two touchdowns for 72 fantasy points in PPR scoring.
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