LOOKING BACK
2020:
Drafted Third Round, 81st overall by Las Vegas Raiders
6’3” 212 lbs
12 Games Played
15 Targets, 11 Receptions, 193 Yards, one TD
2016-2019:
A four-year starter at the University of South Carolina; was recruited at 15 years old and started Day 1
48 Games Played
234 Receptions*
3,045 Yards*
22 TDs**
Flashed as a freshman with 44/590/4
Averaged 7.1/86/0.6 through 10 games his senior year or 18.9 PPR FPs
*1st all-time at South Carolina
**2nd all-time at South Carolina
THE HERE AND NOW (2021 Outlook)
Many of us in the dynasty community were excited about Bryan Edwards last season, but based on the stats he put up as a rookie, it is fair to call him a rookie face planter. Historically, wide receivers who fail to reach meaningful thresholds are longshots to ever emerge in the future. I think Edwards can be an exception to the rule. Given proper context, much of last year’s poor fantasy stats can be explained.
Rookies who did not get to fully participate in the offseason program due to COVID protocols were at a unique disadvantage in terms of their development. It makes it tricky to compare anyone from the 2020 class to prior classes. It should be noted the 2020 class is looking to be one of the most impressive ever, and plenty of rookies that did emerge didn’t seem to struggle with the lack of offseason preparation, but truly I think we all need to admit it has got to be hard to learn a playbook and to be new to the NFL and all the rest of it.
Bryan Edwards flashed in training camp, nonetheless, as a rookie. He didn’t do anything special early in the season and that shouldn’t be seen as a huge negative. He hurt his ankle in late September and didn’t come back until Week 9. Injuries can easily derail a rookie season. By that point, Nelson Agholor (WR – LV) had emerged as the clear #1 wide receiver and main receiving compliment to Darren Waller (TE – LV). It would be hard for the rookie to earn his way back onto the field, but he did it despite also falling on the COVID list during this time. Yet, he finished the season strong. Strong enough, in my opinion, that it justified some of the optimism I had about his college profile when he came out.
But the drumbeat in this 2021 offseason has been nothing less than thundering. Coach Jon Gruden is certainly a colorful personality and prone to hyperbole, but by all accounts, Edwards has been tearing it up in practices. Gruden has compared him to Terrell Owens and Randy Moss. Many people, including this analyst, believe that when you see players sit out preseason games, it is because they are presumed starters. All reports have said it will be Henry Ruggs III (WR – LV) and Edwards at wideout this year. It is possible that Ruggs is the rookie face planter that doesn’t hit and that Edwards becomes the receiver to own in Vegas.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS
If he starts and plays well this year, there is no reason to think he can’t be a perennial 70/900/8 kind of guy for the next three to five seasons with upside for more if he takes a step in his development. He is going to get opportunities this year, and we should learn quite a bit more about his ultimate trajectory this fall. Agholor is gone, John Brown (WR – LV) has always been better as a number three anyway, and Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV) also fills an important but ultimately complementary role. Ruggs is the field stretcher that is meant to hit the occasional home run shot and will certainly be involved, as will the running backs. But Waller and Edwards should be the target leaders.
I expect 100 targets for Edwards, which is a steal at his current dynasty startup ADP on sleeper.com of 172 as WR71 but he may finish as a WR2. In FFPC startups he is going as WR59 at 145, somewhere around the 11th-13th round. You can probably buy him from the right owner for a future second-round rookie pick. Maybe less.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to reach out to me to chat about fantasy football on Twitter @Ship_Chaser and follow along with me on my journey as I chase six-figure paydays! Look for my new articles soon!
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