Dynasty Football Factory

Truth or Bogus? – Week 1 Recap

The 2018 Fantasy Football season is officially underway and fantasy owners everywhere are either celebrating early success or mourning costly decisions.

Whether your team is looking sharp, or you’re facing a difficult road ahead, you always have to be building your squad up. You can’t rest on your laurels now. Make trades, use your waiver wire, and make smart lineup decisions, and you’ll find yourself in the best position to succeed.

But sometimes those decisions are difficult. It’s hard to tell whether fantasy news is reliable or not.

Welcome to ‘Truth or Bogus?’, my weekly recap of the biggest storylines of the week. In each installment, I offer my take on whether you can trust these stories or not.

Be sure to check out my Preseason recap here. Otherwise, let’s kick things off.

 

Will Dissly is a Priority Add After His Week 1 Performance

Will Dissly celebrates after his 15-yard TD catch

BOGUS – When a rookie TE puts up 105 yards and a TD during a week where Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, and Evan Engram combined for 29 yards, people are going to overreact.

The rookie Washington product got to make an explosive debut for his hometown ‘Hawks. That much can’t be denied. But I don’t believe he’s going to be a fantasy asset moving forward.

Dissly has never been a pass-catcher, so the Broncos simply didn’t gameplan for him, which allowed him to bust out a huge 67-yard catch, and also a 15-yard TD. On both plays, he was the beneficiary of brutal defensive play.

Nick Vannett is also a part of this offense, and Ed Dickson is slated to return to the team in 5 weeks. Sure, the injury to Doug Baldwin may open up some targets, but I don’t trust that they will go Dissly’s way.

Bottom line, this was likely the best game of Dissly’s season. It might be tempting to drop an underperformer like David Njoku or Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but I’d still prefer to roster both over Dissly.

Dissly remains a deep league bench stash in Dynasty, but in redraft leagues, I doubt he will be worth the waiver priority and FAAB.

 

Quincy Enunwa is the Jets WR to Own

TRUTH – Enunwa entered this season as the forgotten weapon for the Jets. He missed all of 2017 with a neck injury and didn’t feature much in the preseason due to a thumb injury.

Now completely healthy, Enunwa looks to be picking up where he left off in 2016. His 10 targets represented a ludicrous 48% of the target share for the Jets. Robby Anderson saw just one target and Terrelle Pryor saw three targets.

Operating in the middle of the field, Enunwa should see a heavy volume. The Jets don’t employ a big-bodied TE in that area and Darnold was an effective short-middle passer in college, as shown in this graphic that CFB Film Room Produced.

Enunwa won’t always eat up that much of the target share. But it’s clear he could be a major force in this offense. Kearse’s return doesn’t scare me, Robby Anderson plays an entirely different game, and Pryor is not a legitimate option. Enunwa could be in for a really nice season, and he’s a recommended add.

 

Josh Gordon Plays 78% of Snaps, is Worth a Start in Week 2

BOGUS – It seems like being low on Josh Gordon is my hill to die on in 2018. But it’s a big headline this week, so I have to throw water on the fires yet again.

Josh Gordon certainly was used more than Hue Jackson had stated. He also hauled in a TD catch which his owners were understandably excited about. He may have had just one catch, but saw three targets and was on the field a lot.

But again, as I’ve said before, his upside will always be limited. Jarvis Landry was targeted a ridiculous 15 times. That’s only fewer than Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and Antonio Brown. He’s the clear-cut favorite for Tyrod Taylor after getting in a full preseason. The Browns will also undoubtedly get more targets to Rashard Higgins and David Njoku as the season moves on.

The Browns will hit the road to face the Saints in New Orleans this week. Many are projecting big things for Gordon and the Browns due to the Week 1 thrashing that the Saints’ defense took. That is not wise. The Saints do have a good defense, but they had a terrible game. One in which they were clearly not prepared for.

However, they’ll be working all week to get ready for the Browns with some regular season tape to study. Josh Gordon will have good weeks this year, don’t get me wrong. But Week 2 might be another dud for #12.

 

Tyreek Hill’s Sunday Performance Suggests Elite WR1 Performance in 2018

TRUTH – Tyreek Hill’s critics definitely had some fair points for why Hill wouldn’t explode in 2018. He has a new QB, Sammy Watkins is in town, they have a tough schedule, etc.

But all of those criticisms were trumped for me with Hill’s effort on Sunday. Hill is exactly who he has showcased he was in previous years; an explosive and dangerous receiver who can hurt defenses in all phases of the game. His chemistry with Mahomes was palpable, and he absolutely shredded a Chargers defense that was forecast as a Top 5 unit by many analysts.

As for Watkins, he saw 5 targets and secured three for 21 yards. Considering that he’s largely cut from the same cloth as Hill in regards to speed and supposed deep-ball prowess, it was a poor outing.

Week 1 will definitely be one of the better weeks for Hill, but he’ll be a threat for a 40+ yard play every single time he touches the ball. With the volume he looks like he’s going to get, that could make him elite in 2018. I’m buying in.

 

Jared Cook Needs to be Added After His Monday Night Football Performance

TRUTH – Cook had a career night on Monday, and it could mean big things for his 2018 season. Cook posted a ridiculous 9-180-0 line, and was clearly Carr’s favorite target.

This might get chalked up as a one-off, but I think it’s a sign of future success. Jared Cook was amazingly the leading receiver on the Raiders last year. With Amari Cooper’s struggles, Martavis Bryant’s drama, and Marshawn Lynch’s lack of value in the passing game, Cook could be a monster.

As a huge Jalen Richard fan, I wouldn’t be surprised if they ramp him and he eats into Cook’s targets. But with the question marks all over the Raiders’ receiving corps, Carr and Gruden would be wise to keep Cook heavily involved.

Like most Week 1 players with a statistical explosion, this is likely Cook’s best game in 2018 — yardage-wise. But once the Raiders actually get to play in the red zone (only two passing plays in the red zone in Week 1), Cook could see his TD total rise in a big way.

mlawson

@DFF_MitchLawson / Writer, Editor & Analyst for @DFF_Redraft & @DFF_Dynasty. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball. Canadian. Occasionally witty, stay tuned

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