The Dynasty community sadly lost an important member this week. Justin Fields (April 29, 2021–March 16th, 2024) was the foundation of Justin Time, Fields of Dreams, and Leave it All on the Fields. His loss will leave a big gap in our community and will be sorely missed. Donations to his Dynasty owners can be made in the form of FAAB, an organization Justin was passionate about and dedicated so much of his time to. Justin is survived by his heir, Caleb, and brothers on the field D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet, and Khalil Herbert. Rest in peace to your Justin Fields Dynasty shares.
Ok now for the serious part –
You got caught holding the bag on Justin Fields. Now what?
“It’s fine to celebrate success, but it is more important to heed the lessons of failure.” – Bill Gates
First, all Dynasty managers need to separate fantasy from reality.
Far too many people in Dynasty think just because a player is scoring them fantasy points means he is good at actual football. The tea leaves have been there for Justin Fields for over a year—he posted the 8th lowest QBR in the NFL this past season, he is a prolific all-time sack taker, and he ranks dead last in all-time career sack rate. Now the Bears pass blocking wasn’t elite, but it also wasn’t terrible. Last year, per PFF, the Bears’ pass block grade ranked 23rd of 32 teams. Sacks are just as much a quarterback stat as they are an offensive line stat and by this stage of his career, Fields should have progressed in this area of his game. General managers value this pocket presence tremendously. By EPA, 1 interception = ~2.5 sacks.
When the Bears were trending for the first overall pick with a generational QB on the board, the etching had already started on Fields’ gravestone. Dynasty owners have to hedge their bets and do a better job of incorporating job security into their player value evaluations. This is the lifetime Justin Fields Dynasty chart –
As you can see from the graph, Field shares had numerous exit points while he was piling up fantasy points while struggling on the field. He compiled an 11-29 record in his three seasons with the Bears. He was given a TON of leash.
This brings us to Jayden Daniels.
I wrote an article on January 5th here outlining Daniels’ fantasy prospects.
Here is an excerpt from that article –
“Despite never proving to be a better-than-league-average QB and with his future in tremendous doubt, Fields is still valued as the QB14 overall by the Dynasty community. He has been between QB10 and QB14 for most of his career.”
Why? Because he is a starter producing at a high clip for fantasy. He is QB7 in fantasy PPG this year. Job security is a fatal flaw in many Dynasty managers’ player evaluations. This brings us back to Daniels. If Daniels gets top 15 draft capital, he has a high probability of starting a minimum of two years, likely three to four. If he starts, he has a high probability of being a QB1.
It is highly likely Daniels outscores both Caleb Williams and Drake Maye in Dynasty his first two years. When that happens, he will be right there in valuation to both of them. The key will be when to move off of him if he is not proving to be a good real-life quarterback. You have two to three years to make that decision though and, in the meantime, reap the benefits of a QB1.”
The NFL still hasn’t been able to figure out if college quarterbacks can become NFL starters. Their hit rate is abysmal with only about 30% of first-round selections becoming stable NFL starters. That also means armchair GMs at home who aren’t spending millions researching this can’t evaluate quarterback prospects. So my advice to you is don’t attempt to do it.
What we know for a fact is the large majority of first-round NFL quarterbacks are given ample chances to succeed, this usually is multiple years as an NFL starter.
We also know that quarterbacks with Jayden Daniels’ production are elite fantasy options.
So my advice to you is to draft Jayden Daniels in your Dynasty rookie drafts and draft him high. 1.02 after Caleb Williams is the right spot. I am not convinced Daniels is a 10-year NFL starter but that doesn’t matter. If he is the number 2 overall pick, he will start multiple years and will be a top-12 fantasy quarterback. As a young QB posting top-12 fantasy stats, he will also be a top-10 or higher Dynasty asset.
BUT THE VERY IMPORTANT PIECE OF THIS IS TO MONITOR HOW HE IS DOING IN REAL-LIFE METRICS LIKE EPA, QBR, TD TO INT RATIO, SACK RATE AND WIN %.
If those aren’t up to par, then that is when you pull the trigger on a trade. In the meantime, you will have reaped the benefits of his fantasy production and an appreciating asset.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership.
