We’re just two days from NFL kickoff and that means one of the last opportunities to acquire or trade a player before reality sets in. Once the ball gets rolling there are no more “what ifs” and unknowns. If a player you love hits, you may have already missed the chance to trade for him at a reasonable price. If they bust, good luck finding a suitor with a decent offer. The DFFArmy is doing what we do best, staying ahead of the competition and keeping you overly prepared for year-round dynasty fantasy football.
BUYS
DAVID MONTGOMERY
I want to tell you to buy Harrison Bryant, so go buy Harrison Bryant. But I’ve done that all offseason so let me go a different direction altogether.
David Montgomery is still being drafted behind Josh Jacobs and just ahead of Miles Sanders according to Sleeper ADP and I can no longer entertain the disrespect. Montgomery finished 2020 10th in yards per team attempt (1.70) for skill position players just behind Jonathan Taylor and Davante Adams. Two players, you wouldn’t dream of letting fall past the second or third round of your drafts. Montgomery finished as RB8 in FPPG and RB4 overall in fantasy points scored in 2020. He’s just 24 years old and got a major quarterback upgrade in Justin Fields, with little to no competition pushing to split the carries. His future is bright. This is easy. Go acquire David Montgomery before dynasty managers realize or remember what they have and the price skyrockets beyond reasonable value.
TEE HIGGINS
Take the Ja’Marr Chase blinders off for a second and see Tee Higgins for what he really is, a prototypical alpha wide-out. Though his speed didn’t stand out in his 40-time at the combine, his size-adjusted speed score of 101.3 landed him in the 70th percentile. Other dominant wide receivers like Allen Robinson posted similar scores. Higgins’s 6’4” 216-pound frame combined with his speed create one of the most dangerous matchups for any NFL defender. He caught 67 of 108 targets for 908 and six touchdowns in a year where his star quarterback missed most of the season with a torn ACL. Higgins is just one of 26 wide-outs ever to receive at least 100 targets and finish with 900 or more yards his rookie season. Sure, Cincinnati drafted another wide receiver sixth overall, but that doesn’t make Higgins any less talented.
The fantasy community is down on Joe Burrow due to his slow return from the knee injury, plus a long history of the Bengals making the worst out of good situations, and the stigma is inherently rubbing off on Higgins. Go ahead and acquire him before he inevitably breakouts out in undeniable fashion and it’s too late!
SELLS
ANTONIO GIBSON
Antonio Gibson is being drafted ahead of George Kittle, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and Calvin Ridley. That’s it, that’s the argument.
I mean, honestly, that’s absurd but it’s not just his 28.7 ADP alone that concerns me. Gibson scored 11 touchdowns on 206 total touches and six of them were scored in a three-game stretch against some of the worst defenses in the NFL. I can’t ignore Washington’s insistence on getting Gibson more involved. He is, by all means, a very talented player. That said, his passing work continues to be limited by J.D. McKissic, who led the league in receiving targets by running backs. The Football Team also added Curtis Samuel in free agency and Dyami Brown in the NFL Draft, so the target shares are likely to narrow even further in 2021. Washington has a solid stable of running backs with Gibson, McKissic, and Jarrett Patterson and, with Gibson’s recent injury history, each should see the field plenty.
Antonio Gibson is a very good player and should have success but he’s being drafted as the RB13, which I believe is his ceiling. I’d much rather the return on investment knowing the players he’s going ahead of according to Sleeper ADP. I’m looking to move on to more stable fantasy assets.
MYLES GASKIN
Very few dynasty managers expected Myles Gaskin’s 2020 season for the Miami Dolphins, but the situation and opportunity aligned perfectly for monster production from the former seventh-round pick. Gaskin finished 2020 with 1.68 yards per team attempt and 16.82 PPR fantasy points per game, both metrics compare closely to David Montgomery and Jonathan Taylor’s of last season. So, why am I advising to trade away a running back as productive as a top 10 dynasty pick? Because I don’t believe his fantasy production is sustainable. For one, Gaskin is slightly undersized for a lead NFL running back at 5’11” and 200 pounds. Add in that he’ll be a free agent in 2023 and you have to imagine the Dolphins will be looking to spend decent draft capital on the position next year.
Gaskin could have another productive year in 2021. He’s slated to start the season as their lead back and Miami clearly is looking to get him involved in the passing game. However, I’m completely out on his round seven Superflex ADP. His value has reached near its ceiling in my opinion and that means it’s time to sell. Many are excited for some of the reasons I previously stated but his long-term sustainability is questionable at best.
HOLDS
A.J. BROWN
A.J. Brown’s dynasty value has entered purgatory. The addition of Julio Jones and reports of minor knee injuries this offseason have spooked many who just a month ago ranked him as their dynasty WR1. The issue here is Brown’s value is too high to go acquire him for a reasonable price and the concerns I mentioned prevent you from being able to move him off your roster for something you’re comfortable with. His value is in flux and in these situations, I’d just as easily hold on a wait. We know exactly what Brown is and what he will do in the Titans offense if healthy. He led the team last year with a 26% target share alongside Corey Davis’s 23% in just 14 games played. I don’t see that changing much with the addition of Julio Jones. In fact, I’d be shocked if Brown didn’t receive at least a 25% target share in 2021.
I don’t see a window of opportunity to move on from Brown right now. So, my advice is to hold on tight because not much will stop the A.J. Brown train when healthy.
JONATHAN TAYLOR
I’m really unsure of how 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns on 232 carries were any cause for concern but these days someone will find a way. Some of the distress was due to the team’s willingness to spread the pass-catching work across multiple running backs, but Taylor caught 36 of 39 targets for 299 yards and one score. That’s an outstanding 92.3% catch rate. If you don’t think the coaching staff is going to utilize that skillset more you’re out of your mind. Taylor posted the ninth-best yards per team pass attempt (1.71) among skill position players in 2020.
Trading Taylor at this time would be a bad process. Taylor is still an immensely attractive fantasy asset but his value has dipped considerably due to a crowded backfield, changes behind center, and injuries to both Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson, a key piece of their offensive line. Don’t sell low like many I’ve seen this offseason. Taylor is a force Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack can’t quite compete with long term.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF.
