In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class’s wide receivers, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. We will count down the top-15 pass-catchers with their comparable players as our countdown to the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 29th.
In this edition of the article, we will also introduce the ‘Rotoviz Celebrity Shot’ section. This will be done by using the Rotoviz Prospect Box Score Scout. I will share the most similar player based on their profile and presumptive draft capital.
9. Kadarius Toney
Physical: Toney measured at 5’11” and 193 lbs. which equates to a BMI of 26.45. Based on these measurements he is most similar to Devin Hester. Interestingly, Toney was listed as a utility player through his first three college seasons, similar to Hester’s role in the NFL. He also compares similarly to Reche Caldwell, Marqise Lee, and Corey Coleman from a physical perspective.
Athletic: Toney is electric in space, but he lacks suddenness in his game. He ran a 4.4-second 40-yard dash, which at 193 lbs. equates to a 103-speed score. He performed an elite sub-seven-second three-cone and a 4.25-second short shuttle. However, Toney failed to bench 10 reps of 225 lbs. and bench press is the most strongly correlated athletic testing metric to NFL success.
Production: As mentioned, Toney failed to earn a role as a wide receiver until his senior season. In his senior season, he did catch 70 passes for 984 yards and 10 TDs. However, he failed to surpass the 30% dominator rating to be eligible for a breakout age. Toney has a similar production profile to Josh Gordon and an Osh-Kosh group of players. Toney also had a couple of gun-related off-field issues in 2018. He may be more interested in producing rap music, than producing fantasy points in the NFL.
Rotoviz Celebrity Shot: If Toney is drafted in the first round in the 2021 NFL Draft his closest comparison is Phillip Dorsett with a similarity score of 74 (out of 100). If Toney falls to the second-round in the 2021 NFL Draft his closest comparison is Keyshawn Martin with a similarity score of 93 (out of 100).
Final Comparison: Toney likely will serve as a return specialist at the NFL level, as he did his first three college seasons. If playing offense, he will likely be used in the screen game and on RPO slant plays. Toney is a miniature Darius Slayton, in the body of Devin Hester.
8. Elijah Moore
Physical: Standing at 5’9” and 178 lbs. which equates to a BMI of 25.91. Although he will likely be primarily a slot receiver in the NFL, he proved at Ole Miss that he can produce outside once he got the opportunity after A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf moved on to the NFL. Moore compares favorably to players such as Santana Moss, Eddie Royal, Phillip Dorsett, and KJ Hamler.
Athletic: Moore competed during the Ole Miss Pro Day and may have impressed scouts enough to have earned first-round draft capital in a very strong draft class. Moore ran a 4.32-second 40-yard dash. He also nearly broke the NFL record in the three-cone drill running it in 6.6-seconds and the short shuttle in 4-seconds flat. Only Phillip Dorsett and Tyreek Hill can say that they tested as fast as Moore in all of the speed drills.
Production: Elijah Moore played with A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf during his freshman year, but still found his way on the field and earned opportunities. Then as a sophomore, Moore exploded onto the scene making up 36% of Ole Miss’s receiving yardage and 54% of their receiving TDs, earning an age 20 breakout age. He then went on to catch 86 passes for 1,193 yards and eight TDs in just eight games in 2020.
Elijah Moore had a very strong season, here is how it compares to other slot receivers. It was even more impressive when looking at these stats through efficiency metrics.
Rotoviz Celebrity Shot: If Moore is drafted in the first round in the 2021 NFL Draft his closest comparison is Brandin Cooks with a similarity score of 100 (out of 100). If Moore falls to the second-round in the 2021 NFL Draft his closest comparison is DJ Chark with a similarity score of 92 (out of 100).
Final Comparison: Elijah Moore comes into the NFL in the body of Phillip Dorsett, but is capable of Tyreek Hill level of athleticism. From the slot, he compares favorably to Juju Smith-Schuster and Tyler Boyd. The perfect similarity score to Brandin Cooks holds merit when looking at his change of direction speed.
7. Terrace Marshall Jr.
Physical: Terrace Marshall Jr. measured in at 6’2” and 205 lbs. at his LSU Pro Day. This equates to a BMI of 25.8. Testing at that size several comparable players, however, Charles Rodgers is the closest from a physical match perspective. However, if we open it up a bit we can include Rashaun Woods, Derrius Heyward-Bey, Josh Doctson, and Zay Jones.
Athletic: Marshall tested very well in the athletic testing portions of the LSU Pro Day. At 205 lbs. he ran an elite 4.4-second 40-yard dash, which equates to an above-average 109 Speed Score and a very good 319 WR Freak Score. To go along with that he tested well for someone above 6’2” tall Marshall jumped 39” in the vertical and 125” in the broad jump. He compares loosely to D.J. Moore, Bethel Johnson, Torrey Smith, Javon Walker, Mark Bradley, and Denzel Mims.
Production: Marshall recorded 23 TDs over the past two seasons, despite playing in only 17 games. He recorded 106 catches for 1,594 yards and 23 TDs in his three-year LSU career. He was the fourth-fiddle in the historic 2019 LSU offense, behind Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. When those three players moved on to focus on their NFL career, Marshall produced as a true alpha receiver despite the clear decreased talent on the roster. His best season concluded with a 27% adjusted dominator rating, 1.74 yards per team pass attempt, and 1.18 adjusted yards per team play.
Rotoviz Celebrity Shot: If Marshall is draft in the first round in the 2021 NFL Draft his closest comparison is Breshad Perriman with a similarity score of 80 (out of 100). If Marshall falls to the second-round in the 2021 NFL Draft his closest comparison is Chris Godwin with a similarity score of 80 (out of 100).
Final Comparison: Marshall will come into the NFL as more of a 1B receiver than an alpha receiver, but has the ability to produce as much as he is given the opportunities. He looks like Charles Rodgers, but moves like D.J. Moore, and ultimately will be a jump-ball receiver in the NFL with the upside of any of the players listed above that come from blue-blood receiver development programs.
Be sure to check in as we unveil the pass-catcher ranked from six down to one and who they compare similarly to as we count down to the NFL Draft next Thursday.
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