Dalton Kincaid | Utah 6’4” 246 lbs. | 11/18/1999 (23)
Dalton Kincaid was drafted by the Buffalo Bills, becoming the first Tight End and 25th overall player in the 2023 NFL Draft.
COLLEGE PRODUCTION
Kincaid was one of the more productive tight ends in this class. As a former basketball player, he was lightly recruited and chose to attend San Diego. He transferred to Utah in 2020 where he began to flourish as a football player. In 2021 as a junior, Kincaid had 510 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. His senior year resulted in 70 receptions for 890 yards and eight touchdowns. Kincaid’s 2.19 receiving yards per team pass attempt ranked second in the class to Michael Mayer. His 13.3 career fantasy points per game average also ranked second to Mayer.
FILM
Kincaid projects as a move tight end with impressive route running for a tight end. He tracks the ball well and knows how to find soft spots in the defense. Kincaid has soft hands and an impressive catch radius. Kincaid is a receiving tight end more than a blocker. His strength and blocking ability are subpar for an NFL tight end. This may limit his snap count at the NFL level.
ATHLETIC TESTING
Interestingly, Dalton Kincaid did not participate in any drills at the combine or pro day. Kincaid and his agent likely saw that he was heading for first-round draft capital and felt that testing could only move him down.
We do have his measurements of 6’4” and 246 pounds.
Kincaid is following the path of other successful tight ends as a former basketball player who converted to a football tight end. As a multi-sport athlete, we do know the athleticism is there. We just do not have the concrete Combine numbers.
DRAFT ANALYSIS
Rapid Reaction to Draft Capital: Excellent
Rapid Reaction to Landing Spot: Excellent
Kincaid was selected with the 25th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft by the Buffalo Bills.
FANTASY INSIGHTS
This is a very deep tight-end class. Kincaid is likely to go in the late first or early second round of dynasty drafts given his high draft capital. This is a little rich for my blood. I prefer Mayer overall and the value you can get later from guys like Laporta, Musgrave, and Kuntz. A player like Mayer has Kincaid beat in all the predictive analytical metrics such as RYPTPA, Breakout year, Best season weighted dominator, early declare, and college career fantasy points per game.
However, Kincaid’s landing spot is a juicy one. Expect the Bills to use Kincaid more as a big slot vs a true tight end. He has a clear path to significant target share in a high-volume offense. Kincaid is much closer to Mayer after the draft than he was before it for me.
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