My latest article was a quick reaction to the DeAndre Hopkins trade to the Arizona Cardinals. It mainly focused on the immediate fantasy impact for Hopkins and Arizona’s quarterback Kyler Murray. This followup piece serves to address how each receiving corps is impacted by the transaction.
The article is titled “Receiving Corps vs Receiving Corpse” because one of these teams just became a ghost town in the receiver department and the other injected a considerable amount of life into theirs.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are currently offseason champions after finalizing the Hopkins acquisition, but how does this impact Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald’s dynasty value? Are they winners or losers?
The short answer is that they’re losers, but let’s break it down and make sense of it all.
The Cardinals attempted 544 passes last year with the majority going to Kirk (108) and Fitzgerald (109). The remaining targets were distributed to guys like KeeSean Johnson, Damiere Byrd, David Johnson, and Kenyan Drake. Based on his history, Hopkins is likely to command 150+ targets, so he’d eat into Kirk and Fitzgerald’s workloads even if you took away all the targets from the role players. So, something’s gotta give.
It’s safe to assume 36-year-old Fitzgerald will see a downtick in his targets in 2020 as they shift over to Hopkins. That’s the natural move for aging pass catchers: become a possession receiver and spend most of the time in the slot. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a significant drop in targets. He could see as few as 50 which would crush any fantasy value he has left. He finished as WR33 last year, so a decrease in targets would make him virtually irrelevant.
Kirk’s value shouldn’t take too much of a hit if any at all. He saw 108 targets and started just 13 games. If anything, Hopkins will draw attention away from him providing even more opportunities to produce. He’ll likely see an increase in targets. It should be mentioned that Hopkins and Kirk play different roles. Kirk ran 92 routes from the slot while Hopkins ran 132 routes from the slot in 2019. Kirk is more of a deep threat and plays the more traditional outside receiver. While Hopkins can do that, he tends to be more versatile. I expect improvement from Kirk in 2020, especially with the team honing in their passing attack.
Role Players
Hopkins is going to demand at least 25% of the team’s target share. The Cardinals offense wasn’t great last year. Therefore, we should see an increase in pass attempts. Even so, guys like KeeSean Johnson, Andy Isabella, and Damiere Byrd are going to take the biggest hits in their development because there aren’t enough targets to go around.
Arizona is looking like a fantasy powerhouse. I think you can safely rely on Hopkins and Kirk for some serious fantasy value, but Fitzgerald and the rest of the pass-catchers are going to see a sharp dip in fantasy production
Houston Texans
While the Cardinals are the offseason winners, the Texans are surely the losers. They’ve made some awful deals over the last year. First, they traded a third-round pick for Duke Johnson and barely used him. Then they trade two, that’s right, two first-round picks for Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills. They gave up Jadeveon Clowny for a third and a couple of linebackers and finished it off with this doozy.
Deshaun Watson must be looking around like “where the heck did everybody go?” And that’s a fair question, right? His top wide receivers now include Will Fuller, Keke Coutee, and Kenny Stills. Yikes…
Fuller is impressive any time he’s on the field, which is not often. He’s never played a full season and missed 14 games over the last two years. He simply hasn’t stayed healthy. Fuller has dealt with all kinds of injuries from a torn ACL to multiple torn hamstrings. He has suffered several soft tissue injuries that are notorious for recurrence and keeping players sidelined.
None of this is ideal for a number one wide receiver, but a healthy Fuller is due to see a massive increase in targets. Hopkins’ departure leaves 150+ targets up for grabs, and Fuller is likely the preferred recipient as of now. Fuller is one of the best downfield threats in the league when healthy, averaging 14.3 yards per reception over his career. However, he has only received over 50 targets in two of his four seasons. I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees 100+ targets if everything remains the same in 2020, and that means he could easily be a top 20 fantasy receiver. I would keep Fuller on your radar but be wary of trading valuable assets for him due to his voluminous injury history.
Stills quietly put together a solid season in 2019. He finished with 40 receptions on 55 targets for 561 yards and four touchdowns. Stills maintained the third-highest catch rate in the league last year. He did all this as the WR3 for Houston However, he is now instantly vaulted into the WR2 spot and is in line for a significant increase in targets. Stills averaged just 4.2 targets per game last year, a number that should increase. He finished as the WR56 last year but has WR2/WR3 upside if things stay the same.
Each and every Houston receiver who had any success got a boost in fantasy value with Hopkins’ departure, but we have to be concerned about Coutee’s tenure on the team. He’s shown promise when on the field but been sidelined by three separate hamstring injuries. At some point, someone needs to investigate what the Houston medical staff has against hamstrings.
Either way, Coutee can’t stay on the field. Many of us in the community had hoped he could become a premier slot receiver in the NFL. However, he may not get the chance considering the Texans signed Randall Cobb to a three-year deal just the other day.
Remember, the situation in Houston is fluid. They could easily sign some free agents or draft a big-name rookie in an effort to replace Hopkins. That said, if the circumstances don’t change, there is plenty of fantasy opportunity available for the receivers on this team.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF
