2019 Using Combine Numbers To Predict RB Success

It’s that time of the year again folks! The NFL draft is just around the corner. Draftniks are breaking down film and furiously debating players. Dynasty players are awaiting upcoming rookie drafts and locking in their rankings.

For the past few years, I have shown my process of using combine stats to help discover which running backs have the best chance of success at the next level. I use Speed Score, Agility Score, Twitch, and the 3-cone drill.

Without further ado, here is how the 2019 crop of running backs stack up as well as some notable successes from each group.

Success Rate = Top 20 fantasy season

High Risk:

Players in this group failed to meet the Speed Score threshold of 100. This group a success rate of only 16.8% with only 8% of players achieving multiple top 20 seasons.

Notable Successes:

Arian Foster, Tennessee

Mark Ingram, Alabama

Devonta Freeman, Florida St

Alvin Kamara, Tennessee

Kareem Hunt, Toledo

James Connor, Pitt

Chris Carson, Oklahoma St

Players That Could Succeed Based On Opportunity:

Mike Davis, South Carolina(Bears)

Kenneth Dixon, LA Tech(Ravens)

Jamaal Williams, BYU(Packers)

Aaron Jones, UTEP(Packers)

Ronald Jones, USC(Bucs)

Moderate Risk:

Players in this group reached the Speed Score threshold but have an agility score greater than 11.50. This group sees an uptick in success rate at 18.8% with 12.5% achieving multiple top 20 seasons.

Notable Successes:

Marshawn Lynch, Cal

Joseph Addai, LSU

Jonathon Stewart, Oregon

Derrick Henry, Alabama

Players That Could Succeed Based On Opportunity:

Damien Williams, Oklahoma(Chiefs)

Dalvin Cook, Florida St(Vikings)

Ito Smith, Southern Miss(Falcons)

Low Risk 2:

Players in this group reached the Speed Score threshold of 100 and also had an Agility score of less than 11.50. This group has a success rate of 29.8% with 21.1% achieving multiple top 20 seasons.

Notable Successes:

Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma

Maurice Jones-Drew, UCLA

Chris Johnson, East Carolina

DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma

Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio St

Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin

Joe Mixon, Oklahoma

Nick Chubb, Georgia

Players That Could Succeed Based On Opportunity:

TJ Yeldon, Alabama(FA)

D’Onta Foreman, Texas(Texans)

Royce Freeman, Oregon(Broncos)

Kerryon Johnson, Auburn(Lions)

Kallen Ballage, Arizona St(Dolphins)

*Note: Henderson’s Shuttle and 3 cone numbers are from his reported pro day*

Low Risk 1:

Players in this group have reached all thresholds from the previous groups along with having a Twitch score less than 1.25 and a 3 cone less than 6.85. This group has an impressive success rate of 52.4% with 38.1% achieving multiple top 20 seasons.

Notable Successes:

Matt Forte, Tulane

Jamaal Charles, Texas

Ray Rice, Rutgers

DeAngelo Williams, Memphis

Le’Veon Bell, Michigan St

David Johnson, Northern Iowa

Christian McCaffrey, Stanford

Players That Could Succeed Based On Opportunity:

N/A

2019 Low Risk 1 Notables:

No Players in the 2019 class made the Low Risk 1 grouping

*Notable Incomplete Scores: Karan Higdon and Justice Hill both reached the Speed Score threshold but have an incomplete profile due to not participating in all drills.

cgarrett

Bachelor's in Sports Management from GCU || College Football Scouting || Writer for Dynasty Football Factory #DFFArmy #DynastyFootball #DynastyValues

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