The year was 2014, amongst many other discrepancies in the world, Jimmy Graham changed his Twitter bio to inform the world that he was a wide receiver, not a tight end. An NFL arbitrator had to step in and rule on this case. Why is this important? Because Jimmy Graham was franchised tagged by the New Orleans Saints and wanted to be designated as a wide receiver rather than a tight end. Graham lined up split out on 67% of the Saints snaps the previous season. If Graham had been designated as a wide receiver, he would have made 71% more money on his franchise tender than as a tight end. The NFL arbitrator ruled that Graham was a tight end, saving Mickey Loomis millions of dollars.
Kyle Pitts Profile & Production
Kyle Pitts is a junior pass catcher for the Florida Gators. He broke out as a true sophomore in his 2019 campaign with 51 catches for 610 yards and five TDs. Within the Florida Gators offense, Pitts accounted for 16% of their passing offense and had an adjusted dominator rating of 16.7%. He averaged a decent 12 yards per catch and averaged 1.43 yards per team pass attempt. The 6’6”, 246 lb. player was on NFL radars entering the season, but no one expected the level of dominance that Pitts had in 2020.
Against only SEC opponents, Pitts hauled in 43 passes for 770 yards and 12 TDs. Pitts accounted for 16.9% of the receiving yardage and 26% of the receiving scoring which equates to a 21.5% dominator rating. Pitts did this while only playing in 66% of Florida’s games, making these metrics absurdly difficult to accomplish. He averaged 17.9 yards per catch, which is above the 16% threshold for correlating to being a deep threat in the NFL. Pitts also contributed 3.26 yards per route run, a figure that is the eighth-most among SEC pass catchers over the last five seasons.
Pitts’ 3.3 yards per route run is more impressive than the likes of A.J. Brown during his Ole Miss career, D.J. Chark at LSU, Calvin Ridley at Alabama, Justin Jefferson’s insane 2019 season, and many more. We set this as an indicator that Pitts is a very talented pass catcher agnostic of position. Let’s break down his 2020 season based on where he lined up on the field. Pitts caught 19 passes for 453 yards and five TDs starting as an inline tight end, he caught 12 passes for 145 yards and three TDs lined up in the slot, and he caught 12 passes for 172 yards and four TDs split out wide. I bring all of this together to point out that 51% of Pitt’s production was lined up on the outside versus 49% lined up as a tight end.
Rookie Values Change Over Time
Over the past three seasons, there have been nine wide receivers drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft. Their average rookie ADP was 66.7, however, by the end of their rookie season, these nine players averaged an increase in value moving up 15 spots in ADP to 51.7. Within this dataset, six of the nine players appreciated whereas only one-third depreciated. N’Keal Harry, Henry Ruggs, and Jalen Reagor depreciated while Brandon Aiyuk, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Marquise Brown, Calvin Ridley, and D.J. Moore all saw their ADP cut in half from year one to year two.
In the same period, there have been six tight ends drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft. Their average rookie ADP was 110.8. Their second season ADP got better by only 9 draft slots on average. While you may argue that the wide receivers moving up by 15 spots is not much better than the tight ends moving up nine spots, you also must take into account the value of higher draft slots. First-round wide receiver values increased by 22% in value versus just the 8% increase tight ends experienced.
While you may believe that Kyle Pitts being designated as a tight end is more beneficial for his value as the consensus TE5 right now, his market value as a wide receiver offers more return on value from year one to year two. If designated as a wide receiver rather than a tight end, Kyle Pitts would be the overall WR20 right now. Pitts is the 50th ranked player in Superflex and tight end premium leagues. Despite losing the reception premium, according to recent averages, Kyle Pitts would be expected to rise 12 spots to 38th overall as a wide receiver versus just four spots as a tight end with the premium.
The Conclusive Answer
Regardless of what position Pitts plays, if he is drafted sixth overall to the Philadelphia Eagles, we would expect a $26,638,000 contract as a tight end or a wide receiver. When it becomes more valuable for Pitts is in the second contract or, more likely, in the form of a franchise tender. The average NFL wide receiver makes $2.5 million per year versus just $2 million for the average tight end. Pitts would not be drafted in the top ten to be an average pass catcher. When it comes to the salary cap, if Pitts were designated as a wide receiver, the current contract would be $19,271,000. As a tight end, his contract would be $10,494,300 under the franchise tag.
In both Pitts’ fantasy value as well as his on-field earnings, Pitts is more valuable as a wide receiver. We will expect a higher value gain from year one to year two, as well as expecting a much more lavish second contract.
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