The first 30 or so spots of my rankings are reserved for the best, most elite bluechip young talents in the league. This is the rough cutoff for me between truly elite cornerstone assets and the next tier of slightly less insulated or slightly less talented players. I’m proud to say my Dynasty “30 under 30,” if you want to call it that, features a pretty even distribution with 3 running backs, 3 tight ends, 9 wide receivers, and, 15 quarterbacks.
If you play Superflex anything similar to the same way I do, priority number one in every draft is securing two young, talented, (ideally both) cornerstone quarterbacks. Usually, I like to pivot to elite TEs shortly after this, but the main goal that always remains the same is the necessity for 2 elite quarterbacks on all my Supeflex rosters.
This strategy brings me back to my dynasty top-30. I promise it’s not as crazy as it sounds to have that many quarterbacks ranked that high. But I thought it would be interesting to explain my ordering of the 15 elite quarterbacks that I would prioritize over all but 5 non-quarterbacks when selecting in the first 2 rounds of startup drafts. Starting from the top, all the way down to 15.
QB1-QB4: The Cream of the Crop (SF Startup 1.01-1.04)
In every startup or dispersal I’ve been in this offseason, a clear consensus top four quarterbacks has seemed to emerge.
You either have Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, and Lamar Jackson as your top four startup picks, probably in that order, or you’re just wrong.
There’s not much more to deliberate on here. We have multiple MVP awards, multiple Super Bowls (thanks, Patrick), and more simply put, four bluechip passing talents with either tremendous rushing upside attached (Allen and Lamar) or an almost unlimited amount of insulation due to being on a GOAT-conversation-level pace at this point in their careers (Pat and C.J.). Draft them.
- Josh Allen
- Patrick Mahomes
- C.J. Stroud
- Lamar Jackson
QB5-QB11: The Remaining Elite (SF Startup 1.05-2.02)
This goliath of a value tier is where my rankings get really spicy, and this is what inspired me to write this piece. My favorite of the next set of quarterbacks is none other than my #1 dynasty darling, Anthony Richardson.
People will rave about the size, athleticism, rushing upside, and insane pace he was on in 2023, all of which they are totally correct to be raving about, but what gets me so excited to draft AR as high as the startup 1.05 (you heard me) is his progression as a passer. We’ve seen interviews of Shane Steichen raving about his processing speed, and more importantly, we saw glimpses of Richardson making throws almost no one else in the league can make, like this one against the Rams. I’ve never felt this confident about an unproven player in my life: I’d stake my entire reputation as a semi-pro ball knower that this kid is going to be an insanely good football player if he stays healthy.
My next two spots include the biggest twist yet; Joe Burrow at the 1.06 is fairly chalk; he’s arguably the 2nd best quarterback in the league and as good a pure passer as anyone in the NFL right now as well. But my startup 1.07 is my 2nd favorite 2024 MVP dark horse (after AR), Jordan Love.
Sometimes as watchers of the sport, we just need to trust what we see. There were a million signs pointing towards Jordan Love potentially sucking at football, and thereby being a bad fantasy investment as well. But when I watched him play early last year and in flashes before, I could tell there was some truly elite talent masked under an admittedly gross combination of poor analytics and wonky mechanics. Unfortunately for me, I still avoided investing heavy value due to the risk involved in this situation. This is a decision I’ve come to regret.
So I’m also going to trust my gut now, which tells me that we are still yet to see Jordan Love at his absolute best. He did some incredible things down the stretch last season and was literally plays away from the Super Bowl. We don’t have to overthink this: a new face of an NFL franchise has just arrived, and he’s not going anywhere anytime soon. I anticipate that Love will improve his rapport with his young WR and TE room, and now with a proven bellcow running back to lean on, I feel like Matt LaFleur is going to be able to do absolutely anything he wants to defenses all season long. The Green Bay Packers are going to be a top 5 offense in the NFL, and Jordan Love is going to cement himself firmly in the top tier of passers. This kind of upside makes him my pick at the 1.07.
At the 1.08, I’m taking Caleb Williams. He’s in a tier with some of the other best prospects of this millennia and is landing in possibly the greatest surrounding situation for a #1 overall pick ever. He’s going to score a lot of fantasy points. Draft him everywhere you can, higher than the 1.08 even if you want. The upside is endless, and you can always cash out for a king’s ransom if you get scared of pink nails and a phone case.
Which then means Jalen Hurts falls all the way to my 1.09. The simple truth is I just won’t have any shares, which is reflected in the 0% Hurts exposure in my portfolio.
Perhaps this is an oversight, as Hurts is still maybe the 2nd best point scorer in fantasy football, and also with an OC upgrade seemingly having come to town in Kellen Moore (anything other than Brian Johnson is great though) and still the most elite cast of weapons in the NFL. But long term, I have more faith in the first 8 guys I mentioned to become assets with some combination of elite rushing or elite high-level passing (both is best) with similarly elite situations in the form of playcalling and/or surrounding talent (again, both is best). Hurts checks some of these boxes, but there are just some guys who I feel check more, or do so for me with much more conviction.
Filling out this tier are two more elite, face-of-their-franchise guys in Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray.
Herbert fits in the same archetype as Joe Burrow and Jordan Love of being an elite, high-volume passer; however, I think he’s set up for the least volume of the three in the immediate future as well as the worst supporting cast and least fantasy-friendly coaching staff (all respect to Harbaugh though). Herbert below Love is not really a talent take for me personally, I think that argument could go either way, but I would rather have Love and a share of that Packers offense than a Herbert cut of the Chargers offense.
Murray fits more of the hybrid archetype of elite quarterbacks, not only being a high-level passer but also threatening defenses on the ground week in and week out. Murray seems set to receive a top-tier offensive weapon or protector, either of which should give you confidence in a monster fantasy season out of K1 in 2024. Kyler is every bit as much of a franchise quarterback as anyone I’ve mentioned, and could just as well be at the very top of this tier come 2025.
- Anthony Richardson
- Joe Burrow
- Jordan Love
- Caleb Williams
- Jalen Hurts
- Justin Herbert
- Kyler Murray
QB12-QB13: Wait, This Guy Can’t Be Serious Right? (SF Startup 2.04 and beyond)
If you think you know what you’re about to read, I’d suggest you think again. After a brief break in my rankings for some bluechips (take a guess which three WRs, plus one Bijan), we arrive at the hottest (Maybe? Is it even?) of all the takes I’ve given in this piece.
If for some reason I was given just the startup 2.04 (16th overall) and 2.05 (17th overall) to start my team with, and the top 15 went as I just suggested it should (11 QBs and the top 4 non-QBs). My two picks would be Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels, back to back, in that order, not that that matters.
Maye’s range of outcomes appears to be quite wide. We don’t know if he’ll be wearing Patriot blue, Commander maroon, or Viking purple. But what I do feel confident saying about Maye is that he is the 2nd most impressive overall passer in this class. What Caleb Williams is able to do out of structure sets him apart from these two rookies (obviously), but Maye’s slightly less dominant abilities in that area, combined with prototypical size and the ability to play QB as a high-level processor, makes me extremely excited for my 2024 rookie QB2. Landing spot could scare a lot of people away, but it could also drive his value through the roof. You all know me as a chaser of upside, so you know where I side on the Maye debate.
My argument for Daniels isn’t all too different. He has similarly high upside despite a distinctly different play style, but Daniels will almost certainly be receiving similar if not better draft capital than Maye and will thus have similar insulation as a young Dynasty asset. Combine that insulation with his game-breaking rushing upside, and you’re looking at a guy with a fantasy ceiling that is genuinely endless if he can ever take the next step as a passer. That kind of upside can’t be ignored when selecting the cornerstones of your Dynasty teams, even when there may appear to be safer options on the board.
- Drake Maye
- Jayden Daniels
QB14-QB15: The No-Fun Picks (Startup 2.06 and beyond)
I now will offer a brief on an alternative for the more risk-averse readers. The next quarterback in your queue after the “Elite 11” can also be one of Trevor Lawrence or Dak Prescott.
If you’re too scared to take Maye and Daniels, I don’t know why Lawrence would feel any safer for you. I have both of those two above him as I see them obtaining similar draft capital insulation, however, there’s a slight offset of factors as Lawrence was a better prospect, but Maye and Daniels provide the ability to reset the insulation clock with Lawrence now heading into year four after a disappointing 2023 campaign.
Sure, Lawrence is “relatively” more proven against NFL competition than Maye and Daniels, but I’d rather someone be unproven and still potentially end up head and shoulders above the competition than have someone proven to struggle in the NFL. Lawrence is not quite at that point yet, but he’s much closer than the rookies are and therefore a bigger dice roll in my opinion. Lawrence remains a high-upside QB2 investment that I’d be happy paying a startup 2.06 or later for, but I’d try not to take him much higher than that.
If you actually are looking for a conservative QB2 pick in the late 2nd, Dak Prescott is your guy. Dak lacks the long-term upside to become a top-10 Dynasty startup pick that Maye, Daniels, and even Lawrence all still have within their range of outcomes.
But, he makes up for this lack of upside by outproducing over half of those top-10 startup picks every season. Dak is one of few quarterbacks in the league with multiple QB5 or better finishes on his resume, one of those being an age 29, 20.7PPG QB4 season that was—oh wait—last year. That’s right, Dak is just now entering his prime years of fantasy production, so now is probably the perfect time to be scooping him up as a discounted QB1/elite QB2 option who will provide difference-making point scoring in your lineups all season.
- Trevor Lawrence
- Dak Prescott
Concluding Thoughts
There are options for your quarterback slots beyond these top 15, for sure. Guys like J.J. McCarthy, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Deshaun Watson, Bryce Young, and even Will Levis all strike me as guys who could push their way somewhere in between my top-15 QBs in the PPG rankings this coming fantasy season. But the reality is that quarterback production is hard to replace and hard to predict, so rolling with known commodities or commodities with game-breaking upside is an integral part of my Dynasty strategy. So, as a final sendoff, I’ll include my tiered rankings of the high-end QB market.
- Josh Allen
- Patrick Mahomes
- C.J. Stroud
- Lamar Jackson
- Anthony Richardson
- Joe Burrow
- Jordan Love
- Caleb Williams
- Jalen Hurts
- Justin Herbert
- Kyler Murray
- Drake Maye
- Jayden Daniels
- Trevor Lawrence
- Dak Prescott
I hope you enjoyed reading this monster of an article. If you learned a thing or two, or even just had fun, be sure to follow my Twitter and TikTok accounts @BWinkNFL and find my full rookie QB breakdowns in the DFF Rookie Guide! #DFFArmy
