Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the current taste of the town. His journey to the NFL was not one filled with high school recruiting visits from Nick Saban and Ed Orgeron (yes, he is that old). The stars next to his name on recruiting websites were all empty, devoid of the yellow fill of high and even mid-tier recruits. Even in college, his first four years appeared to substantiate his recruiting profile. So what happened? How on earth did he become this force of nature?
That is my goal in this article. To understand how this lightly regarded recruit and journeyman FCS college player became what he is today. One of the top running backs in the NFL through 5 weeks.
High School Journey
As a kid, Jacory had a shaved bald head. His friends called him “Little Bill” after the cartoon created by Bill Cosby for Nickelodeon. This is the origin of the “Bill” nickname he goes by today.
Croskey-Merrit began his football career at Sidney Lanier High School in Montgomery, Alabama. This was a short drive from the University of Alabama, where the Crimson Tide was the dream of every high school player in the state. In Merritt’s senior year at Sidney Lanier (2018), he led the Poets to a 4-7 record, bowing out of the playoffs in his final game with a mere 3 points vs. Hillcrest Tuscaloosa. He finished his high school career rushing for 1,363 yards and eight touchdowns.
No, Nick Saban at Alabama wasn’t knocking on his door to come play for the Crimson Tide. Instead, it was Donald Hill-Eley of the Alabama State Hornets. After all, Merritt was only 5 minutes from the Hornets campus, so Eley could make a recruiting trip during his lunch break to see the zero-star Merritt.
So this is usually the part of the story where the unheralded recruit that went under the radar goes to the small school and makes everyone look foolish. Well, that is not how this story goes.
Alabama State (2019-22)
He made the long 5-minute trek to begin his college career at Alabama State in 2019. His freshman year, he played in 4 games, averaging 2.6 yards per carry, before giving his jersey number to a teammate for the remainder of the season. (More on this later.) In 2020, Merritt played sparingly behind starter Ezra Gray, compiling 164 yards and two touchdowns on 3.6 yards per carry. In 2021, he shared the rushing duties with Gray, once again finishing the season with 433 yards and two touchdowns and 3.8 yards per carry. He rounded out his 4-year career at Alabama St., leading the team in rush attempts, but it was Santo Dunn who had a 6.0 rush attempt average on 74 carries to just 3.9 for Merritt on 120 attempts.
New Mexico (2023)
After four years at Alabama St., Merritt entered the transfer portal as a lightly regarded prospect. The SEC powerhouses were still not knocking on that door. He landed at New Mexico in 2023. This is where everything changed, and Merritt became a star. Bryant Vincent was his offensive coordinator in 2023. He credits Merritt for his improvement, saying, “I loved the kid. The thing that stood out was that he was a violent runner, an explosive runner, and his effort was extreme. His mentality and mindset and work ethic — he was in the film room, was a football junkie. He’d carry the ball 25 times a game, and Tuesday, it didn’t matter; he was hurt and beat up, but he had to have his reps. He was the hardest practice player I’ve ever seen.”
It was a complete mindset change for Merritt, who now could see a possibility of a future in football. Merritt rushed for 1,190 yards and scored 17 touchdowns. He averaged 6.3 yards per rush attempt. That is the end of the story for his college career, right? Not so fast. Remember how he gave his jersey number to a teammate his freshman year? Well, several colleges worked with Merritt to help him gain one more year of college eligibility, claiming there was a clerical error at Alabama State in Merritt’s freshman year, and he should have been credited with a redshirt year. Even those SEC colleges finally came knocking on that door. After Quinshon Judkins transferred to Ohio State, they signed Jacory Croskey-Merritt to be their new running back. Unfortunately, that fell through as Ole Miss did not feel Merritt would qualify. This led to Merritt signing with Arizona instead.
Arizona (2024)
Merritt even played for Arizona. 1 game. And what a game it was. He rushed 13 times for 106 yards, 8.2 yards per attempt. He forced an astounding seven missed tackles on those 13 rushes for 53% missed tackles forced per attempt. We like our top prospects to be over 30%. So in that tiny sample, he was outstanding. But unfortunately, that was the end of Merritt’s career. He continued to work out with the Arizona scout team and was even invited to the Shrine Bowl, where he was named MVP with 11 carries for 97 yards and two touchdowns. Despite this performance, Merritt did not receive an invite to the NFL Combine, meaning it was unlikely he would be drafted. The Commanders ended up making him the last running back drafted of the 2025 NFL Draft, the 26th overall running back.
RB1 Analytical Model
Ok, so he was a 7th rounder, 26th overall running back drafted. His chances of making it in the NFL were still a wild long shot. Well, I am the author of the analytical prospect models for DFF. It was shocking to me when Jacory Croskey-Merritt ended up above TreVeyon Henderson in the final RB1 model rankings in May. I promise absolutely no one in our industry had Merrit anywhere close to Henderson. After all, Merritt was the 26th running back drafted by the NFL in the 2025 draft, and Henderson was 4th. I have learned to trust the analytics as they have been highly accurate over the years. This is what I wrote in May about Merritt.
“As surprising as Henderson was at 12, Merritt is equally as surprising, entering the analytical model rankings at 11. I use statistics accumulated at the FBS level only for all players to keep everything on a level playing field, so this includes Merritt’s production at New Mexico and Arizona only. And boy was that production impressive.
Merritt’s 35.3% missed tackles forced per attempt ranked 3rd behind Bhaysul Tuten and Ashton Jeanty. Merritt was able to rank this high despite getting a significant ding to his overall score for his level of competition. He enters a backfield that is lacking in explosiveness in Washington. That is an element he can bring as his 11.1% breakaway run rate ranked second in the class.
Merritt posted a 6.18 in Lance Zierlein’s film grade. Zeirlein states, “Eligibility issues sidelined Croskey-Merritt for all but one game in 2024, but his skills were on full display at the East-West Shrine Bowl in January. He’s a quick processor with adequate size and impressive cut quickness to find yards in a crowded workspace. He has one-cut talent and the ability to break runs sharply across the grain when necessary. He finishes runs with purpose, too. He’ll be a 24-year-old rookie with below-average third-down value, but his talent and creativity pop quickly on tape and give him a chance to become a good RB2 at the next level.”
Rookie Season
Fast forward to the 2025 NFL season. Unfortunately, Austin Ekeler suffered a torn achilles, ending his season. This opens the door wide open for Merritt. After impressing in training camp and in pre-season, he began to earn the trust of the Commanders’ staff and got increasing work each week, culminating in a full backfield takeover in his Week 5 breakout, where he ran for 111 yards and two touchdowns.
Per Next Gen Stats, Merritt leads the entire NFL in rush yards over expected per attempt through 5 weeks at 2.2. He also leads the NFL in rush success rate, which measures the percentage of carries that result in positive Expected Points Added (EPA), indicating the ability to keep the offense on schedule.
It has been a wild ride for “Bill”. Maybe Saban should have knocked on his door during his lunch break. The talent was clearly there. He just needed the right environment to cultivate it.
Sources:
- https://www.ahsfhs.org/
- Movesfantasy – Reddit
- Foxsports-Greg Auman
- Next Gen Stats
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