LOOKING BACK
Harrison Bryant was a diamond in the rough among one of the most underwhelming tight end draft classes in some time. Although Bryant was ranked outside the top five prospects in the class for many, he was by far the most productive receiving tight end in his final season of college football compared to the likes of Cole Kmet and Adam Trautman. He finishes his senior year at FAU with 65 receptions for 1,004 yards and seven touchdowns, good for a 19.9% team target share. He was a focal point of FAU’s offense considering his 26.2 (81st percentile) college dominator rating but we can look to the yards per team pass attempt (YTMPA) metric to further highlight his importance to the team. He finished 2019 at the top of the class with 2.0 YTMPA, a historically difficult threshold to reach.
While Bryant dominated the 2019 season at FAU, he broke out at a much younger age. In fact, his breakout age of 19.4 falls within the 90th percentile. Unfortunately, many NFL front offices overlooked his accomplishments and he didn’t receive the high draft capital that would get the fantasy community excited. That said, he was quite productive as a rookie fourth-round pick slotted as the backup, at best, to veteran Austin Hooper. Bryant finished his rookie campaign with 24 receptions on 38 targets for 238 yards and three touchdowns. For context, just 18 other tight ends selected fourth round or later reached 200+ yards and 30 or more targets. George Kittle, Aaron Hernandez, Chris Herndon, and Randy McMichael are among his counterparts in this regard, though they received a much higher target share.
THE HERE AND NOW
Much of Harrison Bryant’s production in 2020 could be attributed to Austin Hooper missing time due to injury, but he certainly made the most of his opportunity, however it may come. I don’t think we should punish a player for factors out of his control. Nevertheless, he could surprise us in 2021 just as he did in 2020. I doubt anyone foresaw the sixth TE drafted having possibly the best rookie season of the bunch.
We can be infatuated with Bryant as much as we want but we also must acknowledge that he plays for the Browns, who are notorious for a low passing volume offense. So, unless there is a major injury to Hooper, which is entirely possible, Harrison Bryant is unlikely to make a serious impact on your dynasty roster in 2021.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS
Harrison Bryant may not make a significant fantasy impact in 2021, but he’s surely going to improve as a player and continue to impress the coaches. Austin Hooper carries some dead cap but there is an out in his contract in 2023 leaving the door wide open for Bryant to land the lead role as the starting tight end for the Browns. I don’t see him having top-five upside as the volume we are all digging for in a fantasy tight end just won’t be there. He would need upwards of 80 targets for that kind of finish but I’d say he’s more of a 50-70 target type tight end with top-10 upside at max potential.
To that point, Bryant profiles as an H-Back or move tight end. At 6-5 243 pounds he provides versatility for the Browns to use him as an inline blocker but also get him in mismatches with linebackers and nickel corners. He can also line up wide or in the slot, so he exhibits very few limitations at the position. We already have seen them use him this way, take a look at the clips below:
The most appealing figure of all is Bryant’s dynasty Superflex ADP of 265.6, according to Sleeper. His reasonable draft cost makes it much more palatable to hold him and wait for the breakout. I believe he’s proven he can play in this league, has the size and skill set to succeed, and most importantly the apparent opportunity in the near future to take over as the starting tight end on his team.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF.
