No March Madness. No Premier League. No NBA, MLB, or NHL events, period.
Amidst a total sports shutdown, bettors everywhere are embracing whatever they can get their hands on to keep them entertained during these times. Heck, we’re getting so antsy that betting on simulations is even starting to sound normal.
Fortunately, the NFL’s offseason has whetted many sports fans’ appetites. Free agency has already been quite the spectacle and the DFF team has done a great job of covering all of the biggest moves. Meanwhile, the NFL Draft is still slated to proceed as planned on April 23rd meaning that one of my favorite events is just around the corner. Not only is it a blast to see the culmination of these young men’s journeys, but it’s an exciting opportunity to place some fun prop bets as well!
With that being said, here are some position-specific props that I think provide great value. I’ll be covering offense in this article and defense in another. All odds are provided by our friends at DraftKings.
Let’s get started!
Total Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round
Line: Over 4.5 (+340) | Under 4.5 (-455)
Sure things: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love
Hopefuls: Jacob Eason, Jake Fromm, Jalen Hurts
Let’s start with the big guns. There are three quarterbacks almost guaranteed to go off the board in the top 10 picks. Before the Colts traded their first-rounder to the 49ers, I would have picked Love to go off the board in the first 15. However, I still believe it’s a safe bet that Love goes in the first to team with an aging veteran to learn behind, such as the New Orleans Saints.
I have to concur with Matt Miller that the Saints or the Patriots would be a good fit; that leaves one QB left. While I don’t see Eason or Fromm as a first-round talent, we have seen teams trade back into the late first to ensure a fifth-year option on their franchise passer (2014, 2018). The Kansas City Chiefs enter the draft with only five picks, so a trade down is not out of the question. Given the -455 odds for the under, I’ll bet on that trade occurring.
Prediction: Over 4.5 (+340)
Total Running Backs Drafted in the First Round
Line: Over 0.5 (-305) | Under 0.5 (+240)
Sure things: None
Hopefuls: D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor
With the continued devaluation of the running back position, it’s sad to see that we’re betting on even one being taken in the first round despite the obvious talent some of these kids possess. Most mocks have the Dolphins selecting D’Andre Swift with the 26th pick, but I’ve seen a few pegging the Ravens to look at the position as well. The Buccaneers could also be looking at the position with very few enticing options left on the roster. While I’m not sure that either of the last two scenarios come to fruition, I do expect the Dolphins to address the position early with their plethora of picks rather than give Jordan Howard the reins.
Prediction: Over 0.5 (-305)
Total Wide Receivers Drafted in the First Round
Line: Over 5.5 (-143) | Under 5.5 (+118)
Sure things: Jerry Jeudy, Ceedee Lamb, Henry Ruggs
Hopefuls: Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Reagor, Brandon Aiyuk, Denzel Mims
This year’s wide receiver class has long been touted as one of the best in recent memory, and a quick look at the potential first-round hopefuls confirms that story. There will be an absolute plethora of top-end receiving talent in the 2020 draft.
However, this may actually work against the overall numbers of players drafted early. Given the depth at the position, teams are likely to get great value in the second or even third round much like the Titans and Seahawks did with A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf, respectively, in 2019. I’ll follow that simple supply-demand logic and take the under on total receivers.
Prediction: Under 5.5 (+118)
Total Tight Ends Drafted in the First Round
Line: Over 0.5 (+1000) | Under 0.5 (-2000)
Sure things: None
Hopefuls: Cole Kmet, Brycen Hopkins
I don’t think there’s any doubt that Cole Kmet is the top tight end in this years’ draft, but a first-rounder? The odds show how unlikely that scenario is.
Prediction: Under 0.5 (-2000)
Total Offensive Linemen Drafted in the First Round
Line: Over 6.5 (+118) | Under 6.5 (-143)
Sure things: Jedrick Wills Jr., Tristan Wirfs, Mekhi Becton, Andrew Thomas
Hopefuls: Josh Jones, Austin Jackson, Ezra Cleveland, Cesar Ruiz
Most mocks have a run on offensive tackles beginning at the eighth pick and for good reason. The Cardinals, Browns, and Jets desperately need help in the trenches while the Jaguars aren’t exactly set along the line either. However, after the sure things are gone at tackle the picture gets much hazier.
Josh Jones boasts excellent size and athleticism but is very raw. Austin Jackson seems to be a solid prospect, but not a great one. After those two there’s a whole lot of question marks.
I expect an early run on tackles that will leave bettors sweating but ultimately for it to come just under the 6.5 mark.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (-143)
Disagree with my predictions? Have any more information that I should be looking at? Feel free to DM me on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits.
