Tale of the Tape: Dak Prescott or Daniel Jones – Who is the Better Value at ADP?

Decades ago, Neil Diamond wrote a catchy earworm melody that eventually became the song ”I’m a Believer”, and it was subsequently performed by numerous artists over the years. Today, I am here to address one of the more polarizing players in Dynasty as the plaintiff representing Mr. Daniel Jones. You could say, “I’m a believer” and with this article, I will present the facts to hopefully turn you into one as well. After you deliberate, you can be the judge and jury and make your own decision on whether you are in or out on Jones.

When analysts debate players it is almost always regarding what value that player represents vs. their average draft position. My case is to present that Mr. Jones is a better value at average draft position (ADP) than Mr. Dak Prescott, the gentleman from Dallas.  For this exercise, we utilize the Bulletproof ADP which shows Prescott with a 2.11 and Daniel Jones at 4.09. Now I will say that this was an easier case to make earlier in the off-season. In our Dynasty Football factory analyst startup league in January, I selected Daniel Jones at the 5.08.

Let’s begin with the Tale of the Tape on these two quarterbacks.

Let’s start with the obvious surface-level analysis. DFF analyst Chris Miles proved in his, Breaking Down the Metrics article, Fantasy PPG has the highest correlation to next year Fantasy PPG.  Jones averaged 18.4 FPPG last year to Prescott’s 17.8. Jones has the lowest ADP of any QB under the age of 27 who averaged more than 18 FPPG last year by a full round. Prescott not only had a lower FPPG than Jones but he also is four years older. The surface-level analysis dictates Jones is not only the better value at ADP but should be a consideration straight up vs Prescott’s Dynasty value. 

So let’s go below the surface.

Coaching

A lot of my confidence in Jones materializes in my confidence in Brian Daboll. This is the man that completely transformed Josh Allen from a dreadful early professional performer into a fantasy unicorn.  Allen threw for a disastrous 52.2% and 58.8% completion percentage in his first two NFL seasons with 30 total touchdown passes. Allen erupted his third season for 4544 yards passing, 37 touchdowns, and a 69.2% completion percentage.

Jones is entering his second year of the Daboll system. Jones has a similar pedigree to Josh Allen. Josh Allen was drafted seven overall. Daniel Jones was drafted sixth overall. Both are big-bodied, rushing quarterbacks. In his first year, Daboll unlocked Jones’s rushing ability in the same manner he did for Josh Allen. 

A lot of Jones detractors will cite his middling performance before Daboll. It is not a coincidence that Mac Jones and Daniel Jones both took significant steps backward after their rookie seasons with Joe Judge influencing the offense.

Likewise, it is not a coincidence Daniel Jones had a great year once Judge left. Jones threw for just 21 total touchdowns in his two years playing with Joe Judge. People seem to forget Jones threw for 24 touchdowns his rookie year.

Meanwhile, our defendant Dak Prescott is far removed from his glory days. Prescott lost his offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, who helped lead Dallas to three top-six offensive performances in his four years in Dallas. Dallas hired Brian Schottenheimer to be their new offensive coordinator. Schottenheimer’s track record shows that he likes to lean more on the run game and play action. Schottenheimer was among the league leaders in employing the “inside zone” run scheme.

Analytics

By the advanced metrics, Daniel Jones had an excellent season. He eclipsed Dak Prescott in True Passer Rating by a considerable margin. 94.0 to 80.6. This ranked 8th and 22nd respectively. Both Prescott and Jones were excellent red-zone quarterbacks. They ranked 1st and 3rd respectively in red zone completion percentage. It is quite remarkable in a bad way that Jones ranked 3rd in red zone completion percentage while averaging less than one passing touchdown per game. You have to think those opportunities increase this year.

Jones was still dinking and dunking a little too much for most analysts’ liking last year. He averaged only 6.8 yards per attempt to Prescott’s 7.3. Granted when your receivers are one of the worst separator groups in the NFL this will affect that number. But Jones was extremely accurate with those opportunities. He ranked fifth in accuracy rating to thirteenth for Prescott.

Ceiling

What does the ceiling look like for each of these quarterbacks?

Well, it is pretty easy to get Jones into the second tier of quarterbacks behind Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts. Let’s just hypothetically say he has 0 improvement or regression in his rushing for last year. Let’s also say he has 0 improvement in his passing yards. All Jones would need to do to get to Joe Burrow‘s level of fantasy production last year is repeat his rookie year passing TDs of 24. That gets him to 21.6 fantasy points per game. Burrow had 21.7 last year which put him fourth overall behind the aforementioned big three.

Only two other quarterbacks even had over 20 FPPG. Those two were Lamar Jackson (20.3) and Justin Fields (20.5). Prescott has to work so much harder to get past 20 FPPG without the rushing Jones brings to the table. Prescott has two seasons above that threshold and four below. The four below were all below Jones’s actual FPPG last year of 18.6. With no Cooper and no Kellen Moore, I would be very surprised if Prescott gets back over that 20 FPPG threshold.

Weapons

Daniel Jones’s receiver target separation was ranked 54th among QBs who played a snap last year. That is in a word, “horrible”. The Giants made this a priority to address this offseason and Jones will now have five weapons at his disposal he didn’t have most of last year. 

The most impactful of these new weapons is Darren Waller. Waller is a massive upgrade at the tight end position over Daniel Bellinger. Waller is an athletic freak of nature and defensive matchup nightmare fuel. Waller’s size (6’6″ and 255 lbs.) and speed (4.4) are matched by only a few players in the NFL. He is in that D.K. Metcalf category of elite athleticism. 

Long underrated, Sterling Shepard returns from injury after only suiting up for three games last year. Shephard has had issues staying healthy but when he has played he has been a consistent separator, target magnet, and fantasy producer. Likewise, promising second-round 2022 pick Wan’Dale Robinson returns after only playing in six games before being injured. Robinson was an elite college producer who will make the offense more dynamic.

Isaiah Hodgins was a hidden gem last year. At just 24 the Giants have found a big-bodied wide receiver they were trying to get when they signed Kenny Golladay. Lastly, they drafted speed merchant Jalin Hyatt in round three of the NFL draft. Hyatt will help stretch defenses and open up underneath routes for Waller, Shepard, Robinson, Hodgins, and Jamison Crowder.

Meanwhile, Dak Prescott is going to be two years removed from having Amari Cooper. In his peak production years, Prescott had both Cooper and Cee Dee Lamb to deliver the ball too. The Cowboys did bring in Brandin Cooks who has been highly productive in the past. However, Cooks will be 30 this year and ceded targets to Nico Collins last season.

Pass Protection

Pressured throws are a good metric to look at to see how the quarterback’s offensive line protection was. Jones comes in at 90 pressured throws on 472 attempts (19%). 

Andrew Thomas is a foundational piece for the Giants offensive line but he can’t protect Daniel Jones by himself. The only significant draft capital the Giants used on the offensive line was a round two selection of center, John Michael Schmitz. There is no way around this one. The offensive line is a big W for Prescott. Dallas ranked 5th in protection rate for Prescott while the Giants ranked 25 for Daniel Jones. 

Rushing

Dynasty managers lust after Konami quarterbacks who can supplement their passing production with elite rushing numbers. Jones was fifth among all QBs in rushing yards last year behind only Dynasty first-round studs: Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson. The Twitter hive will universally tell you to expect major regression in Jones’s rushing numbers. 

While Jones did have his best rushing season by far last year I believe that this is a product of Daboll. After all, this is the same man who deployed Josh Allen as a supreme rushing weapon in Buffalo. While Jones may regress some in rushing he has considerable upside in his passing totals to more than offset it.

Contract

The Giants handed out a contract that made their team name proud in the form of a 4-year, $160M deal for Jones with $92M guaranteed. I believe in following the money in Dynasty. The Giants organization and Brian Daboll wouldn’t give Jones this kind of money unless they had the utmost confidence in him continuing to grow under Daboll’s tutelage.

Spotrac shows Prescott with an out in his contract after this year. If that happens it would be a huge dead cap hit though. Prescott’s near-term job security should not be a value-adjusting consideration.

The Verdict

For your author, it is pretty clear where the value lies between Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott relative to the average draft position. Even with the rest of the Dynasty world catching on and driving up Jones ADP almost a full round over the last few months he remains the superior value to Dak Prescott. If he merely repeats his fantasy performance from last year we should be looking at a top-2-round Dynasty pick.

Sources Player Profiler, Pro Football Reference, Spotrac

I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. Please consider our DFF annual membership. See all the benefits of the annual membership here. It truly is the best value in the Dynasty industry. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy.