The Redraft Roundtable is back and ready to attack the 2019 season. What better way to kick things off than to go over some of the big splashes in free agency and blockbuster trades. If you missed part one, you can find that here. The redraft team of Anthony Zaragoza, Mitch Lawson, Aaron Larson, Michael Stephenson, and Kalib Drake answer some great questions regarding the recent moves around the NFL. Enjoy!
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If your fantasy draft was today, where are you drafting Odell Beckham Jr.? Baker Mayfield?
Anthony Zaragoza: I’m keeping Odell Beckham Jr. at the same spot as before, a top three WR. That’s not to say this wasn’t a great move for OBJ or the Browns, but DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams are slightly ahead of the new Cleveland Brown. Beckham’s injury history is always a concern for me as well.
Baker mania will be fierce leading up to drafts in the summer. The momentum for Mayfield was already moving up after his stellar finish to his rookie season. But now, Mayfield has a true #1 WR in Beckham, a great position receiver in Jarvis Landry, and the young and talented David Njoku back for his junior season. On paper, it’s hard not to like what Mayfield has around him. But come draft time, his price will be way too high for me. The fringe of a QB1 is where I have Mayfield.
Mitch Lawson: OBJ is my WR2, just behind DeAndre Hopkins, but ahead of Michael Thomas, Adams, and AB. This move was great for OBJ’s fantasy value, as Mayfield and the Browns offense represents a much better outlook (That kind of felt weird to say). OBJ should be what the Browns hoped either Landry or Josh Gordon would be.
Mayfield is going to be trending way up, and I’m interested to see what that does for his draft position. At the time of writing, he’s QB12. With this offense taking superb shape, and with what Mayfield showed as a rookie I am comfortable taking him in the QB7-9 range ahead of Newton, Wentz and fellow sophomore Lamar Jackson.
With Mayfield on a rookie contract, this was the perfect move by John Dorsey. The Browns could seriously overhaul their image in the NFL over the next couple seasons, and if this move pays off the way I believe it will, we could see the Browns as legitimate contenders sooner rather than later. What a time to be alive.
Aaron Larson: I can’t see Beckham getting out of the first round in redraft this season, and it will be interesting to see just how high his overall ADP climbs as the hype train gains momentum. I’m willing to take him as the first receiver off the board based on his sky-high ceiling. I could see taking him as high as number five overall in any type of PPR format right now, though I’d probably be too nervous about pulling the trigger with some high-end running backs still on the board.
As far as Baker is concerned, I doubt I’ll own him in any redraft leagues this season. Don’t get me wrong, I think he could easily be a top-five fantasy quarterback, but I’m a pretty firm believer in the late round quarterback draft strategy. I would be willing to take Baker as high as the eighth round, but I imagine his ADP will be closer to the fourth round by the time draft season rolls around.
Michael Stephenson: OBJ was my WR1 last week despite the prospect of the ghost of Eli Manning throwing balls in his general direction, now that he will be receiving perfectly placed precision passes from the best young quarterback in the league he is firmly cemented as my WR1 for the foreseeable future. If I were to indulge in early round quarterbacks, which I, of course, do not, Baker would be the fourth QB off the board for me this season. I would only prefer Rodgers, Mahomes and Andrew Luck to Baker at this point in time, colour me hyped fully up.
Kalib Drake: The hype right now, and leading up to the start of the 2019 NFL season is going to be the Browns have a top-five offense. Which means all Browns players ADPs are about to skyrocket to max potential value. OBJ – will not get out of the first round in pretty much any league next season (redraft or dynasty). I project his ADP to be ranked as the fourth receiver off the board, only behind Hopkins, Adams and M. Thomas. Which puts him getting drafted in that 1.10 – 1.12 range. If I were drafting today, I would take him as the fifth best receiver off the board. If he were available for me to pick up at the 1.11 or 1.12, I would happily take him, but most likely there will be someone in your draft who has him projected as the WR1 of 2019.
I don’t draft a QB until extremely late in redraft leagues, as I am your classic “Streamer Quarterback” fantasy GM. So, I will almost certainly have zero shares of Baker next year. He will most likely be the third or fourth QB off the board (behind Mahomes, Luck & Rodgers) and that should see him drafted somewhere in the third or fourth round.
Why do I wait to draft a quarterback until late you might ask? Discounting Patrick Mahomes (who is the outlier of this fact) and look at last seasons final standings for quarterbacks, the difference between the QB2 (Big Ben) and the QB12 (Rivers) was 50 points. Divide that by a 16 game fantasy season, and you will notice that the difference between having Big Ben over Rivers last season only gained you an additional 3.12 points per week. You likely could have drafted Big Ben and Rivers in round 10 of your draft in 2018. The difference between the RB2 (Barkley) and the RB12 (White) you might ask? 99 points. Don’t invest early draft capital in QBs.
Nick Foles is now a Jaguar. Where does he rank among QBs in 2019?
Anthony Zaragoza: It’s not that I don’t like Nick Foles as a quarterback, but I just don’t like his weapons around him. The wide receivers are pretty bland, and his running game is a big mystery with Leonard Fournette. Similar to the early years of Blake Bortles, Foles will do the majority of his damage during garbage time. I’m putting Foles around QB20 to QB25.
Mitch Lawson: I’d say he’s worth a flyer as your QB2 but nothing more. He has less talent around him than he had in Philly, and with a less inspiring coaching staff. However, the QB talent pool is pretty deep this year, so if you like Foles I’d be inclined to wait on QB in redrafts until way late, and pairing him with a guy like Drew Brees or Matt Ryan (QB11 and 13 respectively according to latest ADP). He’s in my QB 21-24 range.
Aaron Larson: Gamer. Leader. Winner. These are all things that Foles has been known as over the past two seasons. One thing he hasn’t been called is an elite fantasy quarterback. His best season came in 2013 when he had an unsustainable 8.5% touchdown percentage running Chip Kelly’s high octane offense with the Eagles. I can’t envision a world in which Foles becomes a top-tier fantasy quarterback under Doug Marrone in Jacksonville. Good for Foles for inking a guaranteed 50 million dollars, but I don’t plan on taking him in any fantasy drafts this fall. I’m sure he’ll be heartbroken when he finds out.
Michael Stephenson: Nick Foles will win the Jaguars a ton of ball games this season, but if I had to guess how many fantasy weeks he will win you in 2019, I’d give a ballpark figure of around zero. Blake Bortles was often very fantasy relevant in his time with the Jags, but this was mostly down to his rushing ability topped up with garbage time scoring. I’m sure there will be spots this season where Foles will be streamable, but outside of deep superflex leagues, I expect Foles to remain firmly on the waiver wire.
Kalib Drake: Nick Foles is a natural leader, a world champion, 88 million dollars richer, and a guy who can certainly make the Jaguars a winning franchise again. However, Nick Foles isn’t going to be worth drafting next season unless you are in a deep, two QB league. DeFilippo was announced as the new Jaguars Offensive Coordinator on January 16th, 2019. So naturally, he signs his good ‘ol buddy from his Philly days Nick Foles to come in and be the leader of his offense. DeFilippo runs a West Coast style offense, which will look different to Jacksonville fans in 2019. They won’t be seeing the old school, pro-style, run it down their throat offense anymore. No, they should see a more modern looking offense with a lot of different personnel packages.
But I do not believe the Jaguars have enough talent on the offensive side of the ball to make Nick Foles fantasy relevant next year. Even when Foles is surrounded by talent, he is a game manager, not someone who is going to “wow” you in the fantasy department. In the past three years, he has only produced two QB1 weeks out of nine regular season starts. While I am interested to see how the Jaguars will look 2-3 years from now, I have no interest in Foles next season. I have him ranked as the QB25 for the 2019 season currently.
Mitch Lawson: No. He’s an obvious upgrade over Kearse in the slot, but both Enunwa and Anderson represent a great potential that neither of them has yet to reach. Enunwa showed tremendous chemistry with Sam Darnold and should continue to be the primary target. Crowder fans will be quick to point out Alex Smith and the QB carousel as reasons for his disappointing season. But unless the Jets transform how they deploy their WR corps, Crowder will still be a possession receiver with less upside than his counterparts.
Aaron Larson: Maybe. Ok, I know that’s a cop-out, but right now I could legitimately make arguments for any of the three. It might come down to whichever one can stay healthy throughout the year, as they all missed some time due to injury in 2019. If they’re all healthy for sixteen games, I’ll give the edge to Enunwa for now, as he seemed to be developing a solid rapport with Sam Darnold early last season before the nagging injuries set in.
Kalib Drake: Easily the toughest question on the list, because there is still a lot of uncertainty with the Jets offense. Though ultimately, no. The biggest question for me is, will Sam Darnold have the same confidence from the get-go in 2019 that he ended the season with last year? I went back and watched all of the Jets passing plays from weeks 1 through 13, and it was pretty clear that Sam Darnold confidence grew as each week passed. Everyone believes that he and Quincy Enunwa had this special connection last year, but I strongly believe that is solely because Enunwa was in the slot last season and running shorter routes over the middle of the field in front of Darnold. They were easier; higher percentage throws in comparison to targeting Robby Anderson who makes his living deep and outside the numbers.
It wasn’t until week 10 of last year where we saw Robby emerge as Darnold’s first read which links directly towards Darnold’s confidence. From week 10 through 13, we saw a confident and comfortable Sam Darnold who was willing to take shots. I think Sam Darnold will pick up where he left off last season, and Crowder will end up last among the three when it comes to opportunities and production. Plus… Crowder not only has to share his middle of the field opportunities with TEs and Lev Bell, but he also has the least amount of RAC yards among the three. I rank them in this order: Anderson, Enunwa, Crowder.