Greetings, #DFFArmy, and welcome to this week’s edition of Starts and Sits for Dynasty Football Factory. My name’s Matthew Ward, or as many of you know me from social media, Psych Ward. Every week, we list our top starts and sits with the keys to success for each player. I want to add: I will personally be favoring and fading these players in my own matchups. Now, with the introduction formalities out of the way, let’s dive into the players I believe will make or break your fantasy lineups in Week 4.

QUARTERBACKS

Start – Russell Wilson (DEN)

When Russell Wilson said, “Broncos Country, Let’s Ride,” no one expected that ride to start with a head-first face plant into the cold hard ground of the mile-high city. The team has struggled out the gate, causing managers to panic and sell on the once elite quarterback. I am much more lenient with Wilson as my starter in Week 4, considering the upcoming matchup against a swiss-cheese defensive secondary. The Raiders’ defense conceded 22.7 PPG to opposing quarterbacks, ranked sixth worst in 2022. They have allowed 53.0% over the projected average of fantasy points in 2022, with 17.0 passing PPG and 5.7 rushing PPG to rival quarterbacks. Wilson has done nothing to instill confidence in fantasy managers this season but is in a perfect position for a bounceback performance against AFC West rivals.

Sit – Mitchell Trubisky (PIT)

Mitchell Trubisky is averaging a mediocre 189.6 yards per game, completing 60.2% of his pass attempts with only two touchdowns in three games. His once respected rushing ability has disappeared, with the former first-round quarterback taking six carries for 23 yards on the season. The Jets are no easy matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing 231.0 passing yards per game (16th). The Jets’ defense is relinquishing a mere 19.6 PPG to opposing quarterbacks this season. Superflex managers can’t wait for the Steelers to switch from Trubisky to 2022 first-round rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, but it appears unlikely to happen anytime soon. In the meantime, managers that stream the quarterback position can find much better options elsewhere than the putrid low-end production of the dumpster fire that embodies Trubisky’s career.

RUNNING BACKS

Start – James Robinson (JAX)

Rain, sleet, snow, or shine, you are starting James Robinson in every lineup until further notice. The Jaguars’ lead running back returned to his facemask-smashing form in 2022 despite a severe injury last season that many would have deemed a career killer. Robinson is averaging 18.8 PPG (RB3) yet enters Week 4 with an ECR projection of 10.8 fantasy points, ranked RB22. Robinson has scored a touchdown in all three of his starts this season, averaging 56.9% of the offensive snaps and 66.3% of the rushing opportunities as the clear number one head of Travis Etienne. The Jaguars matchup against the Eagles in Week 4 with the over/under scoring total set at 45.0 with the Eagles as 6.0 point favorites in what predicts to be a low-scoring slow burn. The Eagles’ defense has looked impenetrable thus far, allowing just 325.7 scrimmage yards per game (9th). However, their pass defense is much stronger than their rush defense, conceding 110.0 rushing yards per game (17th) to opposing offenses. The Eagles allow 16.3 PPG to running backs based on rushing production alone. Robinson’s projection ranking outside the top-20 running backs in Week 4 is blasphemous and ignorant of the third-year running back’s stellar start to the 2022 season.

Start – Breece Hall (NYJ)

The Jets backfield has operated as a committee through the first three games of 2022, with Michael Carter accounting for 56.5% of the offensive snaps, a 10.3% target share, and 57.1% of the team’s rushing opportunities. Breece Hall’s three-game opportunity share ranks behind Carter in snap percentage (41.8%) and rushing share (42.9%), although the rookie leads the duo in target share (13.5%). However, Week 3 marked the first game of a new trend for the running back tandem. Hall out-snapped Carter 40 to 38, earning 11 targets to Carter’s two. An increase to Hall’s volume moving forward could present league-winning upside for the rookie as he currently averages 12.8 PPG (RB18) while locked in a timeshare. The upcoming matchup looks worse on paper than the numbers indicate. The Steelers concede 23.1 PPG to opposing running backs, equating to 7.9% over the expected average to the position. Week 4 is as good a place to start as any to start Hall in your lineups, especially against the banged-up Steelers’ defense. 

Sit – AJ Dillon (GB)

AJ Dillon faces a difficult matchup in the Packers’ upcoming contest as his team plays host to the Patriots in Week 4 in an inter-conference matchup. Dillon remains locked in a timeshare with star running back Aaron Jones, minimizing his ceiling as a workhorse in the Packers offense. Dillon will face an uphill battle against one of the league’s top rush defenses and does not receive the volume necessary to mask any inefficiencies. The Patriots’ defense is allowing a mere 12.2 PPG to opposing backfields. They allow 5.9 PPG of receiving production and 6.3 PPG via rushing yards to running backs this season. Dillon would need to command 100.0% of the backfield touches in order to provide a high-end RB2 ceiling in your lineups this week.

Sit – Miles Sanders (PHI)

The undefeated 3-0 Eagles face off against an unsuspecting 2-1 Jaguars team that just knocked off the Colts and the Chargers in back-to-back weeks. A big reason for the Jaguars’ early-season success is their new-and-improved defensive unit. The Jaguars rank in the top-10 for the least points allowed to every offensive position. Their defense is holding running backs to 27.4% below their expected average of allotted fantasy points. Sanders enters Week 4 averaging 11.8 PPG. A 27.4% decrease to Sanders’ middling average would equate to 8.6 fantasy points based on his matchup. The Eagles’ lead running back is a low-end RB2 and desperation flex play at best in Week 4.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Start – JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC)

JuJu Smith-Schuster was primed for a career resurgence after signing with a Chiefs offense in desperate need of a new WR1 after the departure of Tyreek Hill. Unfortunately, the 2022 season has been a tale of two JuJu. The former Steelers wideout opened up the season by leading the Chiefs wide receivers in receptions (6), targets (8), routes (32), and receiving yards (79). Still, it remained behind Travis Kelce in all categories for team leader. In Week 2, JuJu would fall astray, catching three passes for ten yards as the least productive member of the offense. Then, in Week 3, the fifth-year wideout led every member of the offense, Kelce included, with five receptions on eight targets for 89 yards in a loss to the Colts. The statistical sample size is still too small to decipher, but it appears that Week 2 was an outlier of opportunities for the number one wideout on the offense. If JuJu can maintain his volume share from Weeks 1 and 3, he will be a must-start player against the Buccaneers. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are entering Week 4 fresh off difficult losses with their sights set on a repeat matchup of their Super Bowl showdown. Fantasy managers can expect a high-scoring affair that favors the Buccaneers at home with Mahomes and company keeping pace. Although the Buccaneers’ defense has looked strong to begin the season, there is no other quarterback in the league I would instill more confidence to match scores than Mahomes. The Buccaneers are conceding 26.9 PPG to opposing receivers this season, opening up the gateways for JuJu to have a decent performance.

Start – Tyler Lockett (SEA)

Ironically, consistent and Tyler Lockett are not two words you usually hear in the same sentence, as the veteran wideout has made an infamous name for himself off his propensity for blow-up games. That said, Lockett is the only player on the Seahawks roster you can consistently trust in your starting lineups, regardless of position. Locket enters Week 4 with a 26.0% target share through three games, ranked WR20. He has levied those targets into 14.2 PPG with back-to-back contests of 11 targets and nine receptions. In Week 2, Lockett erupted 107 yards in his patented big-play role. He encouragingly followed that up with an equal opportunity and reception line (9 REC/11 TGT/76 YDS) but in a much different role as the short-yard security blanket. Lockett’s skills as an elite separator are translating into a WR1 opportunity share as Geno Smith hyper-targets the veteran option. Lockett and the Seahawks face the Lions in Week 4, who have conceded 23.6 PPG to opposing quarterbacks and 33.7 PPG to wide receivers. Superstar cornerback Jeff Okudah will shadow DK Metcalf, leaving Lockett to draw single coverage against the Lions’ young and developing secondary. The Lions have allowed 11 receptions for 143 yards and two touchdowns from the slot position over the past two games. Lockett runs 42% of his routes from the slot, catching 12 passes for 113 yards this season. The Seahawks’ speedy veteran is a mid-range WR2 in Week 4 with a big-play upside.

Sit – Chase Claypool (PIT)

Chase Claypool correlates with my season-long fade of Mitchell Trubisky and his slow demise within the offensive scheme amidst the rise of rookie sensation George Pickens. Claypool yielded snaps and targets to his rookie counterpart for the first time of the 2022 season in Week 3, marking the only game in which Claypool has not led the charge in snap percentage. Pickens earned seven targets for a 21.9% share on 76.0% of the offensive snaps, including one of the greatest one-handed acrobatic catches you will ever see in the history of the NFL.

Claypool is quickly becoming a tertiary option. The Steelers’ offense funnels opportunities through Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris. An increased volume share for Pickens on an already low output passing offense spells awful news for Claypool in Week 4 and beyond.

Sit – Allen Robinson (LAR)

The Rams matchup against NFC West division rivals the 49ers in Week 4 after a rough offensive outing against the Cardinals in Week 3. Allen Robinson has looked like a husk of his former target-hogging self. Robinson is earning a lowly 11.9% target share through the first three contents, ranked 79th amongst wide receivers. He has just seven receptions for 88 yards through three contests, falling behind Tyler Higbee and relative unknown Ben Skowronek in targets and production. Robinson is on the last legs of his career and appears to be running out of gas even in the season’s early stages.

TIGHT ENDS

Start – David Njoku (CLE)

David Njoku enters Week 4 fresh off the heels of a monstrous showing against the Steelers in Week 3. The uber-athletic Browns tight end caught nine of ten targets for 89 yards and one touchdown, finishing with 23.9 PPR points (TE2). Njoku ranks second on the team in target share (18.2%/TE7) behind only Amari Cooper while playing 91.2% of the offensive snaps (TE4). 37 of his offensive snaps have come from the slot this season, driving home the fact that Njoku is not only the Browns’ starting tight end but number two wide receiver as well. The former first-round tight end draws a scintillating matchup against the swiss cheese secondary unit housed by the Falcons. The Falcons are giving up 12.3 PPG to tight ends (24th) and 38.7 PPG to wide receivers (29th). The Browns are 1.5-point favorites in a game with a surprising over/under total set at 47.5, reflecting both teams’ inability to stop offenses from scoring. Njoku should continue to see his fair share of targets as one of two reliable pass-catchers on the Browns’ offense.

Sit – Dallas Goedert (PHI)

As mentioned above, the Jaguars’ defense is giving opposing offenses fits to begin the 2022 season. The addition of reigning tackle champ Foyesade Oluokun along with rookies Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd flipped this defensive unit into an imposing force seemingly overnight. The Jaguars concede just 5.4 PPG to the tight end position, 42.5% below the expected average. Goedert’s career target totals are way down in comparison to years prior. The arrival of A.J Brown and the ascent of second-year wideout Devonta Smith has capped Goedert’s volume and receiving upside, with the Eagles’ tight end averaging a 14.9% target share this season. Goedert is the fourth option in the pecking order behind Brown, Smith, and Sanders for opportunities while facing one of the league’s toughest matchups for tight ends. Do not be surprised to see Goedert fall well below his projection totals in Week 4.

Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

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