Welcome to the Consensus: Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Will Levis, Marquise Brown
Biggest Risers: Saquon Barkley, Kirk Cousins, Zamir White
Sneakier Risers: George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, Josh Jacobs
Biggest Sinkers: Justin Fields, D’Andre Swift
Sneakier Sinkers: T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison, Keenan Allen
Ben’s Highlights
Saquon Barkley to Philadelphia
Barkley had been slipping in my rankings pretty much ever since I joined the crew of rankers at DFF. His 3rd round startup ADP last offseason was always rich for my blood, but I now am happy to admit that I overcorrected in my valuation of Saquon and didn’t factor this good of a potential free agency landing spot as part of his range of outcomes. Barkley was in the 80-90 range of my dynasty rankings, which placed him around the late 6th-early 7th of startup drafts. Now, he sits in the low 60s which I equate to around a 5th round startup pick. I’d be pretty happy with Saquon around there if I was drafting today and will be looking to acquire more shares. He certainly has a CMC in SF level ceiling in Philadelphia if he and that offense as a whole can return to form.
Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts
It’s finally happened! If you follow along meticulously you’ll know that London has been my dynasty WR10 for over a year now, and Pitts has remained my TE5 or higher (TE3 currently) through all the trials and tribulations that were Desmond Ridder. I believe firmly that if you were waiting for London and Pitts’ QB replacement of our dreams to land, you simply would miss out on the whole point of projecting their value jump to happen. Essentially, it’s better to be early and wrong with a cheaper cost of admission than to pay the luxury tax to buy in at full price later.
Cousins, now paired with two top-10 draft picks out on the perimeter and another one in the backfield, as well as a McVay disciple, will almost certainly provide low-end QB1 numbers for the next 4 seasons. I preach patience with Kirko, but projecting a full recovery from his Achilles injury he should be right with the Jared Goff tier of quarterbacks in the middle rounds of startup drafts.
Robinson should remain a top-20 dynasty asset in everyone’s rankings. He’s unquestionably the dynasty RB1 and will thrive in the high-volume Kyren Williams role that Zac Robinson had a hand in designing. I think there’s a serious argument for Bijan as the 2nd most valuable non-QB in Superflex.
London is now a consensus top-10 dynasty WR, which is awesome, but I wouldn’t want to pay up that much at this point. The whole appeal of Drake London was when you could flip Zay Flowers and a small plus for him, or when people would take a random first straight up. Now, with people likely asking for the 1.06+ in pick value, London’s ceiling might not outweigh the price tag anymore.
Pitts now enters his 4th season and is another year removed from his MCL tear in 2022 that seems to have plagued the first phase of his career. As we saw from T.J. Hockenson’s insane breakout season, Kirk loves to target TEs, and if there’s one thing we need for Kyle Pitts, it’s more of those. I’m mostly joking, as Pitts’ target share is actually not the glaring problem, but the honest truth is that this match is exactly what fantasy managers have been praying for Kyle Pitts. Wheels up.
The Pickens/Diontae Divorce Settlement
A pretty revolting offense began to take shape in Pittsburgh this offseason. The additions of Arthur Smith, the continuation of the Kenny Pickett saga, and then the eventual signing of Russell Wilson seemed to spell fantasy doom for the highly controversial Steeler WR duo. Fortunately, things have resolved themselves rather nicely for a couple of reasons.
Diontae Johnson in Carolina feels like an excellent fit. He has a fairly similar skill set to Adam Thielen, but with much more explosiveness especially at this point in his career. Thielen’s renaissance season last year despite rookie Bryce Young’s well-documented struggles should give fantasy managers plenty of reason to be excited about the potential Diontae has in this offense. Combine that with the addition of QB/offensive guru Dave Canales as head coach, and you’re looking at a route-running savant & longtime target hog now getting arguably the best QB and playcaller of his career. It sounds crazy to say, but I genuinely believe that Diontae has a Diggs/AJB level ceiling in his new home (obviously those are the best-case scenarios but within the range of outcomes).
On the other hand, George Pickens is now losing his biggest target competition and coming off a breakout sophomore campaign where he cracked 1,100 receiving yards in one of, if not the worst passing offenses in the league. Not only that, but Pickens seems like the much more ideal stylistic fit of the two in this new-look Steelers offense. His deep ball & contested catching prowess will fit nicely with both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, whoever may end up winning that room, and he’s going to eat on deep crossers over the middle in Arthur Smith’s play-action centric passing attack. I was pretty out on Pickens previously, but after the dust has settled this offseason, his late 2024 1st price makes a lot more sense to me.
Thanks for reading! If you think I know ball, you should definitely go follow my Twitter/X and TikTok pages @bwinknfl. Be sure to visit our full rankings on the DFF website where you can see just how low I have Austin Ekeler, and read up on some other awesome content we’re cooking this rookie season. #DFFArmy
