Heady Mafia, the franchise tag option deadline for NFL teams has come and past and you know what that means. Chaos and bedlam all over the place! Now, most people will just give you a list of teams that this player might sign with and others give teams that can offer the most money but let’s be honest. Only one thing matters to us. Fantasy production. In particular, fantasy production for the hottest running back on the market and the one I own in most of my dynasty leagues, Aaron Jones (AJ33).
The criteria for this are simple. What team offers AJ33 the best opportunity for fantasy production. Nothing more, nothing less. Salary cap be damned. I am going with the best spot that will help him finally be king of fantasy running backs. What qualifies for this? For me, I break it down into three categories, offensive line, touches per game, and playmakers. Once we have those identified, I’ll pull the rabbit out of the hat and tell you where I want him going for fantasy.
Offensive Line
AJ33 HAS to sign with a team that had a top-12 offensive line last year or the year before. Why the year before? Because I said so. While true, it’s because of the weird nature that was the 2020 season and I felt it was -gasp- the responsible thing to do. Unless your name is Barry Sanders, you’re not running anywhere without a solid set of hogs in front of you and neither is AJ33. That list consists of the Rams, Packers, Eagles, Ravens, Cowboys, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Denver, Chiefs, Cardinals, Bills, 49ers, Saints, Colts, Washington, Tampa, New England, and the Browns.
Touches Per Game
If the lead running back (outside of that weird Cleveland thing, is it a committee? Fifty-fifty split? Hot hand? TELL ME!) isn’t getting at least 16 touches a game, then my boy, the TRUE A-A-Ron ain’t playing there. So that gives us the Eagles, Denver, Chargers, Saints, Browns, Packers, Cardinals, Miami, Dallas, Chicago, Oakland, Tennessee, and Minnesota.
The Playmakers
This right here is without a doubt one of the most important factors going into deciding where AJ33 ends up playing next year. We would be crazy to not think that AJ33 would not have been seeing more stacked boxes and focus on him had it not been for Rodgers and Adams lighting up defenses like tiki torches. Thus, the team he ends up with needs to have at LEAST a solid quarterback and wide receiver combo. Those teams in no particular order are the Packers, Cowboys, Tampa, Cardinals, Seattle, Chargers, Rams, Tennessee, Chiefs, Atlanta, Bills, and Steelers.
One more thing before we drop the curtain…
The Ring
What? Do you think I’m going to send my boy off to a team that doesn’t have a chance at a ring AND fantasy production? Poppycock. If you don’t think him playing for a ring doesn’t deserve at least a mention then you don’t know what playing football, both fantasy and real life, is all about. That ring BABY! The cutoff for these teams was 25/1 because let’s be honest, the Jet’s aren’t winning a super bowl for at least a decade, bet. That leaves us with Tampa, Kansas City, Green Bay, Baltimore, Buffalo, Rams, 49ers, Saints, Colts, Seattle, Dallas, Cleveland, Miami, and Tennessee.
The Reveal
Fantasy-wise, it came down to three teams for me, the Packers, Tampa, and the Cardinals. The lack of touches per game for their running backs quickly dismisses Tampa despite the obvious chances at a ring. That leaves us with the Packers or the Cardinals. End of the day, Arizona yet again makes a coup and wins over yet another talented player from Wisconsin. The critics will say that Kyler Murray is the lead back in Arizona. To that, I say check your stats. While Murray did rush for over 800 yards and 11 scores, the other two rushers ran for 1,403 yards and caught another 539 on 88 catches, plus 15 tuddies. Even if AJ33 only garnered 75 percent of those stats next year, he would have scored as RB4 with 277.6 points. While that might not be stats worthy of being king, if you think he goes for anything less than 1,500 total yards next year playing in the desert then you’re nuts. Bring on the Cardinal, Black and White.
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THE FINAL VERDICT
In a surprising move that shocked the NFL community, Aaron Jones resigned with Green Bay with a four-year, $48 million contract with $13 million in signing bonus. Initial reactions to this were shock and dismay, for half the people believed AJ33 finally got paid and the other half was shocked he stayed. But alas, the devils in the details. This contract is really just a two-year deal with AJ33 making the league minimum for two years with minimum cap hit. 2023 will be the deciding year as his cap hit explodes to over $19 million and AJ33 is on the cusp of turning 30, which in today’s NFL, is practically ancient.
What does this mean fantasy-wise? Not a dang thing. AJ33 is still a top-five running back in fantasy and he will continue to crush it next year and potentially the next, as long as AR12 is the one controlling the reigns of one of the most potent offenses in the league. The key will be knowing when to pull the ripcord on a trade for picks/upcoming talent. For me? That will probably be at the end of this season because I’m a sell-high type of guy. Plus, I own Dillon in fantasy.
Speaking of AJ Dillon, Williams is gone from that backfield. This means Dillon will still be trotted out during the fourth quarter to be the battering ram with his quads that can crush more than hopes and dreams of other team defenses. He’s a hold in dynasty as he is one injury away from being a top-five running back and will still probably end up as RB30 on the season.
