As Jacob Rickrode (@ClutchFantasy) has shown, year after year the same Wide Receivers finish in the top 24 in PPR scoring. Largely, they do at least. I promise to stop stealing Jacob’s hard work shortly. But he’s also shown that on average there are 3 receivers that fall out of the top 24 every season. In 2015 that number spiked to 7.
With that in mind, fatalist that I am, I decided to determine who exactly from last seasons top 24 scorers will not repeat the feat in 2017. One item of note. Because this is based on total scoring and not based on per game scoring, A.J. Green finished outside of the top 24 last season.
Because I am very creative, I came up with some amazing designations for last years top 24 and if they’ll finish in the top 24 this season. (Please don’t try this at home I am a professional)
- Locks to Repeat
- Likely Safe
- The Patriot Way
- Last in
- Outside of the Top 24
We’ve already discussed my “Locks” and “Likely Safe” group of wide receivers. We also covered the New England receivers and the last group of receivers that will repeat as top 24 wide receivers. Now we begin the sad task of naming the receivers that will not be able to make it two seasons in a row with top 24 finishes.
Finishes Outside of Top 24 in 2017
I doubt it comes as much of surprise that the first receiver I predict won’t repeat his top 24 status is Rishard Matthews. Tennesee ranked 28th in the NFL with 504 pass attempts in 2016. Matthews led the team in targets with 108. In a low volume pass offense, 108 targets is a respectable number. Finishing as the 30th most targeted WR is nothing to hang your head over.
When looking at scoring provided by fftoday.com we see that out of the top 24 scorers though this 108 represents the 2nd lowest amount of targets, which already makes Matthews hold on a top 24 spot tenuous at best. Matthews fantasy scoring was propped up by 9 touchdowns which were 6th most for wide receivers last year.
As if being in an offense that is a primarily a run first one wasn’t enough of a concern for Matthews fantasy fortunes the Titans went absolute HAM adding new receiving options this off-season. As an aside, do the kids still say HAM? If not can someone dm me and let me know what the hip term is now? In the draft, the Titans added Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor to their receiving corp. For good measure, they also selected TE Jonnu Smith. So now Matthews must contend with a new #1 WR on his team, a new slot option and a TE. Not optimal, but he maybe could almost overcome all of that. As if almost sensing that fantasy owners still held out hope for Matthews the Titans decided they also needed to add Eric Decker to the roster.
Just to recap. The Titans drafted a WR with the 5th overall pick in the NFL Draft. A wide receiver who posted a 51.6% college dominator rating. In the third round, the Titans went ahead and drafted another receiver, one who put up a 38.6% college dominator rating. And as the final nail in Matthews coffin, they added Eric Decker. Eric Decker, who in his last full season in 2015, was 5th in the league with 132 targets and added 12 touchdowns. I like Matthews as a player, I really do. I just don’t see the Titans increasing their passing attempts for him maintain last year’s scoring. Game, set, match. Good bye Rishard you will not be a top 24 fantasy scorer at the wide receiver position in 2017.
Thanks for reading and go ahead and give me a follow if you don’t already do so @DFF_Shane. See you tomorrow when we discuss the next wide receiver on my list who will not be a top 24 wide receiver in 2017.