In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class’s wide receivers, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. We will count down the top-15 pass-catchers with their comparable players as our countdown to the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 29th.
In this edition of the article, we will also introduce the ‘Rotoviz Celebrity Shot’ section. This will be done by using the Rotoviz Prospect Box Score Scout. I will share the most similar player based on their profile and presumptive draft capital.
3. DeVonta Smith
Physical: DeVonta Smith did not weigh in at the Senior Bowl, nor the Alabama Pro Day. For comparisons, the Heisman winner is going to need to use our assumed measurements and testing scores. At his listed height and weight of 6’1” and 170 lbs. which equates to a BMI of just 22.43, this is unchartered space. Several players got top two-round draft capital while being in the 160 to 180 lbs. range, most notably DeSean Jackson.
Athletic: Again, we are projecting here because the Heiman winner did not and will not test after his senior year accomplishment. Smith ran a 4.49-second 40-yard dash in high school. At that speed, his athleticism cannot be questioned. Players selected in the top two rounds who have a speed score between 80 and 90, which Smith’s 83.66-speed score falls within have been very productive in the NFL. Smith is certainly an outlier, however, he is an outlier similar to Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson was.
Production: DeVonta outproduced former first-round picks in Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, and future potential first-round pick Jaylen Waddle. Smith won the Heisman and every other award that wide receivers are eligible for in college football. He had a historic season. He had a 42% adjusted dominator rating, only 11 other Power Five players have averaged over four yards per team pass attempt. He had a truly historic final season.
Rotoviz Celebrity Shot: Based on being drafted at, or around the 12th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft his closest comparison is Tavon Austin with a similarity score of 89 (out of 100).
Final Comparison: DeVonta Smith is a unicorn. His only valid comparison is Marvin Harrison and if you squint hard, Calvin Ridley. Smith may be the most bust-proof wide receiver prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft, but still a major outlier.
2. Ja’Marr Chase
Physical: Chase is the prototypical outside alpha WR1 standing at 6’0” and 201 lbs, Chase has a favorable BMI compared to many recent great receivers and a loose comparison to a Hall of Famer. At his LSU Pro Day, Chase ran a 4.34-second 40-yard dash at his size which is very impressive. Chase can be compared favorably to Reggie Wayne, along with several other successful NFL wide receivers.
Athletic: Ja’Marr Chase tested much better than his film had conveyed, he also came in about 15 lbs. lower than expected. Based on Chase’s weight and speed, he compares favorably to former teammate Justin Jefferson, along with Charles Rodgers and Troy Williamson. However, these aren’t the only metrics that Chase tested well in.
Ja’Marr Chase ran the 40-yard dash in 4.34-seconds when many of us were expecting closer to a 4.4-seconds flat time. He also leaped 41” in the vertical and 132” in the broad jump. He also put up over 20 reps of 225 lbs. on the bench. There are only two other wide receivers that ran a sub-4.35-second 40-yard dash, over 20 reps on the bench, and over a 40” vertical leap. Chase athletically is in rarified air, just as D.K. Metcalf and Rondale Moore are.
Production: As a sophomore, Chase was one of the most productive wide receivers ever. He caught 73 passes for 1,498 yards and 18 TDs. His average reception of 20 yards is above the 16-yard per catch threshold that downfield threats in the NFL typically produce in college. As you can see by the below chart, only Justin Blackmon produced at this elite level as a sophomore in college.
Rotoviz Celebrity Shot: Based on being drafted at, or around the 6th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft his closest comparison is Kevin White with a similarity score of 94 (out of 100).
Final comparison: Chase has few true comparisons, but has all of the tools of an alpha receiver in the NFL and his immaculate strength at the catch point and after the catch draws comparisons most like a smaller Terrell Owens or a faster Anquan Boldin.
1. Kyle Pitts
Physical: Pitts measures in over 6’5” and 245 lbs. during his Florida Pro Day. There are very few players at wide receiver or tight end to be at this elite size. Since 2000 only Matt Jones, Vincent “V-Jax” Jackson, Calvin “Megatron” Johnson, Noah Fant, and Chase “Mapletron” Claypool have similar size among first and second round recent draft picks. Pitts may have a “Tron” nickname in store for himself down the road.
Athletic: Kyle Pitts is an absolute freak athlete. At 246 lbs. he ran a 4.4-second 40-yard dash, which equates to an elite 126-speed score. He also leaped 33.5” in the vertical and 129” in the broad jump. He completed 23 reps of 225 lbs. on the bench. He also ran a 4.3-second short shuttle, only O.J. Howard, T.J. Hockenson, and Noah Fant have accomplished this among first-round tight ends since 2010.
Production: Pitts hauled in a total of 100 catches in his career at Florida. He took those 100 catches and turned them into 1,492 yards and 18 TDs. In his final season, he posted 43 catches for 770 yards and 12 TDs, and he did this missing four games. Had Pitts been active and healthy for those games he was on pace for 64 catches for 1,155 yards and 18 TDs.
Rotoviz Celebrity Shot: With an assumed draft capital in the top-ten picks in the 2021 NFL Draft Pitts’ closest comparison is Noah Fant with a similarity score of 80 (out of 100).
Final Comparison: Kyle Pitts is a unicorn, his closest comp may be Michael Phelps. Within the sport, Pitts is a blend between Vernon Davis and Calvin Johnson.
Thank you for tuning in to DFF’s 2021 NFL Draft Coverage! Stay tuned as we break down every fantasy-relevant pick during the draft. Please consider becoming our yearly DFF subscription so we can deliver top-notch analysis and fantasy breakdowns. Our yearly subscription will save you $40 and lead you to fantasy championships.
Thank you for reading my article! If you would like to interact with me feel free to reach out to my @DynastyDiagnos1 Twitter account! Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty and #Devy content along with rankings for @DFF_Dynasty. #DynastyFootball #FantasyFootball
