As an Eagles fan, I know how fickle NFL success can be. One minute you’re high off your first Super Bowl win. Your head coach and young quarterback are rising stars in the NFL. Then you whiff on a few draft picks, retain a few players past their prime, and a couple of years later you’re dead last in the worst division in football. Your coach is fired, your quarterback is traded, and the once talent-rich roster is almost unrecognizable.
The collapse of the Eagles should serve as a cautionary tale for all dynasty managers. If you want to avoid a long, messy rebuild, don’t squander your draft picks, don’t overpay for declining players, and don’t let young talent get away.
Unfortunately, that’s all easier said than done. Mistakes are made. Players miss expectations. Bad trades are accepted in the heat of the moment. The truth is, if you play dynasty for long enough, you will eventually find yourself faced with a roster in need of rebuilding. This leads us to an important question.
When Is It Time to Rebuild?
There is no exact science for evaluating a dynasty roster. Player values are always in flux, and situations are constantly changing. And every league is different. A contender in a 10-team 1QB league is going to look vastly different than a contender in a 16-team SF league. That being said, you don’t want your roster to be dominated by players past their prime age. This is roughly age 25 for RBs, 27 for WRs, 29 for TEs, and 33-35 for QBs. Once a player is perceived to be declining, or past their prime, their dynasty value can dissipate almost without warning. For example, in recent seasons we’ve seen the rug pulled out from under “older” players like Todd Gurley and Julio Jones due to injury. If any of your valuable pieces will be playing shuffleboard at the retirement home in a few years, you should consider selling those assets off and starting a rebuild. Otherwise, you’re taking on a ton of risk.
But rebuilding isn’t always just about dumping older players. If your roster is suffering from a serious lack of talent or depth, you may be forced into selling young studs to jumpstart a rebuild. It might seem counterintuitive to sell cornerstone assets like A.J. Brown and Justin Herbert, but sometimes you need to shoot for quantity over quality. If you can get a massive haul of rookie picks, you can quickly work your way back into contention by drafting well or using those picks as trade chips in future deals.
Does the Time of Season Matter?
You will also find that beginning a rebuild is easier at different times of the year. You can get the best return for productive veterans during the fantasy season. Your league mates are more likely to overpay for Tom Brady, Travis Kelce, or Julio Jones if they believe they have a shot at the title. Strike while the iron is hot and flip those aging assets for future draft capital. During the season and even until January or February, you can acquire rookie picks for a reasonable price. This is also a good time to target rookies that failed to meet expectations (see: Jeudy, Jerry).
Once March rolls around, however, you’re at a disadvantage. By March, most fantasy gamers have come to their senses about “buy-low” options like Jerry Jeudy and Denzel Mims, and, even worse, rookie fever is in full effect. From this point forward, every incoming rookie is bound for Canton and most first-round rookie picks cost their weight in Bitcoin. If you haven’t gotten your rebuild started by now, you may have to wait until July or August when the dynasty community remembers that non-rookies exist.
Consider Your League
As you size up your roster and determine your plan for 2021 and beyond, make sure you compare it to other teams in your league. Take a deep breath and put aside your biases. Be honest with yourself. Does your squad have what it takes to go the distance? If the answer is yes, you can stop reading this article and start picking out a nice trophy case. But if the answer is no, or even maybe, a rebuild is probably your best option. The middle is the absolute last place you want to be. If you don’t expect to be at the top of your league standings this year, make it your priority to finish at the bottom instead.*
*Just don’t break any of your league’s anti-tanking rules in the process.
Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.
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