Truth or Bogus?: Week 14 Recap

The Fantasy Quarterfinals are complete. Just 4 teams remain in the mix for the championship. No matter how good or bad you feel your team is, you’ve essentially got a 25% shot at the trophy. Because, as this week proved, anybody can beat anybody else. The Derrick Henry owner could have throttled the Antonio Brown owner, the Amari Cooper owner could have crushed the Todd Gurley owner. This is Fantasy Football, folks!

So, with just two more weeks of fantasy football, it’s time to get serious. You all know the format by now, it’s time to break down the Truths and the Bogus’s heading into Fantasy Semi-Finals week.

Damien Williams is a Waiver Target Ahead of Week 15

BOGUS – I might be eating my words early, but unless I hear some news about Spencer Ware’s shoulder, I’m not going after Damien Williams.

Sure, he was a solid fantasy option last week thanks to his 2 TDs. But he was not a good real-life NFL running back, and shouldn’t be trusted moving forward. He ran for just 1.8 YPC on Sunday but added 4 catches for 16 yards. He managed 2 TDs on just 12 total touches, which is not sustainable for fantasy purposes.

Ware, on the other hand, did better than most expected when facing the top-tier Ravens defense. He put up 5 YPC and totaled 129 yards on his 20 touches. So he was far more efficient than Williams.

If Ware can’t go, I’m not even convinced that Williams has RB2 appeal. He’s a plodder who now has been outshone by Kenyan Drake and Spencer Ware in his career.

Derrick Henry’s Coming Out Party Means RB2 Status Moving Forward

BOGUS – I really, really, really want to put “TRUTH” here, as I’m a Henry owner in my dynasty league. But I can’t say that and put on a straight face.

There are many reasons why Derrick Henry had a monster day on Thursday Night Football, but his talent was not the only thing working for him. Don’t get me wrong, I think Henry has an enticing level of potential, but his skills have thus far been buried wayyyyyy down behind Dion Lewis and the Titans’ anemic rushing attack.

What DID happen on Thursday was a hopelessly lost franchise strolled into town with nothing to play for except pride and pride didn’t seem like that much of a factor. The Jaguars went belly-up. There’s no simpler way of putting it. Their once Hoover Dam-ian defensive line looked more like a cobweb against a waterfall. There was nothing holding back Henry. He did whatever he wanted on Thursday.

His 99-yard run was a thing of beauty. He earned that run, even if the defense gave him a huge amount of field to work with. He took what they gave him and then earned the rest of it. It was a beautiful sight.

The rest though? Total ineptitude on Jacksonville’s part.

Henry will likely earn a larger chunk of this timeshare, but he’s still a part of a timeshare. The Titans at least have a reason to play football over the next few weeks as they battle for a playoff spot. But a rushing attack doesn’t get fixed overnight. Henry remains a potentially-elite stash in dynasty and a FLEX in redraft, but no more than that.

George Kittle is a Top 3 TE in Fantasy For Remainder of 2018

TRUTH  – While week 14 was a big scale-tipper in this discussion, it can hardly be denied; George Kittle has arrived.

In a season where Rob Gronkowski, Evan Engram and Jimmy Graham have represented big-time disappointments, Kittle has emerged to prove that the TE position has some rising stars.

His incredible 210-yard performance has sent a clear signal to the NFL, and, I expect, the San Francisco 49ers: You can build an offense around George Kittle. Kittle has thrived without the presence of other stud receivers (as Engram did last year), nor did he do so in the hands of elite QB play (like Gronkowski and Graham have). Kittle has thrived catching passes from the likes of Beathard and Mullens.

Speaking of Mullens; the kid has game! Thanks to his incredible play over the past two games, Mullens is now averaging 295 Yards Per Game. That’s good enough for a tie for 5th amongst QBs in 2018 and is better than Brees, Brady, and Rodgers.

I think this largely has to do with Kittle’s dominance, as well as the eyebrow-raising performance of Dante Pettis. Mullens has some raw talent and could grow into an NFL starter, but he’s gotten help.

Moving forward, Kittle is an every-week starter, to say the least, and in my mind, he’s a top 3 TE for 2018 and into 2019.

Brees Can’t Be Trusted Moving Forward

BOGUS –  For the second year in a row, I’m left cursing Drew Brees for costing me a fantasy championship. This year, he left me hanging a bit early. But fear not, Brees owners who are still alive in the playoffs, things are always darkest before the dawn.

Brees remains at the helm of one of the most feared offenses in the NFL. While some point to the Saints clinching a bye week as a reason for Brees to let off the brakes, but that’s incorrect. The Saints still have plenty to play for, as they have very recent and painful experience with what it’s like to play a road game in the playoffs. Sean Payton and company want to earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and they need to beat out the Rams to get it done.

Tre’quan Smith should be playing at full-speed moving forward, and there’s now talk that Ted Ginn could return. This would open things up for Brees and the Saints to start moving the ball further downfield.

Plus, the Saints get to face off against a divisional rival in week 15, then they follow that up with a potential shootout against the Steelers in fantasy championship week.

My bold take out of all of this? Brees throws for at least 300 yards and 3 TDs in BOTH of the next two games and redeem himself while hoisting his fantasy owners to glory…. But not me :(.

That’s it for Truth or Bogus this week. Be sure to check back in for my FINAL article of 2018 next week when I break down the Fantasy Finals!

mlawson

@DFF_MitchLawson / Writer, Editor & Analyst for @DFF_Redraft & @DFF_Dynasty. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball. Canadian. Occasionally witty, stay tuned

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