Rapid Reaction: Kirk Cousins to the Falcons

As you’ve probably heard, Kirk Cousins signed a 4-year contract totaling $180M with the Atlanta Falcons today. Since it is the largest contract in this year’s free agency period, it is vital to look into the contract and see how this affects dynasty managers in the future and how to project future seasons for both the Falcons and Vikings. 

Contract Breakdown 

This contract includes four years, $180M, with $100M guaranteed. Over the next two seasons, Cousins will make $90M in guarantees plus $10M in 2026. It is important to remember that the Falcons structured this contract to allow them to pay Cousins most of the guaranteed $100M over the next two seasons and have a cheaper dead cap if they needed to cut him at that time. 

Dynasty Impact for Atlanta

Kirk Cousins

The only realistic quarterback situation in the NFL that was better than Minnesota’s. Leaving one of the most talented receiving casts across the league doesn’t bode well for any quarterback, but Cousins might have struck long-term gold with this young skill position group. Currently valued at QB23 on KTC, Kirk is the exemplary buy-now quarterback for competing teams looking for depth at their QB2 or QB3 spot. 

Kyle Pitts

Considering his prospect profile, Pitts is already heading into his fourth season and has had frustrating production thus far. With a proven veteran quarterback who historically targets his TEs, this should be Pitts’ time to shine. Currently valued as TE7 on KTC, I expect this rank to rise as the offseason goes on. If you want to sell on Kyle Pitts, this summer is the time. If you believe in Pitts and want to hold through the 2024 season, realize the risk you are taking as 2025 is his fifth-year option primarily based on this next season’s performance. 

Drake London

London has had electrifying moments in his NFL career. Still, it’s been tough to string these performances together, and the predictability of production is a highly underrated aspect of fantasy football. Since Cousins isn’t a mobile QB and will look to throw the ball before running nine times out of ten, this increases London’s production floor and dramatically improves his ceiling. Currently valued as WR15 on KTC, I wouldn’t be surprised if London sneaks into the top 12 dynasty WRs before the start of the 2024 season. You should wait until after the draft to buy London, as there is now a higher chance for the Falcons to take another high-level WR prospect with their 8th pick in the draft. Especially now that they have locked in their QB position for the next several years. 

Bijan Robinson

I’m still determining how much more excitement there can be about Bijan since he is already the RB1 on KTC. Still, this move could inject even more hype into dynasty managers. You must pay attention in fantasy when an uber-talented RB is the lead guy for a projected top-10 NFL offense. Arthur Smith is out of town, and now defenses must respect the play-action that Kirk Cousins thrives on. 

Dynasty Impact for Minnesota

Justin Jefferson

During Super Bowl week, JJettas expressed his appreciation and enjoyment of playing with Kirk Cousins on The Rich Eisen Show. After four seasons, Jefferson has inserted himself into the conversation of one of the best starts of an NFL career in history. Losing an accurate quarterback is never a good omen for any pass catcher. If any WR can overcome this, though, it would be Jefferson. I am still not selling Jefferson in Dynasty for nothing short of a team-altering offer. 

Ty Chandler/Impending FA Signing and/or Draft Pick

I realize this is not the same scheme that saw Dalvin Cook consistently go well over 1,000 rush yards in his prime years. Still, RB Ty Chandler’s impressive end to the season despite the quarterback carousel after Cousins’ Achilles injury was impressive. With the higher possibility of a rookie quarterback and/or a much lesser quarterback than Kirk taking the helm, I will have little expectation for this backfield for fantasy purposes. The Vikings also have many chances to improve this backfield over the rest of Free Agency and through the NFL draft. I’d be selling any Ty Chandler shares for the likes of many other RBs in the same tier on KTC (Raheem Mostert, Devin Singletary, and Antonio Gibson, to name a few).

Jordan Addison

The rookie from USC had a hot start to 2023 with Kirk at QB, and it’s fun to wonder how good his season could’ve been with an entire season of healthy Kirk Cousins. While he is not the receiver that Jefferson is, Addison is not a guy you want to underestimate. Still being the #2 target in a pass-heavy Kevin O’Connell offense is an exciting proposition. Consistency and ceiling could come down for Addison with a new QB, but I still love the talent. Addison is accurately priced, currently at WR19 on KTC, but keep an eye on this price as the offseason goes along. If there’s a dip in price as the offseason proceeds, I will be a cautious buyer of this young cornerstone wide receiver for my rebuilding dynasty leagues. 

T.J. Hockenson

Hockenson is the biggest loser in this situation. With TE already so difficult to predict volume for, that was the main thing going for the Kirk-Hockenson connection. Not to mention, T.J. has already been battling an ACL and MCL tear since week 16 of the NFL season, which could very well have him on the PUP list to start the season anyway. Now that Hockenson will be returning to a QB not named Kirk Cousins, it will be tough to replicate anything close to his past 25 games of production since being traded to Minnesota. 

Conclusion

This is a situation to continue monitoring for both teams as we go through the NFL draft and training camp. Today’s rankings might not prove advantageous for buying or selling any of these players in March. However, as we gain more context around the quarterback position in Minnesota, keep an eye on how the dynasty community reacts. There’s no way to tell how this free-agency blockbuster could change the fantasy landscape for all the players we discussed today. 

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