The 2024 rookie draft class is one of the most hyped and talent-stacked rookie classes we’ve seen in a long time. While each year it feels like we in the dynasty community run the same cycle of getting unnecessarily hyped up over a rookie class, so far this season it appears that the 2024 class will exceed even the lofty expectations placed on them this summer.
With this injection of elite, bluechip young talent, also comes an inevitable market move in dynasty. This summer, I wrote a piece discussing the high-end QB market, and referenced an elite “30 under 30” in dynasty, which is really just a cute name for tier of assets that combine youth, elite talent, and elite situations. These are all assets I’d move almost anything to acquire and would hold at almost all costs.
Today, I want to examine the new-look “30 under 30”, which I’m now going to broadly rename the “Whatever it takes” tier. This tier has been shaken up significantly, so I’ll do my best to highlight how I believe the market has moved with just 3 weeks of new input.
In the spirit of missing startup season, we’ll go round by round and take a look at what a rough 2-3 rounds of startup ADP would look like for me if I was drafting a league today.
Round 1
- Josh Allen
- Justin Jefferson
- Lamar Jackson
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Malik Nabers
- CeeDee Lamb
- Patrick Mahomes
- C.J. Stroud
- Kyler Murray
- Anthony Richardson
- Jalen Hurts
- Brock Bowers
No, your eyes do not deceive you- I’ve gone from 6 quarterbacks in the first 6 picks to just two. It’s become abundantly clear so far this season that NFL defenses are ready to rise to the challenge presented by next-generation NFL offenses. While offenses have been exploding over the last half-decade, that trend has come to an abrupt and sudden halt due to the prominence of 2-high shell coverages dominating defensive schemes more any other type of coverage.
This has led to an increase in the importance of establishing the run for offenses, and has thus led to a decrease in overall passing volume. The players who then suffer the most from this are quarterbacks, especially pocket passers, who are throwing for less yards and touchdowns this season than any year in recent memory. Thus, the drop in ranks for Mahomes, Stroud, and even Anthony Richardson and Jalen Hurts (who were top 6 picks for me preseason). To sum it up in one sentence, there’s no longer enough passing volume for even the most elite pocket passers to throw enough yards or touchdowns to provide a truly significant positional advantage.
Contrarily, the relative scarcity of pass attempts then drives the separation even further between elite WRs and, well, everyone else. Someone much smarter than me said recently that the answer to winning your fantasy leagues is simply going to be “roster Justin Jefferson”, and while that’s certainly hyperbolic and a little bit tongue-in-cheek, it’s also true in a lot of ways.
Between Jefferson, Chase, Lamb, and Nabers, we now have 4 truly elite bluechip WRs who I feel confident in providing a positional advantage week in and week out at the deepest position in fantasy. If you aren’t rostering one of these guys, and you match up against someone who does, it’s almost certainly going to provide you with significant ground to make up in terms of points, not to mention the possibility that their explosive single-game upside can even win your opponent the matchup by singlehandedly. Not only have these guys proven to be elite producers, but they’ve all proven to be able to get the job done regardless of who is throwing the ball. These 4 guys are arguably now the single biggest advantage you can have over your opponent heading into a matchup, which for me has pushed them over the tier of elite pocket passers whose production has now become relatively more replaceable.
The last player I want to highlight here, sneaking in to round 1 of dynasty ADP in TEP formats, is none other than the new dynasty TE1 himself, Brock Bowers. After a historical opening 2 games to start the season, Bowers seemingly came back down to earth with a 3 catch, 41 yard performance against Carolina’s lackluster defense. But it doesn’t take a football genius to tell you that the lack of production from Bowers’ last performance is much more an indictment on the Raiders’ offense than Bowers as an individual player or even as a dynasty asset. There will certainly be weeks where Bowers’ numbers don’t seem gaudy enough to support a ranking as high as mine.
However, what can’t be forgotten is just how strong the positional scarcity at tight end is right now. While I do maintain that the big 4 WRs still provide the most consistent and significant positional advantage, their position group is still extremely deep, which can’t be said even a little bit for tight ends. Bowers’ potential to provide you with a 10-catch 100-yard performance in any given week is frankly just an insane play out of your tight end spot, and it’s even scarier that he’s doing this all as a little 21-year old baby. Who knows how much better Bowers could get over his next few years in the league, and who knows how long he could dominate the dynasty landscape as the unquestioned TE1.
Overall, the most significant change to the first round of startup ADP is easily the dominance that the elitemost receivers have value-wise. It’s still a huge advantage to roster elite quarterbacks as well, but as I highlighted above, the relative positional advantage has become far too significant in favor of the elite receivers, mostly just due to the way offenses (and defenses) are playing right now. Every asset in this tier is insane and obviously not bad to roster, but this shift is certainly something to take note of, and perhaps even something for you to take advantage of in your leagues.
Round 2
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Joe Burrow
- Jordan Love
- Bijan Robinson
- Breece Hall
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Rashee Rice
- Jayden Daniels
- De’Von Achane
- Justin Herbert
- Caleb Williams
I’ll start this tier by answering the obvious question on everyone’s mind- what’s keeping Marvin Harrison Jr. at WR5 and outside of the 1st round of startup ADP?
The truth is, he’s caught in the middle between my 1st and 2nd tier of receivers. I don’t yet have enough conviction to put him over some of the Konami monster QBs in the late 1st, however I do feel confident that he belongs above the elite pure pocket passers (Love and Burrow) and above the big 4 running backs. The same can’t be said about Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, and Nico Collins, who would comprise the 2nd tier of WRs.
I simply think Marvin has another level of upside to break into the top 6 picks of startup ADP if he continues to progress over the course of this season. He also has the potential to develop insane chemistry with Kyler Murray, who is still only 27 and looking like a potential MVP-caliber signal caller. This sets him apart from tier 2 for me, but still out of tier 1 as I simply believe that group to be comprised of 4 of the top 5 receivers in the game right now, and I just don’t think MHJ is on their level talent-wise yet. But, he certainly could be there soon.
Joe Burrow and Jordan Love are amazing values here. Both have shown an ability to produce top 5 numbers over an entire season, however they are getting bumped down slightly compared to my offseason rankings due to the aforementioned gravitation towards 2-high and how that has impacted passing volume. Additionally, those two have comfortably separated themselves from Justin Herbert, who I think is equally talented and capable of monster production, but simply lacks the surrounding infrastructure to produce at a truly difference-making level in fantasy.
I discussed the big four running backs in last week’s installment of this series, where I went over the whole landscape of the RB market.
My favorite additions to this tier have to be Rashee Rice and De’Von Achane. These are two players who I didn’t totally hit on in my prospect evaluations, but I loved by the end of last season and vowed to increase my exposures this summer. That’s paid off in a big way so far in 2024, as they’re some of the biggest value risers at their positions, with them both now arriving at 2nd round startup value in not only my rankings but also in many consensus rankings.
And lastly, a brief mention to the top 2 rookie QBs, who will likely maintain their value all season long regardless of their performance. Daniels has certainly gotten off to the better start, and I’m willing to move him above Caleb in my rankings purely on rushing upside alone. However, I’d caution managers on quitting on Caleb as soon as some people have, as he’s still flashed signs of being the player we know he can be despite his situation not being as comfortable as many expected.
In my opinion, this tier has seen the biggest influx of talent relative to how I felt about the group last year. I feel like there is now an overwhelming amount of extremely talented young players in fantastic situations to produce monster fantasy numbers, like a Rice or an Achane, and I’m happy to have high exposure to many of the players in this tier.
Round 3
- Nico Collins
- Dak Prescott
- Garrett Wilson
- Saquon Barkley
- AJ Brown
- Jonathon Taylor
- Puka Nacua
- Trevor Lawrence
- Rome Odunze
- Drake Maye
- Chris Olave
- JJ McCarthy
I consider Nico kind of exempt from this group, similarly to Marvin being in Round 2. Once you get past Nico here, it’s kind of clear how this round is defined. We’re still trying to check the same boxes as before; youth, elite talent, and elite situations are always my primary measures of fantasy value. Here, we’ve now dropped from all three boxes being checked to more like two-and-a-half. Let’s go rapid fire and summarize each of these players’ fantasy stock to wrap up our top 3-round analysis.
Dak is an elite passer (check), who has produced top end QB fantasy seasons year in and year out (check). He’s 31, which kind of stinks, but not really that much (check ish).
Garrett Wilson is super young (check), looks just as elite as almost any receiver in the league (check), combining elite athleticism and route running with elite body control and catching abilities. Him and Aaron Rodgers look like they hate eachother half the time (check ish).
Saquon Barkley is the best running back in the league (check) running behind one of the best offensive lines (check). He’s 27, which kind of stinks, but honestly not that much (check ish).
A.J. Brown is an elite WR1 (check), and has excellent chemistry with Jalen Hurts (check). He’s 27, which doesn’t really stink, but he has struggled to stay consistently healthy in his time in Philly (mostly check).
Jonathan Taylor is one of the best backs in the league (check), in a perfect scheme fit running behind a great line and getting assistance from Anthony Richardson in the gap game (check). He’s 25, which doesn’t really stink, but he’s struggled to stay consistently healthy ever since his breakout season (mostly check).
Puka Nacua just put up the greatest rookie (check) WR season ever (check), is coached by Sean McVay and thrown to by Matthew Stafford (for now) (check ish), but has to compete with Cooper Kupp for touches (mostly check).
Trevor Lawrence was a generational prospect (check), and is young (check), but the Jaguars stink (no check).
Rome Odunze earned top 10 draft capital as a receiver (check), and is young (check), but the Bears stink right now (no check).
Drake Maye was an elite college prospect in my evaluation (check), and is young (check), but isn’t starting and the Patriots stink right now (no check).
Chris Olave is young (check), now has an elite playcaller (check), but his QB kind of stinks sometimes (check ish) and Olave hasn’t quite proven to produce at a top 12 level consistently despite being a widely acknowledged very good receiver (mostly check).
JJ McCarthy is young (check), has looked good in every opportunity he’s gotten since last fall (check), but is hurt and not coming back anytime soon (no check).
As you can see, a lot of really, really good stuff in this tier, paired with some minor nitpicks as well as some not-so-minor nitpicks. But regardless, still a deep group of mostly elite, mostly young, and mostly well-built surrounding infrastructures. A lot of these assets in my opinion should be worth around 2 base firsts of value, but can probably be had for closer to 1. I’m always looking to tier up to this asset level when possible, as there’s some extra positional advantage available here (Dak, Saquon, JT, AJB) as well as some high value-accruing upside (GWil, Trevor, Rome) that can’t really be had once you get into the next round of assets.
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That’s all I’ve got for you this week! I hope you found some value in this rankings-focused breakdown and are able to cook yourself up a few trades to increase your exposure to some of the new elite talent in the dynasty market.
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