Dynasty Football Factory

My FFPC Draft Recap: Steve Halupka

It is was a privilege to represent Dynasty Football Factory in this FFPC Superflex Dynasty league. The slow draft started on May 26th and wrapped up on June 9th. The added aspect of a Superflex made this draft undoubtedly different than traditional dynasty drafts, but that will be on display later in the first recap of the few rounds. The FFPC dynasty leagues only allow a team to hold onto 16 total players heading into the next offseason and those must include a kicker and defense. I’ll take a look at some of the surprises, values, and thoughts about my selections in a round-by-round format. For reference, my team name is  “halsteve” as you view the various stages of the draft board.

Round 1:

Surprise Pick: Saquon Barkley 1.01 (Blues), Carson Wentz 1.08 (Mycroft’s Minions)

Value:  Antonio Brown 1.09 (Giddy Up)

The Shockers started right at the start of this draft with New York Giants’ rookie running back Saquon Barkley selected at 1.01 overall. There is no doubt that Barkley will see a ton of work for the Giants going forward, but it indeed is a risky strategy to spend the first pick overall on a player that hasn’t been on an NFL field yet. The surprises continued with two more running backs, Todd Gurley and David Johnson, being selected before the first wide receiver.  I chose Odell Beckham Jr. at 1.04 in about seven minutes after my timer started. Honestly, I was shocked to see Beckham last until 1.04 as a consensus 1.01 in most dynasty startup ADPs.

In another surprise, it was Carson Wentz being selected as the first quarterback off the board at 1.08 over Aaron Rodgers. Wentz had a magical season in 2017 before his season-ending injury, but to expect his touchdown rate 7.5% is indeed an outlier and isn’t repeatable has he ages.

There was one first-round draft pick traded in the first round as Scarlet Begonias traded back from 1.10 to 2.11 while picking up a 2019 1st round draft pick in the process from TurdFerg. TurdFerg, after taking Todd Gurley at 1.02 picked up Russell Wilson at 1.10 giving him two of the elite options at QB and RB.

Rounds 2:

Surprise Pick: Deshaun Watson 2.02 (Green Bros)

Value: Travis Kelce 2.12 (Blues), Aaron Rodgers 2.03 (Scarlet Begonias)

Green Bros. was undoubtedly team hype train to start off the first two rounds of the draft selecting regression candidates Alvin Kamara and Deshaun Watson with their first two picks. However, if Watson and Kamara can continue to be the dominant players as they were in their rookie year, Green Bros will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come in this league. The middle and end of the round demonstrated just how far running backs have come over the last two seasons. None of the five running backs selected are over 25 years old and should each have five years of near-elite production left in their careers. Speaking of running backs, I knew that the top-end RB1 options were drying up, so I selected Melvin Gordon at 2.09.

Considering the FFPC format of 1.5 points per reception by a tight end, Blues selecting Travis Kelce at the end of the second round is a great value. He is the top dynasty tight end and tied Keenan Allen in scoring last season (277 points) in FFPC leagues. He can be a difference maker at the position with the lack of elite tight end options after the season-ending injury to Hunter Henry.

Only seeing nine wide receivers taken in the first two rounds of a dynasty league startup was undoubtedly odd considering there are 12 in the most recent DFF dynasty ADP. The selection of quarterbacks certainly pushed down the value of wide receiver which you’ll see even be more exaggerated in later rounds.

Round 3:

Surprise Pick: Jordan Howard 3.12 (Giddy Up)

Value: AJ Green 3.01 (Mycroft’s Minions)

Mycroft’s Minions must have been targeting AJ Green as the third round approached as they traded their 6th round picks (6.05) and 2019 1st rounder to Blues for 3.01. Mycroft’s core of Carson Wentz, Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, and AJ Green will make his team very formidable even if he doesn’t have a first-round draft pick in 2019.

I knew I wanted a top-end dynasty quarterback to anchor that position group and in a 4-point passing touchdown league, Cam Newton is as elite as they come. Even in one of his worst passing seasons in 2017, Newton finished third in scoring at the position according to FFPC scoring. He should be even better in his second season with Christian McCaffrey and a new outside receiver in DJ Moore.

There was one trade made between Giddy Up and EMPAJP which sent 3.12, 8.01, and 11.12 to Giddy Up for 5.09, 7.09, 10.04, and EMPAJP’s 2019 1st round draft pick. It made two 2019 1st round draft picks already traded in just three rounds. After trading for the 3.12, Giddy Up selected Jordan Howard. I considered that a reach in a PPR dynasty league as he caught the fewest passes among top-10 scorers at the position in 2017.

Round 4:

Surprise Pick: Corey Davis 4.07 (Turkey Hole), Evan Engram 4.02 (Green Bros)

Value: Devonta Freeman 4.03 (EMPAJP)

The fourth round kicked off with a bunch of trades as 4.01, 4.03 and 4.04 were each traded in a 24 hour period. Giddy Up traded up to take Derrius Guice to pair with Jordan Howard. In this deal, EMPAJP picked up more 2019 draft picks (2nd and 3rd round) along with 4.04 and 12.04 for 4.01 and 12.01. 4.03 and 6.03 were then swapped from Scarlet Begonias to EMPAJP (4.04 and 5.12) to move up and select Devonta Freeman. It was one of the best picks of the round as Freeman could have been considered one of the last RB1 available.

After trading back from 4.03 to 4.04, Scarlet Begonias selected their 2nd quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. This high upside pick early in the draft set up Scarlet Begonias for success at the QB position for years to come.

The remainder of the round saw a bit of a surprise at 4.02 with the selection of Evan Engram at 4.02. He is undoubtedly the last of the “elite” tight ends after the injury to Hunter Henry but is due for a regression in targets in 2018 as Odell Beckham returns.

Round 5:

Surprise Pick: Rashaad Penny 5.01 (Blues)

Value: Doug Baldwin 5.07 (Guam Bomb 101)

I finally made my move in Round 5 after seeing TY Hilton last all the way until the back end of the round. I traded by 2019 1st round pick and 6.09 for 5.09 (Hilton) and a 2019 2nd round pick from EMPAJP. EMPAJP now has four of the 12 first round draft picks in 2019. I paired Hilton with Andrew Luck at 5.04 as quarterbacks were flying off the board at this point (10 in 14 picks). Luck is a risk as he hasn’t thrown a football seriously since 2016, but the upside cannot be ignored.

The value at wide receiver was excellent throughout this draft, and round 5 was no exception with Doug Baldwin, Adam Thielen, and TY Hilton all going in this round. Running backs, however, were drying up quickly as three rookie running backs found themselves selected in Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, and Nick Chubb, along with Derrick Henry. Each of these backs has potential to be every week starters, but that might not occur until 2019 at the earliest.

Rounds 6-8

Surprise Pick: Baker Mayfield 6.05 (Blues), Devante Parker 8.02 (Green Bros)

Value: Tevin Coleman 7.05 (Moreland 250SF), Mark Ingram 7.11 (Green Bros), Jimmy Graham 8.08 (Moreland 250SF)

Again, some insane values at wide receiver in the middle rounds as players like Sammy Watkins, Alshon Jeffery, and Demaryius Thomas fell into rounds 6 and 7. These players should be every week starters for their respective teams for the next few seasons.

Rookies and second-year players littered these round with rookies Baker Mayfield, Ronald Jones, and Royce Freeman all going in round 6, D.J. Moore, Kerryon Johnson, and Calvin Ridley going in round 7, and Josh Rosen being selected in Round 8. D.J. Moore was subsequently traded from Blues along with 11.01 to TurdFerg for 8.11, 9.02 and a 2019 2nd round pick. The 8.11 pick turned into Tarik Cohen for Blues.

My picks:

I knew that this point I had stocked up enough on wide receivers having taken four with my first six selections (OBJ, Brandin Cooks, TY Hilton, Alshon Jeffery), so adding to my running back corps was my next objective. Most in the fantasy community are down on Lamar Miller, but he should be the starter in Houston for at least the rest of this season.

Rounds 9-11

Surprise Pick: Mike Gesicki 10.1 (EMPAJP), Jacksonville Defense 10.2 (Green Bros)

Value: Philip Rivers 9.01 (Blues) Julian Edelman 11.09 (Green Bros)

It was pretty amazing that every week starters for 2018 could be found this late in the startup. Players like Greg Olsen (Scarlet Begonias), Jamison Crowder (Green Bros), and Julian Edelman (Green Bros) should all see starting lineups throughout the 2018 season for their respective owners. The selection of Philip Rivers by Blues at 9.01 should also be considered grand theft.

There were a few trades that went down as owners jockeyed for position to select “their” guys in the mid rounds of this draft. Green Bros traded 9.11, 14.02, and a 2019 3rd round pick to Mycroft’s Minions for 10.05, 14.02, and a 2019 2nd rounder. Mycroft was able to use 9.11 to select Trey Burton as the central piece of that deal with Green Bros taking Jamison Crowder after trading back. TurdFerg also moved up from their slot at 10.11 to 10.07 to capture Delanie Walker, one of the last strong starting options at tight end. Moving up to 10.07 also cost TurdFerg their 2019 3rd round pick which went to Turkey Hole. Turkey Hole then took Tyler Eifert after moving back. The final trade was Moreland250SF moving up to 11.10 for Sterling Shepard and trading away a 2019 2nd rounder and 13.05 to Scarlet Begonias. Begonias threw in a 2019 7th round draft pick as well.

The last trade that took place was between Giddy Up and Green Bros as Green Bros. moved up to 11.09, 16.04, and 20.04 for 11.11, 16.02, 20.02, and a 2019 5th round draft pick. After trading up, Green Bros. was able to select Julian Edelman, which was one of the best picks of the draft. After trading back, Giddy Up bolstered their running back core with CJ Anderson.

My Picks:

It was fascinating to see how far I could have left Hunter Henry fall before taking in at 9.04. Thinking that he will be a significant factor next season as my TE1 assuming he comes back healthy from his torn ACL. I then continued to bolster my running back corps with both Jamaal Williams (10.09) and Rex Burkhead (11.04) who each can provide some upside in the middle rounds. If Williams or Burkhead become the “lead” back for one of their respective offenses, these could be league winning picks in rounds 10 and 11.

Round 12-15

Surprise Picks: 12.07 Sam Bradford (Turkey Hole), 15.10 Philadelphia Eagles (Scarlet Begonias)

Value Picks: 13.02 Andy Dalton (TurdFerg), 14.06 Kelvin Benjamin (Guam Bomb 101), 15.11 James Washington (Green Bros.)

Finally, teams filled out their rosters with wide receivers with five of the first six selections of round 12 being wideouts. Moreland 250SF made the first move by trading up to 12.01 to grab Bears rookie wide receiver, Anthony Miller. Moreland 250SF gave up 15.05 and 16.08 to move up to 12.01 and also received a 7th round draft pick in 2019.

More young wide receivers came off the board with three of the next four picks with Nelson Agholor (12.03), Josh Docston (12.04) and Courtland Sutton (12.05). The youth movement was in full effect for the remainder of these rounds as players like Michael Gallup (13.05), Tre’quan Smith (13.06), Dante Pettis (14.08), and Keke Coutee (15.07) all were selected between rounds 12-15.

At this point running back really started to dry up as pass catching backs like Nyheim Hines (12.08), Theo Riddick (12.09) and Corey Clement (12.12) were some of the first running back selections. Teams were looking for some upside with these players who stand to be on the field in passing situations for their respective teams.

My Picks:

These “depth” rounds turned out to be very important to fill in the gaps in my roster after the first 11 rounds. I was able to select Ryan Tannehill at 14.09 after Tyrod Taylor (14.03), and Case Keenum (13.07) were both long gone as my third quarterback who is immense value for a player that should continue to be his team’s starting quarterback until at least the 2020 season. Jared Cook in the 13th round as my starting tight end wasn’t preferable, but considering the options left at the position, Cook offers both the safety and upside for this year while I wait for Hunter Henry to come back in 2019. If this were a year ago, there would have been no way that John Ross would have lasted until the 15th round of a dynasty startup. I was happy to grab him here.

Rounds 16-20

Value Picks: Joe Flacco 18.02 (Green Bros), Doug Martin 19.11 (Green Bros)

The final rounds of the draft were mostly quiet besides one trade that went down between Blues and Green Bros. Blues traded up to 16.04 to capture Eagles’ rookie tight end Dallas Goedert. Blues also received 20.04 which turned into Robbie Gould. In exchange, Green Bros. took Justin Tucker to end round 16 at 16.12 as the first kicker off the board, and after receiving 19.01 as the other pick in the trade, selected Boston Scott.

What was surprising was that one team, Turkey Hole, ended up without a kicker at the conclusion of the draft. They will have to cut one of their players at some point this preseason to field a complete roster.

It was interesting to see Joe Flacco last all the way until the 18th round in a SuperFlex league. Even if Flacco isn’t the starter in 2019, he can be easily cut in the offseason.

My Picks:

I knew I needed some tight end depth behind Jared Cook, and with the removal of over 110 targets from the Cardinals offense, Ricky Seals-Jones should see an uptick. I’m undoubtedly happy capturing the Baltimore defense as a week one streaming option as they face whatever you can call the Buffalo Bills offense to open the season. Spencer Ware and Albert Wilson both have some upside for the 2018 season, but in Ware’s case, he will need an injury to Kareem Hunt. Jake Elliott has a length of a leg as there is in the NFL after hitting a 63 yarder to beat the Giants last season. He should score a ton of points again this year in the high-powered Eagles’ offense.

Overall, I believe I do have a team to compete in year one of this dynasty, although that may depend on the health of Andrew Luck. If Luck can play all 16 games, he and Cam Newton as my top two quarterbacks are one of the top combinations in the league. The one weakness of my team is at running back, but if any of Lamar Miller, Rex Burkhead or Jamaal Williams takes the lead in their respective backfields, I should be in great shape.

Look for more updates for this and our other DFF FFPC leagues throughout the season.

You can find me @TheRealHalupka on Twitter and soon to be on the SuperFlexible podcast on the DFF Podcast Network.

shalupka

Fantasy football writer for @DFF_redraft and @Rotoballer and former D-III offensive lineman. Host of the Super Flexible Podcast. Member of the FSWA. #dffarmy

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