Are you struggling to sort through the mess of (allegedly) middling running backs in this 2024 draft class, and are unsure how to rank them? Well, this article should be just the piece for you. I’ve been digging into this 2024 RB class this offseason and wanted to share some of my findings from a metric standpoint. We’re talking purely about numbers in this article; we’re not taking film study into consideration.
I pulled several efficiency metrics from who I believe are the 20 best running backs in this draft class. Keep in mind that these are numbers from just this past season. Here is a description of the stats I pulled:
- YPA – Yards per attempt
- YCO/A – Yards after contact per attempt
- MTF/A – Missed tackles per attempt
- Elusive Rtg – PFF stat measuring the success of a runner independent of blocking
- PFF Run Grade – PFF stat measuring effectiveness as a rusher
- TPRR – Targets per route run
- YPRR – Yards per route run
- PFF Receiving – PFF grade for pass routes
- Pass Block % – Percentage of pass plays used as a blocker
- PFF Pass Block – PFF grade measuring effectiveness as a pass blocker
Takeaways
The metrics I pulled help to show how these prospects performed as rushers, receivers, and pass protectors in college. I color-coded each statistical category based on whether the prospect landed in the top third, middle third, or bottom third of the group.
For example, with YPRR, I subtracted the lowest number of the group from the highest, then divided by 3.
1.96 – 0.28 = 1.68
1.68 / 3 = 0.56
1.96-0.56 = 1.4, so 1.4-1.96 was the top third.
1.4-0.56 = 0.84, so 0.84-1.39 was the middle third.
And that would make the bottom third the remaining portion of 0.28-0.83.
The only category where I couldn’t do this was the PFF receiving grade. Dylan Laube’s score was so good that he was in a tier of his own, so I included 70+ scores in the top third and 60+ scores in the middle third.
Obviously, there is more to consider when grading out a prospect for fantasy football purposes. We have to consider the level of competition, combine results, athletic scores, draft capital, and landing spot. Most of these things won’t be available to us for another couple of months, so I wanted to break down where strengths and weaknesses lie for these prospects from an analytical standpoint.
Rushing Metrics
The top guys of this group were Jaylen Wright and Isaiah Davis, finishing in the top third in all five rushing metrics. Not far behind these two were Jonathon Brooks and Bucky Irving, with four finishes in the top third, and then Marshawn Lloyd with three. It is worth noting that despite being in the middle tier in YPA, Audric Estime had the second-highest yards after contact per attempt. This may suggest that he was put in more difficult situations against stacked fronts.
Receiving Metrics
Dylan Laube takes the cake in this contest, not only finishing first in all three categories but blowing out the competition. To put it in perspective, Laube’s 1.96 YPRR was more than Jacob Cowing, Keon Coleman, and Adonai Mitchell. His 24.3% TPRR was more than half this WR class, including Brian Thomas, Devontez Walker, and Javon Baker. Unfortunately, he scored so poorly as a rusher that his odds of ever being a three-down back in the NFL are slim. He may need to transition over to receiver to find success.
Outside of Laube, the most impressive pass catchers were Jaylen Wright, Jonathan Brooks, and Bucky Irving. Bucky actually led the FBS for RBs with 61 targets in 2023. Another standout was Frank Gore Jr., who demanded over 20% of the targets while running routes for Southern Miss.
Pass Blocking
The two categories I used for this section were usage (opportunity percentage) and PFF pass block grade. This is a section where you may want to do your own film evaluation to determine how you view these prospects as pass protectors. One can only be so accurate in boiling down pass block efficiency to a single number.
I felt the opportunity percentage was worth including, as it shows us how much the team trusted that particular player to protect the quarterback on passing downs. We know RBs who can be trusted to pass block are likely to stay on the field in the NFL, even if they lack in other areas (see Kyren Williams).
Based on the numbers, the best pass blockers in this group appear to be Frank Gore Jr, Audric Estime, Jaylen Wright, and Kimani Vidal. Others who graded well included Jonathon Brooks, Trey Benson, Daijun Edwards, Kendall Milton, and Dillon Johnson. This second group just didn’t get quite as high an opportunity share as the first group.
I found it a bit concerning that Bucky Irving was used sparingly in pass-block situations and graded out so poorly when he did. However, he ran 330 routes this past season, which could be seen as a positive. He was relied on too heavily as a receiver to be in the backfield blocking. Hopefully, an NFL team will use him the same way.
Overall
Jaylen Wright came out as the best overall RB analytically, finishing in the top third in 9/10 categories and didn’t finish in the bottom third in any. He was an efficient rusher used heavily as a pass catcher and pass protector for Tennessee. Now, that doesn’t mean Wright is my RB1 in this class. Draft capital and landing spot are important factors, and there are currently a handful of guys projected to go ahead of Wright in the NFL Draft. However, I do think he is being undervalued in Dynasty and could carve himself a significant role at the next level.
A few other guys worth mentioning that graded out well were Jonathon Brooks, Bucky Irving, and Audric Estime. I was surprised to see Trey Benson score pretty average across the board, although several of his numbers were just a hair below the top tier. Lastly, Isaiah Davis graded out incredibly well as a rusher and decently well as a receiver. He’s currently projected to be a 5th-round pick on NFL Mock Draft Database but has flown under the radar as he attended an FCS program.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
