Every fantasy season, we’re reminded of the most volatile sector of the dynasty trade market: the running backs. Year in and year out, we witness elite backs fall dramatically from grace while random waiver wire pickups come out of the woodwork to cement themselves as new top-12 options. It seems like an impossible task to properly navigate this realm of your dynasty league in a way that both protects your buying power while also providing you the point-scoring upside you need to win a championship.
In last week’s installment of this series, I took a look at some noteworthy Week 1 market-movers and identified them as either trade target candidates or sell high candidates. This week, we’ll approach things differently, and try to identify some market deficiencies by analyzing the current state of the dynasty running back market.
The Big Four
Last week, I touched briefly on how De’Von Achane managed to do the impossible, entering “hallowed ground,” as I said, and reaching the topmost elite tier of running back talent in dynasty. He now sits amongst the likes of Bijan, Breece Hall, and Jahmyr Gibbs, who were the offseason big-3. Achane currently projects for 2nd-round ADP similarly to the big 3, which is now officially a big 4.
There’s simply no reason to exclude Achane from this tier as he’s now proven to be just as talented and just as productive, if not to a much more potent degree, than any other running back in dynasty. Achane has elite burst and vision and arguably the best long speed at his position in the league. Pairing this with elite receiving ability is a very simple calculus that suggests an RB1 overall season is on the horizon at some point.
While I’ve spent this time discussing Achane exclusively, the rest of this tier has shown out through two weeks in 2024 as well. Bijan seems primed to take the title of best RB in the league this or next season. As the Falcons offense continues to ramp up, his production should only increase.
Hall has shown elite receiving upside, as well as a vicious, slicing running style that has been gashing defenses and pairs really nicely with his new running mate, Braelon Allen.
Gibbs is locked in as a top option in a top offense with a top play-caller and has arguably the best receiving upside of this group.
The truth is that all 4 of these running backs are probably worth around three firsts in dynasty. And the other side of that truth is that you probably should not trade any of these guys for virtually any offer that hits your inbox. In a world where dominant fantasy running backs are only getting scarcer and scarcer from year to year, it’s never been more important to build your roster around at least one, but preferably two, of these four elite young runners.
Bonus- what makes these guys even better is they all have a capable running mate to prevent unreasonable wear and tear. Hopefully, this trend will continue and add some longevity and insulation to a typically volatile position group.
The Avengers
No, that’s not a typo. And no, it’s not an overreaction either. Christian McCaffrey, who was highlighted in last week’s installment as a sell low, has fallen out of my top 5 dynasty running backs, and if you have any sense, unfortunately, he should probably drop out of your list, too. Let’s discuss.
My argument here is not that Christian McCaffrey is washed, his career is over, or he’ll never be the same player. To some degree, that last part is true, though, but it’s not speaking on McCaffrey as a talent at all. He is still the most talented running back in the NFL, but unfortunately, achilles tendinitis is not a normal injury. While I’m no doctor, I believe this falls more under the category of a medical condition or affliction that will permanently inhibit McCaffrey’s ability to handle anything close to the workloads he has sustained in recent years.
Up to this season, McCaffrey had played in 39 of his last 40 games, averaging over 20 touches per game, which is just an insane rate of usage that we haven’t seen from any other player in that time span. My simple argument for phasing the 28-year-old out of my elite tier of running backs is that he now projects to have a different role going forward. I’m projecting something along the lines of a 60/40 split between McCaffrey and new breakout Jordan Mason (who we’ll get to in a bit), sort of similar to the Gibbs-Montgomery split in Detroit. Not only would this be the smartest decision for McCaffrey’s long-term viability, but it still keeps room for him to continue playing at an elite level, just in a smaller sample. Thus, McCaffrey can still dominate fantasy but with a much more capped ceiling than before.
There are some other guys in this tier as well, believe it or not. Saquon Barkley has looked as elite as ever so far in 2024, and it appears if you want to buy yourself a 2023 CMC, Saquon is it. Barkley could end this season as the most impactful asset in all of fantasy football and seems to be on a fast track to an RB1 overall season.
Jonathan Taylor has produced modestly so far, but I still maintain that the Colts’ offense is oozing with untapped upside. Taylor’s given us no reason to be anything but optimistic about his usage on the ground as well as in the air, and he should begin to score a whole lot more soon.
Alvin Kamara at RB7 is probably the hottest take in my rankings right now. Maybe it’s a slight overreaction, but that also speaks to the lack of high-end depth at the position right now. Kamara is currently the cheapest serious potential RB1 that money can buy, acquirable for a cost as measly as two 2nds. That’s an offer I’m smashing in a heartbeat for a Shanahan-system RB1 in an offense that’s scoring at a higher clip than anyone else in the league so far.
Travis Etienne was the RB3 last year and has received a similar (albeit slightly smaller) workload so far in 2024. The Jaguars offense is sputtering a bit but I’m not doubting that Lawrence and Etienne will begin to start driving this thing forward like they did last year.
This tier I find extremely difficult to put a value on in picks, but all of these guys I’d be willing to send at least a random 2025 1st for, even Kamara, although I’d much rather use a different form of value than an actual 1st to be buying older backs. I would advise you to see where your leaguemates stand and potentially buy one of these guys at a reasonable cost during their peak value just due to people being scared of old age.
The Wasteland Begins
- Kyren Williams
- Jonathon Brooks
- James Cook
- Kenneth Walker
Things start to get ugly right at RB10, where you’re forced to choose from a punt returner, an injured rookie, the 2nd best Cook brother, and Ken Walker.
Kyren Williams remains my favorite of this group for now. He checks a few boxes for me, namely being a workhorse role with receiving involvement and a handy offensive play-caller in the form of Sean McVay. As long as Kyren is tied to McVay and getting a respectable workload from him, he will remain around the low end of fantasy RB1s. While this offense projects to struggle for a few weeks in the near future, Kyren remains a relatively (keyword) safe investment as a Walmart-anchor RB or as a high-end RB2 for contenders.
Jonathon Brooks is my personal favorite bet at cost amongst this tier. He reminds me a lot of Todd Gurley in more ways than just coming to a bad team as a rookie returning from an ACL tear. I genuinely feel that Brooks has potentially elite upside as a rusher and can get himself involved through the air as well. If this Panthers offense is ever going to turn it around in the Canales era, I don’t see how Brooks could not explode (he’s definitely better than Rachaad White). Brooks is the cheapest potential elite RB in the market right now and is someone I’ve been looking to acquire at a discount.
A much uglier bet to make is James Cook, who’s already eclipsed his 2023 touchdown total in just two weeks this season. There seems to be some discussion of Cook entering the top 10 if he maintains this level of touchdown scoring, as his overall usage has never really been an issue. I’m not sure if I’m fully buying this breakout yet, as part of me still wonders if Cook is a good enough pure rusher to keep that role in the long run, but for this season, at least Cook appears to be the #1 skill player in the Bills offense and has been used as such. I’ve since acknowledged that Cook is probably worth right around a random 2025 1st, so he may be rising into the 2nd tier before long.
This tier is one to avoid if you can help it. None of these players feel like safe places to store your roster value, as there’s a wide range of outcomes to be had, and owners are likely looking for something close to ceiling value in order to move off any of them due to the scarcity at the position in-season. If possible, I’d look to tier up or down from this group.
The Outside (Looking In)
- Josh Jacobs
- Joe Mixon
- J.K. Dobbins
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- David Montgomery
- Jordan Mason
- Brian Robinson Jr.
- Derrick Henry
- Isiah Pacheco
- Aaron Jones
- James Conner
The remainder of the top 24 running backs is where the lines begin to blur. I have these 12 ranked all within 20 spots of each other in my dynasty rankings, a sharp contrast to the 80 spots prior in which you can find RBs 1-12.
The main reason for this is that many of the assets in this range are essentially the same. What makes running backs so difficult to consistently evaluate properly in the NFL is how little control they have over their own success. Thus, you can have a wide range of talent levels equalized by situation and circumstance, which is what you see in this tier.
Guys like Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, and Derrick Henry are all similar bets as RB1s who are aging out but have still found themselves in a position to find fantasy success. All these backs have a few things in common: workhorse pedigrees, talented offenses around them, and limited competition for touches. These are ideal targets as budget-anchor RBs for contending teams. I’d look to send around the value equivalent of a late 1st-early 2nd for these guys, but ideally not in the form of actual draft capital.
You’ll also see some interesting names like JK Dobbins and Brian Robinson Jr. in this group. These are my favorite assets to be investing in around this point, as I see a lot of untapped upside potentially lurking as potential backfield leaders for strong running teams.
Lastly, this group features a handful of backs who have proven to be strong, consistent producers but find themselves in the shadow of elite talents. David Montgomery and Jordan Mason are great examples of guys who might find themselves on the wrong end of a 60/40 backfield split but are talented and tough enough to remain fantasy-viable in such a limited role.
If you’re unable to secure a top 4 asset, this range is where you can find yourself some cost-effective replacements. However, you’re unlikely to replace the high-end production you could be getting. Thus, I think a point of emphasis to take away from this article is that obtaining at least one of the top 9 backs in this list on all of your rosters is a great way to ensure at least 50% of your RB room will produce at a high level. From there, you can pivot to the wider range of budget options and pick whichever archetype fits your team the best.
That’s all I’ve got for you this week! Remember, all these valuations are based on my own rankings and opinions of these players, so you might find different owners valuing guys at different costs in your leagues. Make sure when sending offers to analyze the market of your own league and capitalize on the deficiencies that you find unique to your opposing managers. Happy trading!
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