PAST PRODUCTION
Tyler Boyd‘s Dynasty Profile is loaded with impressive stats and metrics. He had the sixth-best dominator rating at 36.4% among power five true freshman receivers since 2000. Boyd finished his college career at Pitt with 254 catches for 3,361 yards and 21 TDs. He was drafted in the second round of the 2016 draft by the Cincinnati Bengals after his junior season.
Boyd got off to a slow start due to a knee injury that kept him out for five games in 2017. After two seasons Boyd had a per-game average of four targets, three catches, 31 yards, and 0.12 TDs. At age 24, Boyd had his breakout, catching 76 passes on 108 targets for 1,028-yards and seven TDs. Boyd finished as the fantasy WR17 in PPR formats with a total of 221.1 points. This was also the 15th best season since 2010 for 24-year old wide receivers.
In 2019 Boyd was the number one option in the Bengals passing attack and his 148 targets yielded 90 catches for 1,046-yards and five TDs. Boyd finished as the WR18 in PPR format, and this was the 20th best finish among 25-year old wide receivers since 2010. The quarterback play took a major step back in 2019 between a sub-par Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley season leading to Boyd having just the 57th best target quality. He still produced the 11th best passer rating when targeted, per playerprofiler.
2020 OUTLOOK
The Bengals drafted Joe Burrow who led the LSU Tigers to the most prolific offensive season in college football history. The Bengals faced the number one ranked pass efficiency defense in the NFL in 2019. This year they are projected to face the 25th best pass efficiency defenses in 2020. The Bengals are currently projected to win 5.5 games per Vegas insider, however, they are only favored in their Week 4 matchup against Jacksonville. This projected game script will force the Bengals to have a similar pass-rate to 63% in 2019.
Though a clear upgrade from Dalton/Finley to Burrow, I worry that due to the coronavirus pandemic already canceling all preseason games, rookies will face a tougher road to development than in a typical season.
Boyd is currently projected as Mike Clay’s WR30 after consecutive fantasy WR2 range finishes.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS
What does Tyler Boyd‘s dynasty profile look like for the next 3-5 years?
Over the long term the recent investment in Burrow as the franchise QB and the aging and soon departure of AJ Green, Boyd will be the number one option in a passing attack linked with a great QB. Boyd signed an extension that will keep him on the Bengals through the 2023 season, so his value will only go up in the coming years, barring injury.
Boyd has only missed two games due to injury over the past two seasons. Both were in 2018, and he still managed to finish as a top 20 receiver.
Interestingly enough, Fantasy Calculator does not have Boyd in their ADP data so we have to move to Dynasty Trade Calculator. Here Boyd is going as the 90th overall pick which is the 7.06 pick in superflex format. This is approximately the 23rd receiver off the board. Boyd is only 25 years old, making him younger than 14 of the 23 players ahead of him, which indicates his value will continue to rise comparatively.
Tyler Boyd is a nice player to have at his current value and will appreciate value as his offense becomes more efficient.
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