The off-season is a great time to garner expectations for players entering the new season. There is plenty of data available to tell us what we might be able to expect from most players each season. With rookies, however, it can be much more challenging. We have much less to go off of, and having zero NFL information makes it especially difficult. But we should not get discouraged and give up. We must use what we have to formulate reasonable opinions on what might happen! This way, we can efficiently evaluate these players in both Dynasty and Redraft leagues. Today, I will cover Jordan Addison and what to do with him in Dynasty and upcoming Redraft leagues.
College Profile
Jordan Addison played for USC, he weighs in at 171 pounds and measures 5’11”, giving him a BMI of 23.8. He is a smaller, slender guy, but we have seen players this size be successful, and the size concerns fade after you see the production. He had a 30.0% Dominator Rating (percentage of his team’s yards and touchdowns), a Breakout Age of 18.6 (the age at which he first achieved a 20% Dominator), a best season target share of 39.5%, and a best season yards per team pass attempt of 2.9. All of these marks are considered elite in my rookie database. Addison is also an early declare, a huge green flag for me when prospecting receivers. Finally, in April of 2023, Jordan Addison received first-round draft capital when the Minnesota Vikings selected him at pick 23 overall.
The Analytics
Let us quickly talk about how important some of those numbers are. First, I will show the base hit rates for a first-round receiver in fantasy football (data collected from all players drafted since 2014).
Here we can see that a generic first-round WR has a 24.14% chance to be an ‘Elite’ hit (this means to score 16+ PPR ppg in a season as well as a 13+ PPR ppg season, both within a player’s first three seasons). When we want to call a player a hit, we care about what they do early in their careers. These random first-round receivers also ‘Miss’ at a 41.38% rate (this means they did not have at least two seasons of 10+ PPR ppg or better in their first three seasons). We want to find a way to make this number as low as possible for any prospect we will be potentially selecting.
Let’s now look at day-one receivers that were also Early Declares or Non-Early Declares and see what difference that makes. We can see below that being an Early Declare increases your Elite Hit Rate and decreases your Miss Rate, but when you compare them against the Non-Early Declares, you see drastic differences in hit rates. Jordan Addison was a first-round Early Declare player, but he also achieved 2.9 Yards per Team Pass Attempt. Let’s look at what adding that data point does to the hit rates.
Wow, look at those numbers! When we erase the ‘Misses’ from this bucket, only 7.69% of the players struggled as fantasy assets, and almost 40% would be considered ‘Elite’. Now that we know why we should care about some of these numbers, we can input Addison’s profile as a whole and come up with more precise hit rates as well as analytical player comps and points per game projections.
This table shows the hit rates of players with historically similar profiles to Jordan Addison. We love to see stuff like this; these players do not include a single flop, and an ‘Elite’ hit rate over 50% is fantastic. We can also use his profile to see what previous players went on to score early in their careers. Players with a similar profile to Addison averaged 13.9 PPR ppg as a rookie, 15.91 PPR ppg as a sophomore, and 16.35 PPR ppg as a junior. These are great expectations, but points scored are largely affected by their situation.
Redraft Expectations
I think Addison landed in a fantastic situation as a rookie. The Vikings do not have any threats at wide receiver after Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins is a great passer of the football, and the Vikings love to pass. In addition, the Vikings’ defense has been deteriorating, so we could see this team forced to pass more than ever. It would not surprise me if the Vikings led the NFL in pass attempts in 2023. This is perfect for Addison. Justin Jefferson needs to be double-covered, and T.J. Hockenson will also demand legitimate attention from the defense. This leaves opposing teams using their CB three or even four to cover Addison. With Jordan already being a technical and highly skilled route runner, he should be ready to take advantage of these guys and create separation right from day one in the league. Jordan Addison is the WR37 in Underdog ADP, which is shockingly low to me. I would happily grab him as high as WR25, over Mike Williams. I am excited for Addison in Redraft, and I would project him to be around WR20-24 in PPR ppg for the 2023 season.
Dynasty Expectations
I talked about Redraft first because a player’s Dynasty value is so dependent on how they perform in the NFL. And since we think Addison will perform so well in Redraft, we should be buying, right? Not necessarily. Addison is currently being drafted at the 5.05 in Superflex Dynasty drafts (as the WR19). I think this is perfectly fair; not a crazy value, but good enough for me to draft him there. Dynasty players are already accounting for the fact that Addison is probably good. If he isn’t, he will retain value for at least a year because he is so young. The guys being drafted above him are either old mega-producers, like Davante Adams, or young guys that have shown elite ceilings already, like Christian Watson and Drake London. This does not mean Addison can’t rise above those guys, but why take the risk on a good profile we haven’t seen play when we could take a good profile that we have seen play? This is why I think his price is just fine, and he isn’t a huge buy as he is in Redraft. I think Addison’s career ceiling is essentially Keenan Allen, a dominating slot player who thrives on huge target numbers to score many points. He’s a guy that can be a perennial WR10-16 type of player. A more median expectation could be a player like Diontae Johnson, a guy that puts up steady targets but struggles to get the big yards and touchdown numbers. Regardless, these players have consistently been valuable producers that enter your lineups often.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM; they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy, where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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