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Wide Receiver Breakout Detector

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Overview

Everyone wants to find the next sleeper/potential breakout player. First, what do we define as a breakout? I define it as someone who finishes as a top-24 receiver. The most likely time to detect these sleepers is in their first three years because, as the theory states, wide receivers break out in year three, but in recent years, it has been earlier. For the most part, year three breakouts are still alive and well. First, I looked at the characteristics of WR1s and WR2s. On average, a WR1 averages 18 points per game (PPG) and a WR2 15 PPG. I created three groupings based on this: WR1, Top-24(Borderline WR1/2), and WR2. So, what indicators should we look for? I settled on yards per route run (YPRR), targets per route run (TPRR), and target share. I chose those three stats because they explain three pivotal questions: Is the receiver being efficient (YPRR), is the receiver getting targeted efficiently (TPRR), and is the receiver a crucial piece of their team’s offense (target share)? I created thresholds by looking at the past five years’ top 24 receivers by PPG and their average year one through three in the previously stated stats. 

Data Dump

Here are three charts explaining these thresholds:

WR1

YPRR TPRR Target Share
Year One 1.90 19% 18%
Year Two 2.00 23% 24%
Year Three 2.20 23% 25%

Top-24

YPRR TPRR Target Share
Year One 1.80 19% 18%
Year Two 2.00 22% 22%
Year Three 2.10 22% 24%

WR2

YPRR TPRR Target Share
Year One 1.70 19% 18%
Year Two 1.90 20% 20%
Year Three 1.90 20% 22%

Those are a lot of thresholds, but which ones are the most important? 

For a WR1, it is year one YPRR, year one target share, and year three target share. The less important ones are year two YPRR and year one TPRR.

For top-24, it’s year three YPRR and all three years’ target share. The less important ones are year one and two YPRR.

For WR2, it’s year three TPRR, as well as year one and three target share. The less important ones are year two and three YPRR and year two target share. 

How many should you hit to see a high increase in odds of joining one of these groups? To arrive at this data, I looked at the 2021, 2020, and 2019 wide receiver draft classes.

For a WR1, one should cross six thresholds. In year one, one should cross two, and by year two, one should’ve crossed four.

For a top-24 receiver, one should cross seven thresholds. In year one, one should cross three, and by year two, one should’ve crossed five.

For a WR2, one should cross four thresholds. In year one, one should cross two; by year two, one should’ve crossed three.

Action

What can we do with this data now? I have used these thresholds and analyzed the last two draft classes—2022 and 2023. Here are all the 2022 receivers that joined any group with their current WR ADP:

*Only ran 112 routes in year one, but 385 in year two.

Treylon Burks (WR62), Christian Watson (WR30), and Romeo Doubs (WR32) were some of the receivers who came close to joining any of these groups.

2023 class:

**Only ran 26 routes.

Jonathan Mingo (WR57) and DeMario Douglas (WR49) were close to joining these groups.

There were always going to be more in 2023 as opposed to 2022 because it is less prestigious to be on pace for joining these groups after year one instead of year two. Does this mean anyone not listed has no chance of breaking out? No! All this means is they have lower odds than those I listed. My takeaways are to buy low on Dontayvion Wicks, Treylon Burks, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jonathan Mingo, and DeMario Douglas. All of these feel like values, given what the data shows about their potential.

Thank you for reading this article. It means a lot to me! If you’re interested in more Devy, Dynasty Fantasy Football, and NFL Draft/Scouting content, check out my Twitter/X, @Justin_Massie_ #DFFArmy #DynastyFootball

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