Rookie Roundup: Week 1

Hello DFF members, I am Chris, and I will be doing a rookie round-up series for the 2023 season. My primary space in fantasy centers around analytics, rookie models, and early career models, so I should be able to make beneficial content out of this. This will be released every two weeks, and I will keep you updated on how these rookies have been performing and how their values should be changing. Let’s dive right into the week one recap for the prominent rookies.

Zay Flowers – Goated

Zay had a great debut for the Ravens. Baltimore is notorious for slow-playing rookies early, but Zay jumped out of the gate with an 84% snap share. Not only did Zay play a ton, but he was getting spammed. He saw ten targets, caught nine for 78 yards, and had two carries. The next-highest player on the Ravens only had three targets. Zay already established himself as the WR1 in Baltimore, and he might be my rookie WR2 now. 

Puka Nacua – HE IS HIM

Puka Nacua was not a no-name player, but no one expected this week-one performance from a day-three pick at wide receiver. Puka saw 15 targets for a 39.5% target share, which is incredible. Nacua also played all over the field and ran a large variety of routes, showing that he is truly a capable WR. Puka must move up your ranks, but we must be cautious about a one-game sample size. For instance, Puka had negative fantasy points over expected in week one. This means that based on his targets and where they occurred, you would expect the average player to finish with more points. This is a red flag; we also have no idea what will happen when Cooper Kupp returns. And lastly, we have seen players perform well over longer stretches and still become nothing. Travis Fulgham had 13 targets in his second-ever NFL game and went on to have three more very good games immediately after. Then he fell off the face of the earth. I think buying Puka for a 2nd is a good process; I am just saying to be wary.

Jahmyr Gibbs – Encouraged, Hoping for More

I was so ready for Gibbs to come out of the gate with a 50/50 snap share to David Montgomery, see about 15 touches, and score 20+ fantasy points. That, sadly, did not happen. However, Gibbs looked explosive, confident, and capable, especially compared to Montgomery, who looked like a plodder and got blown up in pass protection several times. Gibbs only saw 27% of the snaps, but even Dan Campbell said he was just letting Jahmyr get his feet wet, and he will be unleashed soon. 

Sam LaPorta – Excited

Another player from the Lions that I am high on, Sam LaPorta, also looked good on Thursday, but he had a better showing. He opened the season third on the Lions in targets with a 14.3% target share. LaPorta was getting open and making catches, boasting a 100% catch rate in his team’s opener. I think LaPorta could do some great things as a rookie TE, and it would not surprise me to see him as the rookie TE1 at the end of the year.

Rashee Rice – Involved

Rashee Rice is another player who made his debut in the first NFL game of the season, and he had a solid day. The best part is that he tied for the team lead in targets and scored a touchdown, too. It was only a 13% target share, but it is early, and Mahomes likes to spread the ball around. I could see Rice either staying around 10-14% target share or developing a good rapport with the star QB and increasing that share further. Rice is tentatively holding for me, with optimism to move up if I see good things later.

C.J. Stroud – Competent

C.J. Stroud drew an awful debut matchup for his NFL career. Baltimore’s defense is not what it used to be, but even so, in recent years, they have been known to make a mockery of rookie QBs early in the season. Stroud was an exception here. There were no touchdowns, but also no interceptions and a 64% completion rate. It was not a good fantasy performance, but Stroud made some good throws, stayed calm, and did nothing that made you want to look away. I am excited to see him perform against an easier opponent. For now, he has not changed.

Tank Dell – Uninvolved

Tank Dell did not make a good first impression. He was largely uninvolved until the game’s later stages when it was clearly out of reach. He only played 48% of the snaps, which we want to see improve. I am not going to move rookies down after just one game, but we need to see better to not become worried.

Sean Tucker – No Standalone Value, but Encouraging Handcuff

Sean Tucker is a player that I think could push White for the starting job, but with only playing 15% of the snaps in week one, that reality does not seem close. Therefore, Tucker will not hold standalone value unless he proves otherwise. But, for now, he is the clear backup in Tampa Bay and profiles as a handcuff with three-down upside. We are holding and waiting for a White injury or, hopefully, a full takeover as he learns the NFL game and gets more chances.

Jordan Addison – Starts Hot

Jordan Addison starts his career off well with four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. We expected him to be the most ready to produce in week one, and he delivered. Addison stays firmly in the rookie WR2/3 conversation and genuinely looks like he could be a top 24 WR in fantasy this season. 

Tyjae Spears – Lots of Snaps, not a lot of Touches

Spears’s debut was intriguing. He led the team in RB snaps with 54% but only saw four touches to Henry’s 17. We expected Henry to dominate the touches, but the snaps being split this way was very interesting. Spears moved up for me as he showed he might have an early path to standalone value, but more importantly, if something were to happen to Henry, we just learned that Spears would be the workhorse.

Bryce Young – Not Great, Bob

C.J. Stroud played against a tough defense and kept it together. Young played against an average defense and threw two interceptions while barely completing 50% of his passes. Young was also at a putrid 3.8 yards per attempt and a QBR of 16.1. I am still not changing anything here based on one game, but Stroud vs. Young will be a situation to monitor heading into week two.

Jonathan Mingo – Solid

Mingo is a player that I am not a fan of, but I recognize he might get good volume in year one due to a lack of competition. That is already the case. Mingo secured five targets in his debut, second among WRs on the team. Nothing to change here; we just have to keep watching.

Bijan Robinson – Explosive, Great Receiving Work, Needs More Carries

When the Falcons drafted Bijan eighth overall, I was not expecting him to split work almost 50/50 with Tyler Allgeier. Bijan did lead the snaps 63% to 56%, but he had fewer touches and less goal-line work. Both backs managed to score over 20 fantasy points, but this was largely due to the RBs combining for over a 50% target share. This will not happen most weeks, and maybe not again this season. For Bijan to pay off at his price, he needs to see a larger gap in this split backfield.

Tank Bigsby – Pure Handcuff

Bigsby managed to steal a touchdown and, therefore, put together a mediocre fantasy day, but do not be fooled, this is Travis Etienne‘s backfield. Etienne played 80% of the snaps to Bigsby’s 21%, but the next closest RB played just one snap. So, it is clear that if Etienne were to miss time, Bigsby would step right in as the workhorse. I love this for him, and it is the most we could have hoped to start the year.

Anthony Richardson – Awesome Start

I was not expecting this start from Richardson and the Colts at all. I would have guessed he would be worked in slowly and maybe throw around 20-25 passes in his first game. Instead, we see Richardson sling it 37 times while completing 65% of his passes, adding 40 yards and a touchdown on the ground. If this is a sign of things to come, Richardson could soon be a top-eight dynasty QB, and we might want to buy high already. If I could trade someone like Justin Fields for Richardson and get anything on top, I would do it quickly. 

Josh Downs – Encouraged by A-Rich Start

I loved Downs’ profile, but I was worried about him being a slot option on a poor Anthony Richardson passing offense. Boy, am I glad to be wrong. Downs had the second-most targets on the team, with a 19% target share. But the more important part was seeing the team let Richardson throw and him perform well. Downs could turn into a solid flex player very quickly.

Michael Mayer – A Ghost, Especially Compared to LaPorta and Musgrave

Mayer has moved down for me. I was already not a huge fan of his around the draft cycle, and then we heard nothing about him all of camp. And now he comes out week one with zero receptions on 49% of the snaps. I think it is safe to call him my rookie TE4. He should remain in the tier with the other top rookies, but he will drop if they continue to grow and Mayer continues like this.

Marvin Mims – No Noise Here

Mims had a disappointing debut, but it is nothing to worry about. Week one can be challenging for rookie WRs, and it all depends on coaching sometimes. Payton might need to see that he can trust Mims on Sundays before deploying him more. This will be a wait-and-see, but no cause for concern yet.

Devon Achane – Healthy Scratch

This was puzzling to us fantasy gamers as we thought Achane would be the primary backup to Mostert, with Jeff Wilson placed on IR. I am unsure what happened here and am very interested to see if Achane plays in week two. But the last time this happened, Tyrion Davis-Price was a day two pick who ended up being a week one healthy scratch in favor of fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell, and we know how those careers played out. I am on high alert here; week two is very important. If we see Achane as a healthy scratch again or play very minimal snaps, it may be prudent to sell for what you can get.

Quentin Johnston – Uninvolved

This is similar to the Marvin Mims piece in that while the start was not optimal, I am not worried. Rookies do not need to bust on the scene in week one to be good. I am a big Johnston fan, and I am excited to see his role grow moving forward.

Kayshon Boutte – Lots of Routes

Boutte was surprisingly active in week one. He ran the second-most routes on the team and saw four targets in his debut. This is encouraging as Boutte had a solid profile but fell in the NFL Draft. With New England’s WR group being mostly mid with no studs, Boutte has the chance to carve out a role here. He is an early riser for me.

Jayden Reed / Luke Musgrave – Involved in Debut

I am putting these two together because they performed similarly and are in the same situation. Musgrave is in that rookie TE trio to have promising debuts, and I am excited to see where he can go. Reed was outshined by Doubs, but only slightly. We also must remember that Watson was absent, so we could see the WR work change drastically. But I do think Musgrave is here to stay regardless.

Roschon Johnson – Clear RB2, Great Receiving Work

I am very excited for Roschon after his debut. I was expecting Foreman to be the clear backup, but in week one, it was Roschon. Johnson paced the RBs in snaps, playing 39% to Herbert’s 36%, and even had 11 touches to Herbert’s 12. In addition, Johnson tied for the team lead in targets with a 19% share. These signs are all fantastic, and Johnson should be moving up everyone’s ranks. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Tied Team Lead in Targets

What a start for JSN. At first, we were unsure if he would play in week one, and now he is tying the team lead for targets. I am excited to see how he grows and think he could lead this team in targets, receptions, and yards throughout the season. He is a buy high for me as I think his value could grow to the top six or eight of dynasty WRs.

Zach Charbonnet – Clipboard Holder

Charbonnet was surprisingly uninvolved in his debut, only playing 24% of the snaps, while DeeJay Dallas played 22% himself. I expect Charbonnet’s workload to grow, as I was picturing more of a 60/40 split between Walker and him, but we may need to wait for that. If Charbonnet’s snaps don’t increase soon, he may be nothing more than a handcuff. This would be disappointing since people were drafting him to have some standalone value.

Deuce Vaughn – Uninvolved, Even in Blowout

I do not know how useful snap counts from the Dallas game will be, considering how much of a beatdown this was, and a lot of the production came from the defense. So, I am mostly throwing this game out the window until I see what happens in week two. 

Dalton Kincaid – Hard to Tell

Kincaid had a solid opening, but it is hard to discern where he lies in the pecking order. He was tied with three other players at four targets for the third most on the team, including fellow TE Dawson Knox. Hopefully, week two will provide more clarity on the situation.

That about covers every relevant rookie. In general, week one should not affect your views on these players too much, but strong positive or negative instances should make an impact. Remember, dynasty is a long game, and we have studied hard on these rookies over the offseason. We had college production, film, NFL Combine, NFL Draft, and training camp to gather information on these rookies. That large sample should vastly outweigh one NFL game sample. Remember this, and you will be just fine. I will see you next time on the Rookie-Roundup. 

Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017. Shoot me a DM; they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy, where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!

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