I love My Fantasy League. One of the many tools I use on the site is the top 10 weekly adds, available in the “News” tab. I check this daily to see what players are being picked up throughout the MFL universe. More importantly, this tool allows me to quickly see ten players that have gained perceived value. If I already own these players, I might look to capitalize on their sudden value spike, and if I don’t own them, then I might look to add them during the next FAAB run.
Starting today, I’ll review the week’s Top 10 adds and give you my fact-based opinions on these players. Are these players worth adding to your rosters? If so, are these players you should hold onto? Or should you look to sell these players and cash out on immediately?
Blake Jarwin: Nothing to see here. If you play in a TE premium start two TE league, I guess you could think about adding Jarwin. If you play in league with any less than 30 roster spots I see no reason to waste the FAAB or roster spot on Jarwin. Last season probable Hall of Famer Jason Witten finished with only five top 12 tight end weekly finishes, which was almost matched by his TE42 or worse weekly finishes (4).
I doubt that Jarwin, who will lose snaps to Dalton Schultz due to Schultz’s superior run-blocking ability, will be able to best Witten’s 2017 numbers. Reviewing Jarwin’s playerprofiler data doesn’t give me any confidence that he’ll amount to much. The undrafted Jarwin never broke out in college, had a terrible 10th percentile college dominator rating and is a middling athlete.
Adrian Peterson: It’s AP, I shouldn’t need to tell you anything about his professional resume. Peterson is a first ballot Hall of Famer. He’s also thoroughly washed. That hasn’t stopped me from adding him to multiple rosters, though. You may wonder why I’d add a washed up running back. Because I know I’ll be able to trade Peterson for a rookie pick. His name value alone is probably worth a 4th round rookie pick. If Peterson can rip off a game similar to his Arizona Cardinals debut where he went off for 134 yards and 2 TDs, a rookie 3rd will be on the table.
Any return on investment is going to be a profit once you move Peterson. If Peterson can somehow manage to put up three productive weeks in a row to start the season, I don’t doubt you’ll be able to move him for a 2019 2nd round rookie pick.
Chris Warren: I love big backs. Warren almost defines the big back description at 6’2″ and 246 pounds and has a strong athletic profile as an 83rd percentile Sparq-x athlete. Though Warren’s lack of college production is troubling, it’s owed more to an inability to stay on the field, 24 games over three seasons, than lack of ability.
Warren averaged a respectable 5.6 yards per carry over 204 college attempts. He also displayed receiving chops his final season with 18 receptions, in 12 games, with a 10.5 yard per reception average. During the latest DynastyTradesHQ episode @ScottBarrettDFB correctly pointed out a dearth of successful running backs taller than 6′, I’m willing to take a chance on Warren to break that mold.
At the time of submission of this article, Warren is leading the NFL in preseason rushing yards while averaging a respectable 5.43 yards per rush.
Though being among the preseason rushing leader doesn’t guarantee success, see 2017, it can point to success in some cases.
In 2016 Jordan Howard, a 5th round draft pick that year, parlayed his 6th ranked rushing preseason finish into a starting role and finished with over 1,300 rushing yards in the regular season. The 2015 preseason saw both Thomas Rawls and Jeremy Langford finish in the top seven in rushing yards. Rawls went on to average 10.8 fantasy points per game, finishing as the RB27 among running backs who played at least eight games, while Langford finished as the RB37. You shouldn’t chase outliers, but Warren just might be one of those outliers.
Warren is the exact type of player I like to add to the bottom of my rosters. Everyone else can go ahead and snatch up late round/undrafted wide receivers who need the black plague to decimate the receiver room to ever make an impact. I’ll take the player who needs just one injury to become the starting running back.
Jonathan Williams: Williams is the final player of any real interest to me out of this week’s top adds. Unless you reside under a boulder, you know that Mark Ingram is suspended for the first four weeks of the season due to a failed drug test. Ingram will also be an unrestricted free agent after the 2018 season when he will be 29 years old. Sean Payton showed last season he has no qualms storing a previously productive player, Willie Snead, securely into his dog house once they return from a suspension.
Terrance West seemed to be the odds-on favorite to fill in for Ingram during his suspension, but he was released this week. Now that role seems assured to belong to Williams. Last season Ingram averaged 14.38 rushing attempts and 4 targets per game a week playing with the dynamic Alvin Kamara. Williams is not the receiver that Ingram is and I don’t expect him to see many targets. What Williams will see is goal line carries. Last season Ingram finished 6th in rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line with 13. Kamara lagged far behind Ingram with just 4 attempts inside the 5-yard line.
Williams is just 24 years old, and if he performs well during Mark Ingram’s absence he could turn into a long-term value. At one time, before missing his senior season at Arkansas due to foot surgery, Williams was being discussed as a day one draft pick. Williams is my top add for this week.
Any other players of note:
If your league has taxi-squad slots feel free to pick up Trey Edmunds and Jake Kumerow. I don’t expect either player to amount to much, but that’s why we have taxi-squads. Luke Willson should already be rostered in most leagues. If Willson is available and your tight ends are weak add him today.