PAST PRODUCTION
Damien Harris was drafted by the New England Patriots in the 3rd round of the 2019 NFL Draft after spending four seasons at Alabama. As a rookie, Harris struggled to find the field. Buried behind Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead on the depth chart, he finished his rookie season with just 4 attempts for 12 yards.
Harris found more success in his sophomore season. In ten games, he carried the ball 137 times for 691 yards and 2 TDs. However, with just 7 targets in that span, he failed to make a real impact in the receiving game. During that stretch of ten games–Weeks 4 through 14–Harris was the RB29. His 9.1 PPR points per game placed him between Devin Singletary and Jamaal Williams for the season.
2021 OUTLOOK
Damien Harris projects to start for the Patriots in 2021 with Sony Michel slotting in as the backup. James White and Rex Burkhead are free agents, leaving J.J. Taylor to fill the receiving back role unless the Patriots acquire another RB in free agency or the draft.
Harris will most likely lead the team in carries. However, the Patriots do not project to have a strong offense overall in 2021. The team has major question marks at quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end, and with Cam Newton returning behind center, goal-line carries could be relatively difficult to come by.
Furthermore, it’s hard to project Harris for a significant uptick in targets despite his ability as a receiver. The Patriots are notorious for running a specialist backfield with one between-the-tackles bruiser and one receiving back. We’ve seen this with Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead, LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen, and, most recently, Sony Michel and James White. In fact, since 2006, Dion Lewis is the only Patriots RB to record 100+ attempts and 20+ receptions in the same season. Considering all of these factors, I expect Harris to provide fantasy managers with low-end RB2 production in 2021. He should have a safe floor but a limited ceiling.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS
Currently, Damien Harris doesn’t carry much value in dynasty formats, and it’s easy to see why. He’s in a split backfield on a bad offense, and he doesn’t have a lot of prior production to fall back on. Despite those concerns, I believe Harris is worth buying low. He’s still just 24 years old, and he has been effective when called upon. At worst, he should operate as New England’s first and second-down back until his rookie contract expires after the 2022 season. Look into acquiring Harris for the price of a late 2nd round rookie pick, even if you don’t intend to keep him on your roster. His value will rise as the season approaches and his role as the starter is solidified.
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