We don’t just approach the holidays and the end of the year, but the close to another Fantasy season. Playoffs begin for the winners and losers are probably playing their way out of league punishments. But if you’re like me and staring at a few rosters that definitely won’t make the cut and wondering what happened. This gives us the perfect opportunity for a little autopsy of the 2022 Fantasy landscape.
Yes, Zero/Hero RB Truthers Are Still Right
I know Josh Jacobs is a league winner. I know getting Saquon Barkley at the turn is considered a steal. But you could still win if you had taken Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, or Travis Kelce in the first two rounds. I broke down why RBs aren’t as valuable as perceived in detail in a previous article, but the numbers still favor my argument at the end of the fantasy regular season.
If we refer back to the VBD (Value Based Drafting) stat which weighs a player’s stats against the baseline (The RB24) we can see the same trends. Only five first-round RBs are in the Top-24 in this stat (Henry, Ekeler, Barkley, McCaffrey, Cook) and only two are in the Top-12. (Henry, Ekeler) When you consider that Josh Jacobs is first overall in this category and Rhamondre Stevenson is the PPR RB8 you have to start wondering if the positional volatility is worth the risk of a first-round pick. Remember next season that drafting pass-catchers and a top QB gives you positional advantages where production is more guaranteed and take the RBs that fall to the later rounds and waivers.
Tight End Isn’t Dead, It’s Just Getting Younger
“Tight End is bad this year” continues to be a yearly mantra and Fantasy Managers have even mentioned cutting the position like their kickers. But I promise that it looks much better in the future! Young stars like Pat Freiermuth, Greg Dulcich, and yes, Kyle Pitts will likely continue to see their stock rise and will be fun to have on your roster for the foreseeable future. Injuries to the studs of the past like Darren Waller, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews have left Travis Kelce as the sole stud atop the leader boards with everyone else a considerable gap below. But when we dig into advanced stats, there’s plenty to love about the future.
The 2022 Tight End Air Yard Share leaderboard with at least 300 routes run paints the picture of the future of the position’s landscape.
- Mark Andrews: 34.4%
- Kyle Pitts: 33.9%
- Travis Kelce: 24%
- Greg Dulcich: 22.4%
- Zach Ertz: 20.1%
- Pat Freiermuth: 19.3%
- Cole Kmet: 17.8%
- Dalton Schultz: 16.1%
- T.J. Hockenson: 15.9%
- Evan Engram: 15.3%
What this data set shows us are the players that have the potential to make up most of the team’s yardage as well as tight ends that are true difference makers and not just touchdown-dependent checkdowns. Not so uncoincidentally if I had to release dynasty rankings for TEs tomorrow it would look like this:
- Mark Andrews
- Kyle Pitts
- Travis Kelce
- Greg Dulcich
- Pat Freiermuth
- T.J. Hockenson
- Dallas Goedert (Out due to injury)
- George Kittle
- Evan Engram
- David Njoku
Top-5 of both lists don’t look so different, do they?
Bet On Talent Over Situation
A common mistake that even the most knowledgeable and reasonable fantasy managers make is passing on elite talent due to a bad situation. This is a big mistake in dynasty where we play the long game and in 2022 we learned that lesson even translates to Redraft to an extent. Enter: The Seattle Seahawks Receiving Corps. The unit most faded and wrote off after Russell Wilson was shipped to the Broncos is making Pete Carroll look like a genius in Week 15. Both receivers sit in the Top-13 with Metcalf only a point away from cracking Top-12.
It’s a bit harder for an offense to perform without good offensive line play but receivers and quarterbacks can succeed without each other. Remember when we were wondering if Patrick Mahomes (QB2) needed his top wideout or if Tyreek Hll (WR2) needed his generational QB? Or even worse, remember when we were fading Jaylen Waddle (WR11) because Hill was “The Guy” now? Pepperidge Farms remembers. And so should the folks who didn’t make playoffs for this type of thinking.
Talent over situation should be applied even heavier in dynasty rookie drafts. Drake London over Garrett Wilson could be a debate, but now we know it was a mistake ranking him lower than Treylon Burks. Speaking of Wilson…
Rookie Receivers Were Undervalued In Redraft Again
A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf were league winners in 2019
Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk in 2020.
Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle in 2021.
Now Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, and Chris Olave are poised to do the same this year.
Translation? Stop wasting late-round redraft picks on old veterans on new teams and try not to leave players with real to other rosters or waivers. Older players on new teams are always attractive due to their “safe” floors and name recognition. But drafting A.J. Greens and Jarvis Landrys is buying players that have already seen their ceiling and won’t likely be a major difference-maker on your roster. Whereas drafting a rookie is getting a high-pedigree player at their floor and still has room for a major boom.
It goes without saying that older players deal with nagging injuries much longer and much more often and are bad bets to help you down the playoff stretch. The key is patience with your rookie receivers and allow them the first 4-6 weeks to get up to speed and then reap the rewards of your patience while everyone is looking for the player already stashed on the waiver wire.
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