Heading into the 2024 NFL season, we knew the Falcons had to make a change at the quarterback position. Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke simply aren’t capable of being competent NFL starters. It wasn’t a matter of if, but who Atlanta would sign as their new play-caller to try reviving this offense once and for all. Some were projecting Justin Fields to be that guy, while others thought J.J. McCarthy could hear his name called as the 8th overall pick of the Draft. But the front office went another route, giving dynasty players excitement and optimism for the future of these Atlanta skill players. Kirk Cousins signed a 4-year, $180M deal, with $100M in guaranteed money. The contract details give Atlanta an out after the 2025 season, but we can reasonably expect Kirk to be their guy for at least the next two years. Given Cousins’ history of being a high-volume passer, those dynasty players feel the wait is finally over for their Kyle Pitts and Drake London shares.
Drake London
Since February 21st, Drake London has seen his dynasty value rise from WR17 to WR10 in Superflex formats, according to KeepTradeCut. He was widely considered the top WR prospect in this 2022 class, over guys like Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. At 6’4” and 213lbs, London has the size and strength to fight through contact and dominate at the catch point. And his college resume speaks for itself. He produced as a true freshman alongside Michael Pittman Jr. and Amon-Ra St. Brown, and as a junior, he absolutely popped from an analytical standpoint. I think London is the clear Alpha in this Falcons offense, and I’m okay with his price point of WR10. He’s only ever had Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke throwing him the football. Now that London has a quarterback who’s proven he can feed his elite wide receivers, we should see London blossom and solidify himself as a WR1 in dynasty. There are cheaper ways to buy “win-now” points than acquiring London for your roster, but he gives you that rare combination of an immediate WR1 ceiling alongside being incredibly young (he’s still just 22 years old).
Kyle Pitts
Kyle Pitts has also seen a significant rise in dynasty value following the Kirk Cousins’ signing, moving from the TE7 to the TE4 on KeepTradeCut, behind only Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Brock Bowers. While I’m not necessarily against this ranking, I’m less confident in Pitts having a breakout season than I am in London.
Pitts is now entering Year 4 of his NFL career and still has yet to be a top-10 tight end in fantasy points per game in any season. Neither has Drake London, but that’s a bigger ask of a wide receiver. Also, Pitts had Matt Ryan throwing him the ball in Year 1. Pitts’ highest mark was as a rookie in 2021, finishing with 10.4 PPR points. Like London, the lack of production these past two seasons was largely due to the poor quarterback play in Atlanta. Pitts led all tight ends in unrealized air yards in 2023 with 479 yards, suggesting he could have had a much better season if someone could just feed him the ball with a little accuracy.
Receiving Usage
Pitts is listed as a tight end, but he’s utilized more as a wide receiver. He lines up much more in the slot and out wide than on the line, primarily because he’s not been trusted as a blocker. Pitts finished with less than a 72% snap share in each of the past two seasons. His route participation was better, finishing as the TE8 in 2023 and TE13 in 2022. But we’d like to see our tight ends out on the field more consistently if they’re viewed as a potential league-winner.
Kyle Pitts has been a top-2 tight end in aDOT each of the past two seasons, leading all tight ends in air yards share and deep targets. This was the case for Pitts during his time at Florida as well. As a true sophomore in 2019, he had a slightly lower aDOT than usual at 9.8 yards but followed that up with a 13.8 aDOT in 2020. In the NFL, Pitts has had an aDOT over 11 in all three seasons. This may sound like a good thing; higher aDOT equals more big plays, which equals more fantasy points. But for the tight end position, 7-8 aDOT is more of that sweet spot, at least for PPR formats. Let me explain.
Pitts had an aDOT of 12.0 in 2023, according to PFF. No other tight end even hit a 10.0 aDOT last season (minimum 25 targets). Because Pitts isn’t utilized as a traditional tight end, he rarely gets those short-to-intermediate targets essential in PPR formats. Kirk Cousins’ former tight end, T.J. Hockenson, has finished with an aDOT under 8.0 each of the past four seasons. Sam LaPorta was at 7.2, Travis Kelce at 7.0, and Trey McBride at 6.2. We’re treating these guys as the same positional player as Kyle Pitts, but they really aren’t.
Pitts had an insane target rate in 2022 with 34.3% but followed this up with just a 19.3% target rate in 2023 (TE20). Which Kyle Pitts will we get with Kirk Cousins under center? I tend to think he’ll have a big bounceback in 2024 from a target share perspective. But Kirk Cousins will be entering his age 36 season coming off a torn achilles. Don’t get me wrong; I love the signing for London and Pitts. But I think we can all see a world where this signing doesn’t end up being the homerun many are hoping it is.
Pitts Dynasty Value
Valued as the TE4 in dynasty, I’d be fine holding Kyle Pitts for now, but I don’t think I’ll be buying at this price. If I could sell Pitts for the 1.06, I would pull the trigger, as this should land you Brock Bowers if you choose to go that route. Bowers is younger, produced more in college, will have Round 1 draft capital, and is used more as a traditional tight end due to his blocking abilities. I view Bowers as having a higher floor and higher ceiling in fantasy.
If I can get something on top of Dalton Kincaid or T.J. Hockenson (like a future 2nd), I would strongly consider that as well. Kincaid’s rookie season was a mixed bag, but he flashed some talent, has the team investment, and is tied to Josh Allen. Hockenson’s dynasty value has taken a massive hit following the torn ACL and departure of Kirk Cousins. It appears Minnesota will either have Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy under center (McCarthy has -130 odds to be a Viking on DraftKings), and coming off an injury, Hockenson’s immediate fantasy outlook is pretty bleak. But if you’re rebuilding, selling Kyle Pitts for Hockenson and a future 2nd is a very realistic trade that could make some sense. Hock is only turning 27 this season, so he should have several more years of TE1 production ahead of him.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
