Just wow. I can’t believe the most exciting running back in the NFL has just been traded to the team that consistently makes Day 3 and undrafted running backs look like Pro Bowlers. But, here we are:
A gaping hole left in the Panthers’ offense as McCaffrey received over 21 opportunities per game on a team that averaged only 53.8 plays per game! That means on roughly 40% of the offensive play calls, the ball was trying to be in McCaffrey’s hands. Can anyone fill his shoes? And on the other side of the country, what sort of fantasy magic will we see now that we have the perfect marriage of talent and scheme at the running back position? Let’s dive in!
Fantasy Wasteland: Destination Charlotte
Even with the dynamic Christian McCaffrey touching the ball on 40% of the offensive play calls, the Panthers were still last in the league in plays per game. Losing McCaffrey can only spell even more trouble for this team. It takes an exceptional talent to produce as a top-five fantasy running back on a team that’s constantly losing, scores only 17.2 points per game (27th), and is the only weapon that opposing defenses need to worry about. So now what? What remains in Carolina is a wasteland. This isn’t to say that D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard aren’t talented. However, there is no comparison to their predecessor.
Hubbard saw work last year while McCaffrey was hurt and averaged 13.9 carries for 51.4 yards and 0.5 touchdowns over a 10-game span. He supplemented that with 1.9 catches for 11 yards per game through the air. Hubbard was fantasy relevant as the only option in the backfield last year, but this year the Panthers brought in former Titans running back D’Onta Foreman to compete for the number two spot and Foreman has earned the edge early on. He has out-touched Hubbard 12-7 through the first six games of the season. Foreman saw time as the lead back with the Titans last year while Derrick Henry was injured. Over that nine-game span, Foreman averaged 62.9 rushing yards per game on 14.7 carries per game, along with one catch for 13.6 yards through the air.
Overall, there’s no clear front-runner or winner in this backfield. An offense running only 53.8 plays per game with a potentially split backfield spells trouble for fantasy. I believe we’ll see the Panthers mention “riding the hot hand” at some point making the situation an even bigger nightmare. At the end of the day, neither of these running backs has the talent to replicate what McCaffrey did with those touches, nor to command that many touches per game. I’ll bet on Foreman leading the way early on, but the ceiling is so low that if you can return even a late second-round pick for either of these running backs, you should hurry up and accept it before your opponent smartens up. One deep flier to sneak in is Laviska Shenault. The former second-round pick of the Jaguars was traded to the Panthers earlier this season. He was utilized in college similarly to how Deebo Samuel and Cordarrelle Patterson are currently used. He’s had the injury bug early in his career, but he’ll have the opportunity to shine if he can get healthy.
Fools Gold or The Real Deal?
The San Fransisco 49ers have turned Day 3 picks and undrafted running backs into fantasy gold with a different leading rusher in each of the past five seasons. Enter Christian McCaffrey. Talent meet the golden system. This is a very exciting time for McCaffrey managers as they get to see him in a system that’s built to get the best out of their running backs. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. McCaffrey was the Panthers’ identity. Now he moves to a system where he won’t need to see the ball on 40% of plays. The big question now becomes: will the increase in efficiency and touchdown opportunity make up for less usage? The answer is that it will on some days and won’t on others. McCaffrey won’t be getting 25+ touches per game and that’s a good thing. The 26-year-old running back missed 23 of 33 games over the 2020 and 2021 seasons.
The 49ers made this trade to maximize his impact on his team. Jeff Wilson wasn’t the full-time answer. Elijah Mitchell hasn’t shown the ability to stay healthy with a full workload either after missing six games last year and now finds himself on IR after a week-one injury. Shanahan will utilize McCaffrey as the lead back, there’s no question about that. However, the smart move for this team is to limit his touches, similarly to the way Austin Ekeler is being utilized. Even better, the 49ers don’t have to watch Sony Michel or Joshua Kelley trot out there when Ekeler is on the sideline for roughly 40% of the snaps. They’ll get to see Mitchell out there who was still able to rush for 1,000 yards despite missing those six games last year.
All of this is to say that this move will be much better for the 49ers as a team than it could be for fantasy purposes. McCaffrey will be a bit more volatile moving forward on fewer touches, but will hopefully stay healthy because of that and have an increased ceiling due to the offensive talent around him. Jeff Wilson did his best lead-back impression but is now relegated to short-term handcuff until Elijah Mitchell comes back. Elijah Mitchell has taken the biggest hit of all from a fantasy perspective. He was drafted to be a low-end RB2 in dynasty leagues this off-season and is now just a talented handcuff. The snap counts will be interesting to follow when he gets back on the field, but there’s no situation in which his stock doesn’t take a massive hit.
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