Welcome back to the semi-regular series “The Trading Post”. One of my favorite aspects of Dynasty Football is making trades. So much so that I actually co-host a podcast on the subject, the DynastyTradesHQ podcast (subscribe today!). I make a lot of trades, partly due to being in 25+ dynasty leagues, partly due to a constant hankering to improve my rosters. Sometimes I like to share my trades with you, the reader. That’s what I’ll do below.
— DynastyTrades HQ Pod (@DynastyTradesHQ) May 13, 2018
I received an initial offer of Andrew Luck and Mark Ingram for DeAndre Hopkins. Already rostering Marcus Mariota and Mitch Trubisky, with Josh McCown available for bye weeks in 2018, quarterback isn’t a pressing need for my roster. I rejected the offer and countered with the above trade which was accepted. As far as trade “negotiations” go this one was relatively painless.
This is a full point PPR, Superflex league (the best format to play).
Giving up a receiver who finished as the WR1 in overall scoring and the WR2 in average fantasy points per game in 2017 is not easy. Is Hopkins target dependent? Yes he is. So are most wide receivers. Of the top 10 wide receivers in overall scoring in 2017, all but Tyreek Hill (105 targets) saw at least 143 targets. Excluding Hill, the 9 other wide receivers in the top 10 averaged 156 targets. Hopkins exceeded that by a significant amount, 18 to be exact, finishing with 174 targets.
I do think that Hopkins is bit more target dependent than other wide receivers. In 2016 when Hopkins “only” saw 151 targets, he finished as the WR27 overall and WR35 in per game scoring. To be completely fair, most of those targets came courtesy of Brock Osweiler, so I’m not sure how much of the decreased scoring was due to fewer targets as opposed to terrible quarterback play. Essentially, this is a “How many angels can dance on the head of pin” argument. Hopkins upside is the WR1 and his floor, which included atrocious QB play, is in the WR2 range.
JuJu Smith-Schuster and Allen Robinson.
At last look, I was losing this trade by a 60/40 split according to Twitter. I understand the sentiment. As noted above a reasonable argument can be made that Hopkins is the overall #1 wide receiver in dynasty football. All things being equal I would have preferred to hold onto Hopkins, but the roster construction of my team didn’t allow for that. I like to submit lineups periodically to get a feel for what I’ll be rolling out on a weekly basis, assuming no injuries. Before making this trade, my 3rd receiver was one of the following players: Keelan Cole, Zay Jones, Terrance Williams or Cole Beasley. That is the definition of “ungood.”
The addition of Smith-Schuster and Robinson, allows me to push one of the above to the wide receiver 4 role (which is still probably a tad much to hope for) on my roster.
Smith-Schuster debut season could not have gone better. He finished as top 12 wide receivers in points per game scoring, vanquished Martavis Bryant and even flashed WR1 ability when Antonio Brown went down with an injury. In fact, Smith-Schuster went off in the absence of Brown, shown via Rotoviz’s Game Splits app.
While the sample size is a bit small to draw any conclusions from, Smith-Schuster was still on pace for a top 12 wide receiver season even when Brown was also on the field last year. Smith-Schuster is just 21 years old and another solid season of production could push his value into the late 1st, early 2nd round of startup drafts next year.
Since Allen Robinson’s WR8 (points per game) finish in 2015, things have not gone well. He finished as the WR36 (points per game) in 2016 and tore his ACL in week 1 last season. Still just 24 years old, Robinson signed a 3 year $42,000,000 contract with the Bears this offseason. Though the Bears have further bolstered their offense with the additions of Anthony Miller, Trey Burton, and Taylor Gabriel, I’d be shocked if Robinson doesn’t see at least 140-150 targets a season.
More work is needed to improve this roster. In fact, shortly after I made the trade above, I pulled off another trade in the same league.
— DynastyTrades HQ Pod (@DynastyTradesHQ) May 13, 2018
I traded an entire rookie draft for Jordan Howard. Having multiple 2019 1st (4 before this trade) and 2nd round (2 before this trade) rookie picks made this trade palatable. Adding a 3rd and 4th round rookie picks means nothing to me, their only worth in my eyes, is to be used as a sweetener in trades. Howard is another player I can comfortably slot into my starting lineup on a weekly basis. Though Tarik Cohen should see some additional usage now that John Fox is no longer allowed to ruin NFL offenses, Howard should maintain low-end RB1/ high-end RB2 status.
With three weekly starters off the Bears roster, I better hope that Matt Nagy can put their offense in a position to put up fantasy points on a weekly basis.
Thank you for reading. I’d love to hear your thoughts on either of the trades I made. You can leave a comment below or find me on Twitter @DFF_Shane. If you’re looking to get some action in on today’s games head on over http://GTBets.eu for all of your sports betting needs with updated odds covering all major sports. The bottom line… GTBets.eu will have you placing your first bet within minutes with their simple to use registration process. So, register now and earn up to $500 in free money! Simply add TRADESHQ in the “referred by” field to get the highest possible welcome bonus!